Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Rotten to the Core - Second Largest Bank Failure

 

"But perhaps the most stunning piece of news we're getting in the wake of the MF Global collapse is in the clients of the firm who managed to get away scot-free, with no freezing of accounts or capital -- particularly the accounts of the mega-cap independent oil company Koch Industries, run by the politically active Koch brothers.

A recent report in Reuters has described the billions of dollars of client accounts that were withdrawn from MF Global in the last few weeks before their collapse, including 8 accounts from Koch industries engaged in oil trade that were transferred to Mizuho Securities after years of a steady and profitable relationship with MF.

Both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were charged with overseeing MF Global, their clearing member.  If we are to believe them, they had no idea of any difficulties within the firm before customer accounts went missing just a few days before the collapse. 

But someone clearly knew of the cratering positions and imminent collapse of MF Global, as billions of dollars of accounts were "coincidentally" withdrawn.  And what do the Koch brothers say was the reason for these withdrawals?  There's been no comment."

Daniel Dicker, MF Global and the Koch Brothers: Friends to the End, Huffington Post, Nov. 11, 2011


"There are numerous vested interests on Wall Street, in Washington, and in the corporate conglomerates who see nothing wrong in distorting information, 'spinning the news,' and sometimes even outright lying, when it comes to reporting on the economic situation. They are promoting a story, and often an agenda. They hide behind the safe harbor provisions of the law, and the subjective aspects of economics. They use euphemisms such as 'talking your book' to describe calculated deception.

The financial media accepts it, condones it, and does it themselves.  As one financial news anchor, said shortly after the tech stock bubble collapsed in 2002, 'Of course market strategists and analysts lie. Everyone knows that. But no one made people buy those stocks.'

Straight news reporting is less seen in the mainstream media these days, since solid investigative journalism is considered too costly to the corporate management.  Much cheaper to allow paid shills to take scripted shots at one another, in the manner of professional wrestling.  This is how the voters are informed, and how public policy is shaped. And when it comes to economics, the establishment is firmly in control of the message.  The selection of guests is carefully scripted to support a point of view."

Jesse, 9 July 2010

JPM announced the 'rescue' of First Republic Bank this morning, in a takeover subsidized by the FDIC.

This is the second largest bank failure.   Three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history have taken place over the last two months.

The better than expected ISM Manufacturing numbers this morning helped throw the markets into a sharp reversal.

Gold and silver managed a fairly impressive intraday wash and rinse.

The Dollar shifted into rally mode.

Stocks had another ranging day but managed to finished mostly unchanged. 

This may be a data driven week, with the Fed's latest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

The corruption at the Supreme Court is almost on a par with the financial corruption and insider trading at the Fed. 

And its performance falls about as historically short of intentions.

The oligarchy is audacious.

Have a pleasant evening.

Emergency Unlimited FDIC Coverage Extended to Clearing Accounts Until 2013

Someone brought this to my attention, as I had not heard of it. It is not so much what they are doing, but why now?

With recovery supposedly at hand, and the financial crisis over thanks to Ben and Timmy, I wonder why they would enact unlimited FDIC coverage for what sounds like checking accounts and commercial clearing accounts.

The only thing that occurred to me was that in the event of a bank run, it might be intended to prevent another short term credit seizure such as was experienced in the financial crisis.

But why now? And why use FDIC to do take on this unlimited liability, far in excess of what it was intended to do? I doubt very much that this is designed to protect individuals per se, given the exclusions.

Curious. Perhaps I am missing something here.

Temporary Unlimited Coverage for Noninterest-bearing Transaction Accounts - FDIC

From December 31, 2010 through December 31, 2012, all noninterest-bearing transaction accounts are fully insured, regardless of the balance of the account and the ownership capacity of the funds. This coverage is available to all depositors, including consumers, businesses, and government entities. The unlimited coverage is separate from, and in addition to, the insurance coverage provided for a depositor’s other accounts held at an FDIC-insured bank.

