Gold and Silver Option Calendars for 2018 - Comex Options Expiration For Precious Metals 26 December

As you can see there will be an option expiration for the January 2018 contracts for gold and silver futures on the Comex.

Within the next few days I will mark the more important contract months on the calendars.

For example, the trading for the February gold contract has the most volume by far compared to January.

Comex Gold and Silver Options Calendars for 2017

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bounce on FOMC Day - 2014 Comex Options Calendar

Gold caught a bid today, largely driven I think by the exceptional weakness in the emerging market currencies and sustained buying of physical in Asia and the Mideast.

Silver lagged gold once again, which gives some credence to the 'flight to safety' idea.

The miners caught a serious bid which was a nice change of pace. It was interesting to see a news item that some ex-JPM bankers have raised $375 million to make some investments in the mining sector.   Cheat 'em, beat 'em, and eat 'em.  You keep what you kill is the creed of the Economic Hitmen.  

There is quite significant overhead resistance to gold both in terms of the downtrend and the 100 day moving average.

I am sorry that I failed to mention the February gold options expiration this week.   I have included the calendar for the rest of the year below.

The Comex warehouses saw no movement of gold bullion in or out.

Have a pleasant evening.

Comex Metals Option Expiration For Remainder of the Year - Hedge Fund Buying Metal Shares

As a reminder, next Monday is the March option expiration for gold and silver at the Comex.

Here is an interesting blurb on the steps the government of India is taking to dampen gold imports: fractional reserve bullion. I wonder where they got this idea?

"The government recently stopped requiring gold-backed exchange-traded funds to hold physical gold in the amount of their sales. Instead, the funds will be allowed to deposit some gold with banks who in turn can lend it to jewelers, which in theory should reduce imports for a time."

India Cultural Demand Defies Gold Curbs

And there is this tidbit:

"SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, quietly positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments during Q4 2012.

Of great interest is the structure of those positions. They are indicating, that the firm is expecting a massive spike in both gold and silver, as well as a staggering move higher in the mining shares."

SAC Puts $240 Million into Gold/Silver/Mining Shares Investments

As you may recall, it is Stevie Cohen's cohorts who are being frisked up for having traded on non-public information. Naw, couldn't be.

Gold and Silver Option Expiration Calendar for 2013

I put together a calendar for the gold and silver option expirations based on the Comex contract information.  I looked for one with the usual suspects and could not find it.

The Comes does not have any silver options listed yet for October and November.

I will try and update any changes which they make as they year goes on.

Much Ado About Lease Rates - FOMC and Option Expiration

Here is the update from the LBMA on the Gold Forwards.

It shows little change, and even a slight increase today Monday.

The LBMA do not update LIBOR in real time, but do so with a lag. 

I did not see anything untoward in the LIBOR rates on another site, so I suspect that Kitco will be revising their charts sometime.

The only negative I see for gold is that this is an FOMC week.  And of course today is the February Option Expiration on the Comex.

The expiration date for the February 2013 options contract for Copper Option (HX), Gold Option (OG), and Silver Option (SO) is Monday, January 28, 2013.

I would not mind hearing an explanation for those Kitco gold lease prices chart from either Kitco or Sharefin.

Net Asset Value Premiums Of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Bear raid on the metals this afternoon was hard to miss.

Here is the Comex Metals Calendar for the rest of the year.

Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiration

Today was the last trading day of the month for most US firms.

To preserve and protect, the Wall Street monopoly that is, those vigilant folks at the Gensler CFTC have acted to prohibit Americans from punting their opinions on Intrade. This decision did not take the requisite four years it seems to take that august body of regulators to do anything of benefit for the average American investor.   CFTC Decides to Shut Down InTrade For Americans

The metals went out on a quiet expiration, with a decent amount of options closing in the money. They will be converted to active futures contracts tomorrow. I expect some market action on this.

Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day

Fed Warns of Risk of Financial Cyber Attacks

Closer Look at Gold Chart's "Cup and Handle" and the Handle Details - Blitzsilberkrieg

As a reminder there are option expiration in gold and silver on the Comex next week on Tuesday the 27th.

My friend Dave says he sees a bulge around 1800 in the gold option positions that could mark the heart of the resistance. This coincides with my own thinking.

