Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Beware of Bears - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

 

"Beneath some burning, unknown gaze
I feel my very wings unpinned,
And give my name to the abyss
Which waits to claim me as its own.”

Charles Baudelaire, Lament of Icarus

"When humanity, subjugated by the terror of crime, has been driven mad by fear and horror, and when chaos has become the supreme law, then the time for the empire of lawlessness will have come."

Friedrich Rudolf Klein-Rogge, Das Testament des Dr. Mabuse

"And you could say in some respects this 'shadow behind the power' that makes money off war, period, no matter who's the belligerent, makes money off that volatility now, especially with computers that are able to assist them in doing so, like currency manipulation, for example, or just general speculation.  And they don't care about what they're doing to the real economy, because they're raking in the dough."

Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Colin Powell

“How you are fallen from heaven, Lucifer, son of the morning.   How you have been cut down to the ground, You who laid low the nations.  For you said in your heart: ‘I will ascend into heaven, I will exalt my throne above the stars of God. I will sit on the mount of the most holy on the farthest sides of the north.  I will ascend above the heights of the clouds. I will be as God.’

Isaiah 14:12-14

Stocks were lower today on a repricing of risk (again).

The Dollar was sharply higher, along with the VIX, in a risk off move.

Gold and silver were lower, moving inversely with the dollar.

Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which may move markets.

I am not so sure where the market is going.

Theories abound, including the Fed pivot and the suppport for markets in anticipation of the mid-term elections.

However, we are clearly in a bear market. 

And we will remain in one until we start to see higher lows and higher highs.

So until then, beware of bears.

Have a pleasant evening.

US Equity Rally in Context From the Start of the Bear Market

So far the rally appears to be 9/10ths short covering and momentum speculation.

In order to proceed further and break through some formidable overhead resistance real buying by insitutions and individuals must appear and the volume adjusted cash flows must turn more positive.

In other words, so far a typically impressive bear market rally that may be getting overextended without a serious revaluation of the ecoomic outlook. Next week's Jobs Report may help in that assessment.

The insiders and hedge funds still holding equities would greatly enjoy the stock piggies (institutions, 401k's and private investors) coming back into the markets so they can continue to unload their increasingly worthless assets.



Here is the big picture. It is 'possible' that this is not a bear market which we are experiencing.

However, there is a dramatic spread between 'possible' and 'probable' that even our mighty Fed and Treasury cannot easily diminish with their printing presses.

The Character of this "New Bull Market"

The paid for opinion pundits are touting a new bull market on the Bloomberg today.

Is this a bottom? Well perhaps, but until we see some positive change in the economic indicators that are not paper exercises in thinly veiled accounting fraud we choose to remain in cash and precious metals, while trading the ins and outs on a daily basis, trying to stay out of the way of the antics of the Wall Street wisenheimers.

So far this feels like a distribution rally before a retest of the lows. It is the timing of things that is the challenge, and the ability to spot a genuine change in character in the long market trend.

This is probably not the place for any investors to enter the markets, since the risk is still so historically high, although a little lower by recent standards.

Time will tell. The Fed fooled us in 2004 with their willingness to intentionally create a housing bubble to avoid the near term consequences. Perhaps Treasury and the Fed will cast caution to the wind and do it again, setting us up for a larger, more destructive collapse on the next group's watch.

But the character of this 'bull market' strikes us as the same as that of those who are our financial and political leaders: shallow, false, short-sighted, manipulated by dark forces, self-serving, a pleasant appearance over an underlying rot, and a in sum a terrible disappointment and lapse of the discovery and disclosure of things as they are.

Four Papa Bear Markets Compared

Four Bear Markets Compared by short.com