A noninterest-bearing transaction account is a deposit account where:

interest is neither accrued nor paid;
depositors are permitted to make an unlimited number of transfers and withdrawals; and
the bank does not reserve the right to require advance notice of an intended withdrawal.

Note: Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs) and Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) accounts are not eligible for this temporary unlimited insurance coverage, regardless of the interest rate, even if no interest is paid. (lol)

Later - here is an old description that probably fits the bill:

"The FDIC's action is one aspect of its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP). The full account coverage is aimed primarily at business accounts that need to keep larger balances for covering payrolls and meeting other business needs, but it extends to all non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, whether they are held by businesses or by individuals and households. The FDIC's goal is to help depository institutions retain such accounts, giving small and medium size businesses a reason to keep their balances with their current financial institutions. That would help the institutions maintain their liquidity, and thus enhance their ability to make loans."

Unlimited FDIC Coverage for Checking Accounts - Banking Questions

So it is a measure to prevent another seizure in the credit system in the event of a major bank failure triggering a financial crisis. Do you think it covered JPM's $22 billion bridge loan to AT&T for its purchase of T-Mobile?

Do you think Goldman has a program to sweep all of their funds and their partners' personal money into accounts such as this at the first sign of trouble? Just as GE pays no taxes, expect Wall Street to take no pain, in the very troubles which they have caused.

As an aside, I would have used the FDIC and the government to backstop 100% of all customer money in the banking crisis, and let the banks themselves go through a debt reorganization, taking the executives, bondholders and shareholders to the woodshed, in the manner in which Sweden had dealt with its banking troubles. In the US, UK, and Ireland we saw the opposite approach: save the banks, and the people be damned.

But then again, I am not a major contributor to the campaign coffers of Washington, nor a member of the old boy network, and chances are, neither are you. So there you are.

As bad as this has been, if you think the worst is over you are probably just being wishful, maybe a little naive. There is still some meat on your bones, and the wolves are insatiable.

AGI News
IMF TO SET UP 580 BILLION DOLLAR ANTICRISIS FUND
Chiudi 09:45 25 MAR 2011

(AGI) Washington - The International Monetary Fund will set up, next week, a 580 billion Dollar anticrisis fund. "The greatest concern is the risk of contagion from Portugal," says a well informed source. IMF's top officer, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, will issue the fund, on the basis of the ratification announced on March 11 by the Nab (New Arrangement to Borrow). Last year, the Nab increased 10 times its initial 53 billion Dollars, thanks to the 13 new member countries.

Five More Failed Banks Cost US Government an Additional $334 Million in Losses

The losses from the mortgage securities frauds and the subsequent bubble collapse continue to debilitate the US financial system, particularly the regional banks, in a slow bleed costing the US government additional millions each week. The public relations campaign promoting the idea that the bank bailouts are done and successful, and that the US made money on this egregious abuse of public monies is patently false, and probably can be described as corporatist propaganda.

The banks continue to mount a campaign to resist reform and regulation. They are taking advantage of the weakness of the Obama administration in failing to reform the banking system through liquidations and managed bankruptcies, including indictments and investigations as was seen in the Savings and Loan scandal.

It is difficult to continue to assume good intentions in this administration, or even mere incompetence. The objections put up by Geithner and Summers to the appointment of Elizabeth Warren as the head of the new consumer protection agency shows how reactionary they continue to be, and resistant to fundamental reforms.

American Banker
Failures on Two Coasts Stretch Toll for Year to 108
By Joe Adler
Friday, July 30, 2010

Five bank closures in four states Friday cost the federal government an additional $334 million in losses.

Regulators shuttered the $373 million-asset Coastal Community Bank in Panama City Beach, Fla., the $66 million-asset Bayside Savings Bank in Port Saint Joe, Fla., the $168 million-asset NorthWest Bank and Trust in Acworth, Ga., the $529 million-asset The Cowlitz Bank in Longview, Wash., and the $768-asset LibertyBank in Eugene, Ore. The failures brought the year's total to 108.