As you know, I have anticipated this inverse H&S targeting that outer perimeter from 1790 to 1810 of the bears' Maginot line at 2000-2100.

Let's see if gold can be broken out by a distracting run from silver that shocks the bullion banks in a blitzsilberkrieg, a quick advance from out of this trading range to to upper limits of resistance at 40.

The terrain is easily marked as in the last chart below, and the potential for it is in the market positioning of bullion demand and the big paper shorts.

Comex Options Calendar For the Remainder of 2012

Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day
Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day

Key Comex Dates for Gold and Silver To Year End and Updated 'Shadow Gold Chart'

In addition to the end of quarter mark to market boogie woogie, which I think is responsible for quite a bit of the stock market action, there are also a few key things happening in the gold and silver futures markets this week that also provide the occasion for some 'technical trading.'

Harvey Organ reminds us that the metals often get 'hit' as an active month rolls over, to discourage speculators from taking delivery on their contracts.  This is often marked by the 'first notice day.'

In the short term the markets are a bit treacherous because of the lack of enforcement of the basic rules that govern healthy markets.  In the longer term these things tend to become just noise.

Pick whatever time frames you wish, but know the character of the markets in which you choose to participate.

Also bear in mind that during times of excessive market speculation because of hot money and lax regulation, information sources are often used and even co-opted to help to shape 'perceptions.'

This may even be unconscious if the information provider does not view certain stories that are offered at certain times with a skeptical eye. A little truth broadly embellished and assigned is the most reliable sort of lie.

Sept. 26 Comex October miNY gold futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September silver futures last trading day
Sept. 27 Comex October gold options expiry
Sept. 28 Comex September gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October E-mini gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October gold futures first notice day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex October silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October gold futures last trading day
Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day

The formation will not be valid until the previous high is exceeded and there is a clear breakout, or a handle is set for a 'cup and handle.'

Next Tuesday 26 June Is Silver July Options Expiration - Shenanigans Reminder

Perhaps the reminder is a bit late, and the shenanigans have already occurred.

Although both gold and silver were hit hard around the FOMC meeting announcement, silver has been hit a bit harder.

Most curiously in yesterday's big down day the overall open interest EXPANDED by about 6,000 contract, mostly in the outer months of Sept - Dec. My friend Dave brought this to our attention this morning as Bill and some of the guys were discussing it.

Comex silver o/i went up +6034 contracts yesterday. Sept silver was up +4617, Dec silver up +976. July actually increased +147. This would be unusual for a day like yesterday but also very unusual given the July "contract roll" period is starting.

We did not see a similar expansion in gold open interest.

I cannot help but think that this is related to the July silver option expiration on the Comex next Tuesday and the end of trading.

I also have it in the back of my mind, subject to more data, that there has been an effort to depress the price of silver around the end of quarter as a few certain big shorts seek to make the losses on their silver short positions look a little better. But for now that is speculative.

So, unless the exchange report was incorrect, it is very odd for a large expansion in silver to occur on a huge down day, unless there was something like manipulative shorting.

As always, one must assume the lampreys are riding the momentum trade with the sharks. A hit on metals at the FOMC meeting is a traders' commonplace.

June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
July 26 Comex August gold options expiry
July 26 Comex August copper options expiry
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July silver futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July copper futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August E-mini copper futures last trading day
July 31 Comex August gold futures first notice day
July 31 Comex August copper futures first notice day

Comex and Nymex Metals Calendar for 2012; Something Nasty on the Way?

A few people have asked me to post the complete Comex Metals Calendar for 2012.

So here it is, and you can find it here. I am afraid that the usual futures brokers have not published a handy pocket calendar of the key dates again this year, possibly as MF Global has cast a general pall on enthusiasm for the markets.

As a word of caution for all you amateur analysts, not all expirations and key dates are created equal. And the equations that drive prices, especially in the short term, are multi-variate with multi-dimensional lags and secondary and tertiary effects.

I used to be able to derive decent intermediate term multivariate regressions for certain commodity prices even a few years ago, but lately the markets seems to have become just a shoving match with less rational linkage to the real world than one might imagine.

