Trifecta of US Economic News This Week

This week we will have the advance number for 1Q GDP, an FOMC rate decision, both on Wednesday, and the April Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday.  And there are a number of the usual suspects like Chicago PMI, Personal Income and Spending,  and the ISM Index in-between.

This Week's US Economic Calendar

The short term trends are very over-extended, with stocks down and Treasuries higher. Gold has unjoyed a spectacular rally. The financial sector has been crushed.

I am looking for some thing that will reverse this process, and perhaps with some gusto. But that is what might happen ordinarily. How ordinary is this?

So for now the trend is the trend, and it would not be wise to get in front of it. But I have trimmed some profits, and opened the way for new opportunities if they come.

This Week's US Economic Calendar - July NonFarm Payrolls on Friday

As a reminder, in addition to the Debt Ceiling Fandango, the real economy continues to chug along.

The market was shocked a bit by the miss in the ISM number this morning.

There are a few more important numbers being reported this week that have the potential to influence the markets, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls.

The July Non-Farm Payrolls report is interesting because like January it is one of the few monthly reports in which the raw actual number is revised significantly higher using a seasonality factor. This provides a fair amount of leeway in reporting the headline number, which itself is likely to be revised a month or two later.

As a reminder, isolated numbers, rather than the running trend, tend to be an integral part of the Wall Street/Washington magic lantern of perception modification.

I always like to look at the forecast from Briefing.com in addition to the consensus of economist forecasts. They run hot and cold like all individuals including myself, but it is good input nonetheless.