The hammered Southeast bore the brunt of the failure activity, as it has for so many Fridays since the financial crisis began. Twenty banks have been seized in Florida in 2010, while 11 have failed in Georgia so far this year.

The two Florida institutions that failed Friday went to one buyer: Centennial Bank in Conway, Ark. The acquirer agreed to take over Coastal Community's $363 million in deposits, Bayside Savings' $52 million in deposits and roughly all of the assets of both institutions.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. agreed to share losses with Centennial on $303 million of Coastal Community's assets, and $48 million of Bayside Savings' assets. The two failures were estimated to cost the FDIC, respectively, $94 million and $16 million.

Meanwhile, the failure of NorthWest in Georgia was estimated to cost the agency nearly $40 million. The FDIC sold all of NorthWest's $159 million in deposits, and essentially all of its assets, to State Bank and Trust Co. in Macon. The acquirer agreed to share losses with the FDIC on about $107 million of the failed bank's assets.

Elsewhere, the FDIC sold all of The Cowlitz Bank's $514 million in deposits to Heritage Bank of Olympia, Wash., which paid a 1% premium. Heritage also acquired about $329 million of the failed bank's assets, and will share losses with the FDIC on about $161 million of those assets. The FDIC estimated the failure will cost $69 million.

Home Federal Bank in Nampa, Idaho, paid a 1% premium to assume all of LibertyBank's $718 million in deposits, and agreed to acquire $420 million of its assets. The FDIC and Home Federal will share losses on $300 million of those assets. The failure's cost was estimated at $115 million.

Nine More Banks Fail with CIT a Packaged Bankruptcy While Gold Shines in a Jobless Recovery

There was tension-driven selling in the markets today despite the 'good news' in the headline economic numbers. The markets are on edge ahead of the ADP and BLS jobs numbers next week. The much touted theory of a 'jobless recovery' is started to show some big holes in credibility, as well it should.

Jobless Recovery

A jobless recovery is nothing more than a euphemism for a monetary asset bubble presenting an ongoing systemic moral hazard.

Yes, jobs growth lags GDP in the early stages, everyone knows this. A second year econ student might cite Okun's Law, although it is better called Okun's observation, to show that lag, but it is not relevant to this topic. Beyond early stage lags in the typical postwar recession, a business cycle contraction, what is meant by the jobless recovery is the post tech bubble recovery of 2001-5 wherein jobs growth lagged economic growth in a way we have not seen after any postwar recession, with the median wage never recovering. "Jobless recovery" is a relatively recent phenomenon in the economic lexicon, much younger than 'stagflation' which was thought highly unlikely if not impossible by economists based on their theories, until it happened.

It was the housing bubble and an explosion in unproductive financial activity crafted by the Fed and the Wall Street banks that provided the appearance of economic vitality in 2001-7. It was no genuine recovery despite the nominal GDP growth. It indicates a need to deflate the growth numbers more intelligently, if not more honestly, and future economists are likely to 'discover' this, although John Williams of Shadowstats has done a good job of demonstrating the distortions that have crept into US economic statistics. The tech bubble was perhaps an unfortunate response to the Asian currency crisis and fears of Y2K. What was done to promote recovery from the tech collapse and create the housing and derivatives credit bubble was pre-meditated and criminal.

The current state of economics is most remarkable for its arrogant complacency in the face of two failed bubbles, a near systemic failure, a pseudo-scientific perversion of mathematics exposed, and an incredible capacity for spin and self-delusion. The people wish to believe, and Wall Street and the government economists are all too willing to tell them whatever they wish to hear, for a variety of motives. And there is an army of salesmen and lobbyists and econo-whores touting this fraud around the clock.



The Failure of Financial Engineering

The next bubble should provide the coup de grâce when it fails, although the fraudsters might try and spin ten years of a stagflationary economy as 'the new normal.'