This is probably the effect of the Fed's ZIRP policy, with the buying and selling of bonds and other instruments in the market at non-market prices, causing the subornation of the pricing of risk that makes most other value discovery just a short term shell game.

And of course the market regulators have pretty much rolled over for the insiders at every key juncture. At least the long term fundamentals prove resilient, but only over the longer term. Negative real interest rates as a powerful force even in la la land.

I have this nagging suspicion that there will be a major break in the equity and other paper markets, possibly tied to some non-market macro event, in the first half of this year, likely in March. I cannot say how the metals will react because that depends on the nature of the trigger event and manner in which the crisis unfolds.

I do like the model of the deflationary withdrawal of the sea of liquidity with the subsequent tsunami of paper. But that is too textbook perhaps.

It is likely, however, that the pigmen will once again place an offer on the table that they think the people cannot refuse. Or the refusal will be ignored by the peoples' representatives even if they do object, as happened in the manner of TARP.

Fear and confusion in the herd creates opportunities for the predators of all stripes. The best remedy would be for the more moderate elements in the Tea Party and the Occupy movement to find common cause and put aside their emotions, but that is not likely since such popular movements of discontent are often led at the extremes and by popular emotions. The lack of leadership and platforms has immunized the OWS movement so far, but one wonders if it can last.

The same coming together of moderate Muslims, Christians and Jews of good will would be effective for promoting the cause of justice for that matter. But there is nothing worse than a family fight among children when it comes to arguing about who is their father's favorite, no matter what their father has said, and the tasks that has given them to do.

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

The great mass of independents seem to be angry, but do not know whether 'to shit or go blind' as the colloquialism goes. History suggests that they will first do the latter, then the former. But there are a range of possibilities.

Feb. 23 Comex March silver options expiry
Feb. 23 Comex March copper options expiry
Feb. 24 Nymex February platinum futures last trading day
Feb. 24 Nymex February palladium futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February E-micro gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March E-mini copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March miNY silver futures last trading day
Feb. 29 Nymex March palladium futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March silver futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March copper futures first notice day
March 16 Nymex April platinum options expiry
March 20 Nymex April platinum futures first notice day
March 27 Comex April gold options expiry
March 27 Comex April copper options expiry
March 28 Comex April miNY gold futures last trading
March 28 Comex March silver futures last trading day
March 28 Comex March copper futures last trading day
March 28 Comex April E-mini copper futures last trading day
March 28 Nymex March palladium futures last trading day
March 29 Comex April E-mini gold futures last trading day
March 30 Comex April gold futures first notice day
March 30 Comex April copper futures first notice day
April 25 Comex May copper options expiry
April 25 Comex May silver options expiry
April 26 Comex April gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April E-micro gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May E-mini copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May miNY silver futures last trading day
April 26 Nymex April platinum futures last trading day
April 27 Comex April silver futures last trading day
April 30 Comex May silver futures first notice day
April 30 Comex May copper futures first notice day
May 24 Comex June gold options expiry
May 24 Comex June copper options expiry
May 26 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May silver futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June E-mini copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 31 Comex June gold futures first notice day
May 31 Comex June copper futures first notice day
May 31 Nymex June palladium futures first notice day
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June E-micro gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July E-mini copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 27 Nymex June palladium futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
June 29 Nymex July platinum futures first notice day
July 26 Comex August gold options expiry
July 26 Comex August copper options expiry
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July silver futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July copper futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August E-mini copper futures last trading day
July 27 Nymex July platinum futures last trading day
July 31 Comex August gold futures first notice day
July 31 Comex August copper futures first notice day
Aug. 28 Comex September copper options expiry
Aug. 29 Comex August gold futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August copper futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August silver futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August E-micro gold futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex September E-mini copper futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex September miNY silver futures last trading day
Aug. 31 Comex September silver futures first notice day
Aug. 31 Comex September copper futures first notice day
Aug. 31 Nymex September palladium futures first notice day
Sept. 21 Nymex October platinum options expiry
Sept. 25 Comex October copper options expiry
Sept. 26 Comex October miNY gold futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September copper futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September silver futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex October E-mini copper futures last trading day
Sept. 27 Comex October gold options expiry
Sept. 28 Comex September gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October E-mini gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Nymex September palladium futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October gold futures first notice day
Sept. 28 Comex October copper futures first notice day
Sept. 30 Nymex October platinum futures first notice day
Oct. 25 Comex November copper options expiry
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Nymex October platinum futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex October silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex November E-mini copper futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October copper futures last trading day
Oct. 31 Comex November copper futures first notice day
Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day
Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day

