CrashTrak Update for June 10, 2022 - YTD Performance

 

"Life is a school of probabilities."

Walter Bagehot


I have updated the CrashTrak profile for the lows on June 10, 2022.

That '3rd Low' is obviously a work in progress.

We might even get a new 'failed rally' depending on where the stock indices go next.

Given the duration and the fluctuations I am more open now to the idea of a long, grinding bear market, rather than the quicker resolution of a proper crash.

FOMC and a stock index option expiration next week.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Bonfire of the Banalities - Cloudy With a Chance of Carnage

 

"There is not a more perilous or immoral habit of mind than the sanctifying of success.”

Lord Acton


"It is the belief of the elite that the power of their office is an achievement that rewards them with the right to lie, cheat and steal, both for themselves and their friends.

Although it is most important to understand that they would be shocked and insulted if one used those words, lie, cheat and steal, to describe what they are doing.  They view themselves as exceptionally hard working, and obligated by their natural gifts and superiority.

Through a long indoctrination that starts in their families, but is most often affirmed in their elite schools and among their circle of privileged friends, they learn to rationalize selective moral behaviour not as immoral but as 'the entitlement of our success.'  

And they are supported by a horde of morally ambivalent enablers who will tell them whatever they wish to hear.  There are one set of rules for themselves and their friends, and another set of rules for the rest.

Few who actually do evil consciously choose to be evil.  They rationalize what they do in any number of ways, but the deceit often hinges on their assumed natural superiority, and the objectification and denigration of the other.  We are makers, and they are takers.  Although many may work hard, they see their own work as having special value and merit, while the actions of the others are inconsequential and unworthy.

Given enough time, their rationalizations become an ideology, desensitized to the meaning and significance of others outside their own select group. This supremacy of ideology empties their souls, and opens the door to mass privation and even murder, although rarely done by their own hands.

Jesse, Goldman, Banking, Washington, and Business Ethics, 26 February 2013

To say that the equity market action today was not constructive would be an understatement.

At best we can say that the major indices are going back down to test the prior low, the second low in our CrashTrak model.

Worst case, they are teetering on the abyss.

What was stunning about today for me was the sharp upward movement in gold, silver and The Dollar, all in one of the first coordinated flights to safety we have seen among those three in a very long time.

Needless to say, I am on the highest ground I can find for the weekend.

More inflation and economic data next week.

Stock index option expiration on Friday.

Have a pleasant weekend.