There are good reasons for this failure of American "monetary capitalism," and it has to do with an oversized financial sector and a surplus of white collar crime that both distort and drain the productive economy. The current approach is to pump money into a failed system without attempting to reform it, to fix its fundamental flaws, to make an honest accounting of the results. The result are serial bubbles and the foundation for long duration zombie economy with a grinding stagflation that may morph into a currency crisis and the fall and reissuance of the dollar, as we saw with the Russian rouble. It will stretch the political fabric of the US to the breaking point. This is how oligarchies and their empires fall.

CIT Staggers Into Bankruptcy

Trader confidence was shaken by more indications that business lender CIT will declare a preplanned bankruptcy next week.

Approaching Crash in Commercial Real Estate

Also roiling the markets was a shocking warning by billionaire Wilbur Ross of an approaching meltdown in the Commercial Real Estate market which has been anticipated and warned about by non-shill market analysts.

Gold Holds Steady

Gold showed a remarkable resilience today against determined short selling in the paper Comex markets. Here is a decent summary of the case that the gold bulls have been making, in addition to the standard observations about dollar weakness. Gold Bullion Market Reaching the Breaking Point

Bank Failures Hit 115

Meanwhile, nine more commercial banks rolled over this week. Calculated Risk reports that the unofficial FDIC list of problem US banks now numbers 500.

Here is the list from FDIC of all Official US Bank Failures since 2000.

All of the nine banks were taken over by the US Bank National Association (US Bancorp), and were part of the FBOP company in Oak Park, Illinois, one of the largest privately held bank holding companies in the US. It is reported that all nine were heavily invested in real estate lending.

California National is the fourth largest bank failure this year. It lost about $500 million on heavy investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred shares, in addition to overwhelming losses in California real estate.

North Houston Bank, Houston, TX, with approximately $326.2 million in assets and approximately $308.0 million in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Madisonville State Bank, Madisonville, TX, with approximately $256.7 million in assets and approximately $225.2 million in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Citizens National Bank, Teague, TX, with approximately $118.2 million in assets and approximately $97.7 million in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Park National Bank, Chicago, IL, with approximately $4.7 billion in assets and approximately $3.7 billion in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Pacific National Bank, San Francisco, CA, with approximately $2.3 billion in assets and approximately $1.8 billion in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

California National Bank, Los Angeles, CA, with approximately $7.8 billion in assets and approximately $6.2 billion in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

San Diego National Bank, San Diego, CA, with approximately $3.6 billion in assets and approximately $2.9 billion in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Community Bank of Lemont, Lemont, IL, with approximately $81.8 million in assets and approximately $81.2 million in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Bank USA, National Association, Phoenix, AZ, with approximately $212.8 million in assets and approximately $117.1 million in deposits was closed. U.S. Bank National Association, Minneapolis, MN has agreed to assume all deposits. (PR-195-2009)

Rumour du Jour - a Large US Bank Is In Trouble

As they say on the financial infomercial channels, "US equities appear to be out of favor today."

There are rumours swirling the trading desks that a large US bank is in trouble, and will need some help getting itself re-organized.

The name Wells Fargo has been mentioned, and there is an associated six percent drop in the stock, with a groundswell of put option activity. It does seem like a 'setup' to us. There are also rumours that Cerberus is in trouble (and there is plenty of smoke on that one.)

There is a contrary view that this is a 'setup' to suck in the shorts and help to trigger a massive rally when the Jobs numbers are reported on Friday.

There is a flight to safety into the dollar and treasuries, but interestingly enough also gold and silver, as 'investors' exit US stocks.

So far we are holding a key support level around 995 on the SP futures, and we tend to discount most rumours that make it to bubblevision rather heavily. If there is any real news it should come out in the evening.

Let's see what happens. We're hedged to the short side which is where we have been coming into the day, anticipating a pullback to key support. We're there now.

There was 'good news' today, and the market ignored it and went sharply lower. That may be significant but it is too soon to tell for sure. A breakdown in equities from here would be more significant to our minds.