Silver Option Expiry Next Week

Source: CME Group 2012

Feb. 23 Comex March silver options expiry
Feb. 23 Comex March copper options expiry
Feb. 24 Nymex February platinum futures last trading day
Feb. 24 Nymex February palladium futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February E-micro gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March E-mini copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March miNY silver futures last trading day
Feb. 29 Nymex March palladium futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March silver futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March copper futures first notice day
March 16 Nymex April platinum options expiry
March 20 Nymex April platinum futures first notice day
March 27 Comex April gold options expiry
March 27 Comex April copper options expiry
March 28 Comex April miNY gold futures last trading
March 28 Comex March silver futures last trading day
March 28 Comex March copper futures last trading day
March 28 Comex April E-mini copper futures last trading day
March 28 Nymex March palladium futures last trading day
March 29 Comex April E-mini gold futures last trading day
March 30 Comex April gold futures first notice day
March 30 Comex April copper futures first notice day
April 25 Comex May copper options expiry
April 25 Comex May silver options expiry
April 26 Comex April gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April E-micro gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May E-mini copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May miNY silver futures last trading day
April 26 Nymex April platinum futures last trading day
April 27 Comex April silver futures last trading day
April 30 Comex May silver futures first notice day
April 30 Comex May copper futures first notice day
May 24 Comex June gold options expiry
May 24 Comex June copper options expiry
May 26 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May silver futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June E-mini copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 31 Comex June gold futures first notice day
May 31 Comex June copper futures first notice day
May 31 Nymex June palladium futures first notice day
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June E-micro gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July E-mini copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 27 Nymex June palladium futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
June 29 Nymex July platinum futures first notice day

The Next Two Dates to Watch for Comex Option Expiration in the Metals

Keep an eye out for the next two Comex option expirations in the metals, both tomorrow 26 October but in particular the December expiry on 22 November. Perhaps not so much tomorrow but the days after. And of course December is a key month. I see resistance at 1720 that may prove to be important.

And never forget how the metals markets were ruthlessly slammed down into the October expiration on Sept 27, when the shills and apologists for the banks and hedge funds tell you how sound and fair the markets are, and denounce any evidence to the contrary.

Sometimes it seems that, as Chris Powell so astutely observed, "there are no markets anymore, just interventions."

This is what Markopolos faced when attempting to expose the great Madoff fraud, and it repeats almost endlessly in times of sanctioned corruption. Evidence is gathered by outsiders, presentations are made and ignored, the testimony of whistleblowers is ridiculed and even assaulted, the fraudulent scheme falls in a collapse, the public is tasked to absorb the losses and insiders keep their gains, and the many enablers move on as the public is distracted and forgets.

Nothing will change while crime pays. And even as things change, reform is taken away from the hands of the people, and carefully managed in back rooms and private deals.

"The most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform."

Alexis de Tocqueville

Those in positions of authority and beneficiaries of the status quo understand this well. That is the credibility trap that is the impediment to recovery. Reform is an impulse to be carefully managed and directed by the insiders, and those who are implicated in corruption and sometimes even great crimes. The benefits of genuine reform are secondary to the appearance that 'something is being done.'

And if the charade goes on long enough, the people begin to take to the public squares and the streets, because they are otherwise being ignored, betrayed and abused.

The moment is most dangerous when the decision is made whether to answer the people with change, or stifle their just complaints with repression. Then the die is cast, and the great moment of history truly begins.

It is good to see gold open interest on the Comex at relatively low levels here, as the commercials continue to cover ahead of the enactment of position limits, projected to occur in the first month of 2012.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Breath-Taking Rally, But Will the Dog Bark, Or Not?

Detective Gregory: "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Detective Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."

