"When we are the victims of an illusion we do not feel it to be an illusion but reality. It is the same with evil. Evil when we are in its power is not felt as evil but as a necessity, or duty. Once a certain group of people has been placed outside the ranks of those whose life has value, then nothing comes more naturally than murder. As soon as men know they that they can kill without fear of punishment or blame, they kill; or encourage killers with approving smiles." Simone Weil
An intriguing divergence for two funds that are purported to have a .99 correlation and are tracking essentially the same thing.
Right now, for example, UNG is down .67% for the day and GAZ is up .61%.
UNG is considerably more 'liquid' as they say on the Street. Does that make it a more efficient price discovery mechanism?
Or more amenable for gaming the retail markets?
For now natural gas supplies in the US are above average, and the Energy Information Administration is forecasting a slightly warmer winter than last year in the US Midwest, and slightly colder in the West. The Midwest is the primary consuming region for natural gas and propane, with heating oil in the northeast.
There is some speculation this week that Hurricane Ida may enter the Gulf of Mexico, the first to do so for this remarkably light storm season, and speculators have been given some cheer in the oil and nat gas markets because of this.
Oil may be justified, but barring a selectively devastating storm, natural gas looks to be well supplied. This is the time of year in which we will typically look to place bull positions in the natural gas markets. So far that does not seem to be justified, but perhaps later, just on seasonal variance.
The energy bulls should hope for an abnormally cold winter in the US midwest. Their government does not think that they will get it.
"EIA projects average household expenditures for space-heating fuels to be $960 this winter (October 1 to March 31), a decrease of $84, or 8 percent, from last winter. This forecast principally reflects lower fuel prices, although expected slightly milder weather than last winter will also contribute to lower fuel use in many areas. The largest expenditure decreases are in households using natural gas and propane, projected at 12 and 14 percent, respectively. Projected electricity and heating oil expenditures decline by 2 percent (see EIA Short Term and Winter Fuels Outlook slideshow).
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 1 percent warmer this winter compared with last winter and 1 percent milder than the 30-year average (1971-2000). However, heating degree-day projections vary widely between regions. For example, the Midwest, a major market for propane and natural gas, is projected to be about 4 percent warmer than last winter, while the West is projected to be about 4 percent colder.
EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $70 per barrel this winter (October-March), a $19 increase over last winter. The forecast for average WTI prices rises gradually to about $75 per barrel by December 2010 as U.S. and world economic conditions improve. EIA’s forecast assumes U.S. GDP grows by 1.8 percent in 2010 and world oil-consumption-weighted GDP grows by 2.6 percent.
Energy prices remain volatile, reflecting uncertainty, or risk, in the market. To measure this uncertainty, EIA is tracking futures prices and the market’s assessment of the range in which those futures prices might trade (see STEO Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). The Outlook will now report confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil and natural gas futures prices using a measure of risk derived from the NYMEX options markets known as “implied volatility.”
Natural gas inventories are expected to set a new record high at the end of this year’s injection season (October 31), reaching more than 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The projected Henry Hub annual average spot price increases from $3.85 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2009 to $5.02 in 2010."
Source: US Energy Information Administration
The spread between Natural Gas and Crude Oil is now at an 18 year record low.
Nat gas has fallen from $13 to $3 while Crude Oil soared to $70.
Either crude is incredibly frothy, or natural gas represents an outstanding bargain.
A few years or so ago I published a fairly comprehensive study of the seasonality of natural gas, and some relative relationships with demand and supply. I will look for it, and see if I can update it. Since I no longer trade the futures I have not looked at this in some time. But I do remember the spreads and saw this one grown shockingly wide.
My first thought is that oil has been driven higher by monetary inflation and speculation, which are in some ways the same thing. Hot money craves beta and drives the prices of real assets to extremes.
Keep in mind that if enough people get in on this trade, the market makers who can see your aggregate holdings will use it to skin the speculators, without regard to fundamentals in the short term.
It's never easy.