In sum, this is a highly manipulated market, full of speculation and hot money. The Obama Administration is failing badly to reform the US financial system, and so here we are, trading on hot money and rumours.

More Big Banks On the Verge of Failure

The next wave of the financial crisis is fast approaching.

Fortune
Big Texas bank on verge of failure
By Colin Barr, senior writer
Last Updated: July 31, 2009: 1:53 PM ET

Guaranty Bank, which counts Carl Icahn as one if its backers, is teetering on the edge of insolvency. But it may not be easy for regulators to find a buyer.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Guaranty Bank is hardly a household name. But the Austin, Texas-based thrift's looming failure is shaping up as a big headache for bank supervisors -- not to mention a black eye for Carl Icahn and others in the smart money set.

Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed.

Guaranty has $13.4 billion in assets and operates 160 branches in Texas and California -- two of the three best banking markets in the nation, thanks to their size and population growth.

But the bank's capital problems and its smallish, scattered network of branches could detract from Guaranty's appeal, making it tough for regulators to find a buyer quickly -- or without substantial federal subsidies.

"This may not be closed as quickly as you think, since it will require bids and rebids," said Miami banking consultant Ken Thomas.

That means resolving Guaranty's failure is likely to be costly to the FDIC's deposit insurance fund, whose balance is at its lowest point in almost two decades.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. isn't the only one taking its lumps. So have some big investors.

Shares of the bank's parent, Guaranty Financial, have dropped 97% since a group led by billionaire Texas hotel mogul Robert Rowling and Icahn, the renowned New York corporate raider, poured $600 million into the company in June 2008.

Other big Guaranty holders whose stakes stand to be wiped out include hedge fund managers David Einhorn, who was among the most persistent skeptics of Lehman Brothers before its collapse, and Dan Loeb.

"Relatively low franchise value and the fact that two big money investors already got burned on this bank may suggest less interest than with BankUnited," said Thomas, referring to the Florida thrift that failed in May and was bought by a group of private equity investors.

BankUnited had half as many branches and operated in only one state, but had a strong competitive position in the most lucrative counties -- something Guaranty lacks.

Despite BankUnited's relative attractiveness, its sale to investors led by vulture investor Wilbur Ross was hardly a walkover for the FDIC. The deal cost the FDIC insurance fund $4.9 billion.

A big tab on Guaranty would be costly to the deposit fund, whose balance was $13 billion at the end of the first quarter. The FDIC has estimated failure costs on cases since then at $11.2 billion.

A spokesman for the FDIC stresses that it has already set aside an additional $22 billion for failure-related costs in 2009, and adds that congressional action this spring gave the agency access to $500 billion in Treasury credit.

Though Guaranty has been around since 1988, it came public less than two years ago. Guaranty was part of the Temple-Inland (TIN) cardboard-box conglomerate until Icahn pressured the company to split up at the end of 2007. Guaranty shares were then distributed to Temple-Inland holders.

Guaranty's chief executive at the time, Ken Dubuque, assured investors that despite the gale force winds sweeping the financial world, the bank would be safe.

"We're keenly aware of the importance of good credit, disciplines and effective risk management, in good times and in difficult times," he said on the bank's first earnings conference call in February 2008.

But Guaranty's risk management soon was found wanting. The bank aimed to expand beyond lending to the builders of office buildings, shopping centers and houses to new areas such as small business and corporate energy lending.

Because its thrift charter obliges Guaranty to keep 70% of its assets in housing-related investments, the bank matched growth in other areas with expanded investments in housing. That, Dubuque said, is how the bank ended up taking on a giant portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, backed largely by option adjustable-rate mortgages in California and Texas.

"We needed to increase the size of the balance sheet, so that was a relatively risk-free way of doing it," Dubuque told investors in 2008. "We also have liked the returns in that business as well."