Arthur Conan Doyle, The Adventure of Silver Blaze

Gold rallied hard on a short squeeze and then settled back and closed around the 1850 area. Somebody stop me! LOL

Comex Option Expiration Next Week.

AND the Fed meets at Jackson Hole at the Kansas City Fed's annual soiree.

Let's see what happens. That may be very telling with regard to what inning of this game we are in depending on how gold acts here, and to what extent we see a correction, consolidation, or a continuation.

There are rumours of margin increases and an indication from a large US broker in the last document below. They do like to run things up so they can then smack them down, as they did with silver.

Besides, we can't let Venezuela's Chavez have his evil way with things can we?

My forecast was for a run to 1850 on the short cover, and that was exceeded. Now I would look for a very serious attempt at a bear raid, and some sort of correction. If that bear raid fails for whatever reason, this thing will have legs to the upside, but watch for the secondary attacks after expiration.

The key variable is a fresh wave of monetary and global crisis or some announcement of some version of QE3, even if it is just an interest rate program on the longer end.

Unless that is, if we are tottering very close to one of those game changing things that catches us by surprise.  Well, everyone except all those who knew it would happen, at least, after it does.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - La Douleur du Monde - Option Expiry Fizzle?

Although there were some efforts to push down price in the thin hours, the debt ceiling showdown has a bid under the metals, so most of the action was in capping the price to keep it manageable. So what next, declare victory and go home?

When Comex options expire, the holder receives an active long or short position in the contract the next day. And so we will have quite a few new futures contracts issued tomorrow given the number of 'in the money' calls.

The buyer of an option on a future contract is taking limited risk. Conversion to the actual futures contract itself, however, leaves the owner with substantial downside risk, so that holder often places a 'stop loss order'.

The Street crawlers can see those stops and their clustering and will often test that number and give the newbies a 'gut check' to see how serious they are.

But against that is the debt ceiling drama, so it might be quite quick unless there is some news being spread, even if it is only behind the scenes. There is quite a bit of that leakage going on in Washington these days.

The Dollar took a bit of a dive today, but is still above the critical support levels.

The actual mechanics of the debt ceiling timing are a bit more complex than many believe. Technically the Treasury can muddle along until August 15 I think given the need for new funding issuance, although the Credit Rating cartel has the power to rattle their pens and frighten everyone. But these things tend to involve anti-climactic moments and a dragging on. So timing is tough.

Certainly a deal or delay will be sought for Sunday evening before the Asian open. It is going to be a tough trade to decide how to go into the weekend.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - August Option Expiry Next Week

Gold and Silver have risen quickly to a very important resistance level. I do not yet consider this an achieved breakout.

There are strong cross currents in these markets, the global sovereign debt situation in Europe, and the less remarked situation in the domestic US, highlighted but not captured by the debt ceiling debate which is more of a showpiece than a serious change and prioritization.

I suspect that if the US comes to a resolution of its troubles, for a few days at least the markets will rally, and the metals and perhaps Treasuries will be beaten like rented mules.

However, the looming crisis in Europe, which has the banks salivating for cheap national assets, is going to continue to weigh on markets by posing systemic risk in the manner of Lehman Brothers.

And as a reminder, the August Comex Options Expiration is next week.

I thought it was interesting that the US dollar has failed to rally along with Gold and Silver, at least to the same extent of breaking out to new highs.

Robert Baer, a distinguished ex-CIA officer, published a warning from his own knowledge and sources about a regional conflict in the Mideast in September between Iran and Israel. For now I consider this 'sabre-rattling,' and if Baer had not chimed in I would not even bother to mention it.

I would keep an eye on any developments, although these concerns are not new. Such a conflict, if it occurs, would have some benefits to a powerful few, but pose a significant risk to the many.   Macro events and crises such as war can be used to hide a multitude of sins, but like most deadly things involving the will to power, they sometimes are difficult to control for other ends.

Weekly US Economic Calendar - June Stock Options Expiration on Friday

Here is the weekly US economic calendar courtesy of Briefing.com.

As a reminder, this Friday is the 3rd of the month, and therefore a US stock market option expiration for June. Shenanigans are anticipated.

The expiration for July precious metals will not occur until the last week of the month on June 27.

