Rumour du Jour - a Large US Bank Is In Trouble

As they say on the financial infomercial channels, "US equities appear to be out of favor today."

There are rumours swirling the trading desks that a large US bank is in trouble, and will need some help getting itself re-organized.

The name Wells Fargo has been mentioned, and there is an associated six percent drop in the stock, with a groundswell of put option activity. It does seem like a 'setup' to us. There are also rumours that Cerberus is in trouble (and there is plenty of smoke on that one.)

There is a contrary view that this is a 'setup' to suck in the shorts and help to trigger a massive rally when the Jobs numbers are reported on Friday.

There is a flight to safety into the dollar and treasuries, but interestingly enough also gold and silver, as 'investors' exit US stocks.

So far we are holding a key support level around 995 on the SP futures, and we tend to discount most rumours that make it to bubblevision rather heavily. If there is any real news it should come out in the evening.

Let's see what happens. We're hedged to the short side which is where we have been coming into the day, anticipating a pullback to key support. We're there now.

There was 'good news' today, and the market ignored it and went sharply lower. That may be significant but it is too soon to tell for sure. A breakdown in equities from here would be more significant to our minds.

In sum, this is a highly manipulated market, full of speculation and hot money. The Obama Administration is failing badly to reform the US financial system, and so here we are, trading on hot money and rumours.

Hedge Funds Betting on a Deflationary Market Collapse

The observations herein regarding the nature of this stock market rally are quite in parallel with our own.

Buying the dollar to play the debt deflation trade may also be a good one in the short run, especially if leveraged foreign punters have to quickly raise cash to cover bad bets made in the US markets.

However we would have to add that this scenario assumes no black swans with regards to the heavy overhang of US dollars being held by overseas central banks.

If we were in such a position, we would be selling the rallies, given the huge amount dollars on the books.

Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a “bear-market rally.” Weak growth in household income was among the reasons to be dubious about the rebound’s chances of survival, Tudor said.... (aka the growth in the median wage that we have been harping about - Jesse)


A focus on misleading indicators is driving markets, macro managers say. (Are there any other kind coming out of Washigton or Wall Street these days? - Jesse)

Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions, Harrington said. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.

The housing data isn’t as rosy as some see it, Harrington said. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors, a Chicago-based trade group.

A report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based in Washington, showed the share of home loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent in the second quarter, an all-time high.

Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equity bear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said. Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades, he said.... (That's one way to play it, conventionally, if the swans stay white - Jesse)

The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted in April to relax fair-value accounting rules. The change to mark-to-market accounting allowed companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities that plunged with the housing market.

Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said.

“We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it...”

“Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe to avoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they are losing the battle.”

Chinese State-Owned Companies Object to Face-Rippings, Wall Street Indignant

After one too many face-rippings by the merry Pranksters of Wall Street, China's state-owned companies have run to their government to complain about the fraudulent nature of their derivatives contracts.

The hearty capitalists of Wall Street wouldn't run to their government and whine and complain if the market went against them.

Except of course if they needed several trillion dollars because they lost all their money gambling. Then they would just threaten to hold their breath and wreck the economy until the Great Reformer gave them all the change the country could spare, and then some.

If the US will not put its house in order, the rest of the world will increasingly start to rein in the the US financial institutions.

Reuters
Beijing's derivative default stance rattles banks
Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:42am EDT

For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.

The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.

But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered.

"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.

The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO -- among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year -- had issued almost identical notices to banks.

"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.

Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.

"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association. (or perhaps its more like a son who has been cheated by unscrupulous businessmen going to his father who is a Mafia don with big guns, instead of complaining to the Better Business Bureau - Jesse)

It's also unclear why Chinese state firms, which have complained that their foreign banks sometimes did not disclose full information of potential risks when selling them complicated products, did not seek redress through the courts. (or binding arbitration lol. - Jesse

"If that is the case, these firms should seek through legal measures to safeguard their rights, instead of turning to the authorities for political interference," said a different lawyer. (LOL - Jesse)

SASAC took over the job of overseeing SOEs' derivatives trading from the securities regulator in February after several Chinese firms reported huge losses from derivatives....