Silver: Eligible Versus Registered and About That Big Inventory Change at Scotia Mocatta

Let's refresh our understanding of the difference between registered and eligible status at the Comex. 

"Comex has two categories of silver in its warehouse.

The eligible category means that the silver is in a condition that conforms to the standards of delivery. Size and quality of the bar in other words. It is being stored at the Comex warehouse, but is not offered for delivery into contracts.

Registered means that the silver is available for delivery to those who demand bullion by being registered as such with a bullion dealer, in addition to being in a fit condition to satisfy the contract.

Eligible silver can become registered and deliverable if the owner of the silver declares it saleable at some price. And of course if it is there, and otherwise unemcumbered by senior obligations or conspicuous absence."

Registered Ounces Available for Delivery at the Comex

The eligible silver stocks and that of the daily metal warehouse statistics are limited to silver bars that meet the Exchange's criteria for delivery. This criteria specifies that a silver bar must weigh 1,000 troy ounces, plus or minus 10% and be on the Exchange's Official List of Approved Refiners and Brands for silver.

In order for eligible metal to become registered metal, the owner of the metal must have an Exchange Licensed Depository (like Scotia Mocatta) issue a Depository Receipt (Warrant) on those silver bars meeting Exchange standards comprising 5,000 troy ounces (plus or minus 6%) stored at its facility.

It is not a particularly difficult operation to change bars from eligible to registered status, and vice versa. It is a matter of the actual owner's intent. It is a little more difficult to have a new bar introduced to the warehouse and certified as eligible, meeting the criteria of the exchange as stated above.

Some traders use the term dealer to mean deliverable, and customer to signify eligible. 

There may be other types of bullion in non-standard forms, such as coins or odd or smaller bars, stored for a fee at Comex, but these are not of interest to us here.

Here is Harvey Organ's take on the silver inventory at the Comex this evening.

"We have just received tonight's inventory changes and it is a dandy. First of all, there were no deposits of silver into the dealer and no deposits into the customer.

There was a rather large withdrawal of silver from one customer of 119,400 oz ( from Scotia). We had another 999 oz from the Delaware vault. Thus total withdrawal: 120,399 oz.

Now the fun begins: We had a massive 5,287,142 oz adjustment whereby the dealer repaid a customer for a prior commitment or a seller had cold feet and decided not to sell his silver and it returned to eligible silver (not for sale) or this is a settlement whereby silver is finally delivered to a patiently waiting long.  Ladies and gentlemen..something is up!! The adjustment was in the Scotia vault. Let us see if this silver leaves the Scotia vault."

Turmoil in Silver and Gold at the Comex - Harvey Organ

I suspect the silver has been taken off the market for delivery into some obligation, for example, delivery to an outstanding purchase from a fund like the Central Fund of Canada, Sprott, or some other large customer, perhaps even a sovereign entity (hint here be rumours). But perhaps it is just a customer who has changed their mind about the prospects for silver.

This is what happened. It could be quite bullish depending on what happens to it, as Harvey indicated.

Here is Adrian Douglas' Marketforce Analysis summary of changes to the Comex Inventories.

SILVER

ZERO ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s (registered) inventory
120,399 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) inventory
Total dealer inventory 35.76 Mozs
Total customer inventory 67.24 Mozs
Combined Total 103.00 Mozs

GOLD

139,996 ozs withdrawn from the dealers (registered) category
70,796 ozs deposited in the customer (eligible) category
Total dealer inventory 2.11 Mozs
Total customer inventory 8.90 Mozs
Combined Total 11.01 Mozs

Adrian's analysis appears each day after the market close in Bill Murphy's metals discussion at LeMetropole Cafe. This is where I first learned about the lesser known aspects of the metals markets in 2001 before gold and silver started to rally, and it remains a must read for me every day.

Remember we are entering a period of May option expiration at Comex, on Tuesday April 26th.

As I mentioned earlier today, something is obviously up. I am trying to get to some level of understanding of it, and am wading through rumours, innuendo, and speculation. But there is something happening behind the scenes, I am now sure of it. And it might be big, because the usual trading desk chatterers don't seem to know what it is. Or aren't talking.

But I am wondering, are the BRICs going to make their move?  Or is it something else.