But securities backed by option ARMs are anything but risk-free, as investors have learned. Among institutions that dealt most heavily in those were Washington Mutual, the Seattle thrift that collapsed in September with $307 billion in assets, and Wachovia, which was sold to Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) later in 2008. Other big option ARM users included failed California savings banks Downey Financial and PFF.

Losses built at Guaranty over the past year, and Dubuque quit without explanation in November. In April regulators told Guaranty to raise more capital. When that effort failed, they told Guaranty to write down the value of the mortgage-backed securities by more than $1 billion. That move, announced this month, left the bank with negative capital of $748 million, according to filings....

Silverton Bank of Atlanta Fails

Silverton Bank of Atlanta, Ga. fails; 30th of year
By Wallace Witkowski
4:17 p.m. EDT May 1, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silverton Bank, N.A., of Atlanta was closed Friday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, making it the 30th bank failure of the year and the 55th since the beginning of the recession.

FDIC said it created a bridge bank, Silverton Bridge Bank, N.A., to take over operations. The bank did not take deposits from the public or make retail loans, but was a commercial bank that had 1,400 client banks in 44 states. At the time of the closure, Silverton Bank had about $4.1 billion in assets and $3.3 billion in deposits.

The Problem with the Banking System and the Failure of Economics

This is a discussion of the financial crisis and economics between Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman on January 27 in Munich.

It is an important discussion for anyone looking beyond the surface into our current financial crisis.

There is a use of jargon and technical terms at some points but not overmuch. It is useful if you just listen, and obtain what you can, and do not fret over that for which you are not grounded by education or experience.

If what they say is valid, there are enormous implications for our financial system and economics as a profession.

The economists are sure to hate it, in particular the Americans who are enamored of equations and studies to a fault. There is a new school of Economics that will rise out of this financial crisis, as Keynesianism rose out of the 1930 and monetarism the 1970's.

If I had been there, I would have made a stronger point that people tend to use these equations, these irrelevant maps as it were, as 'excuses' or rationales for doing things which they know are wrong, but wish to do anyway because it is to their short term benefit.

Taleb is directionally correct about his prescription for the banking system and financial instruments. Banks, especially large ones, must be simple, transparent, stable to a fault. Hedge funds and speculation is another matter completely.

There was a wisdom in the limitations imposed by Glass-Steagall. More profound than most realize. And the bankers hated it because it limited their ability to game the system.

And this confirms that Bernanke and Geithner and Summers are taking us in entirely the wrong direction, and are going to make this crisis much worse.

You may wish to start this video about five minutes into this recording since it does not start with the show itself, but people being seated.

Taleb and Kahneman Video Discussion in Munich on January 27

Major Banks Will Be Nationalized Eventually: Wall Street's Dirty Little Secret

The dirty little secret that Wall Street does not wish you to understand is that the banking model which the US has had for the past twelve years was unsustainable, it is over and done, and banks must go bank to being banks, and not hedge funds.

Why doesn't the Street wish you to realize this? First and foremost, the days of big bonuses and big earnings are over. Banks will increasingly become, once again, institutions to support savings and lending, with insured depositors accounts as a major source of capital.

The leveraged days and market speculation for the big money center banks is over.

We no longer need big salaries to retain traders in the banks because they won't be doing much trading for their own accounts anymore. That will be left to the brokerages.

They won't be writing insurance, they won't be taking huge short positions in commodities, and they won't be to big to fail, at least not to this degree with single institutions threatening national solvency.

We need to strike a model of what wish to have as a national financial system, and begging to invest towards that, and not try to reflate a bubble that ought never to have existed in the first place.

Nationalization does not mean the banks will be run by the government. It means that they will be taken into receivership, broken up, and made once more into banks. Those which are not nationalized must be constrained by a new "Glass-Steagall" law limiting their ability to imperil the national economy for their own personal gambling interests.

That is the point that is being lost in this opaque analysis and muddled discussion. The Big Money Center Banks will be nationalized one way or the other. The only real variable is how much money they can take out of the system before it happens.


Bloomberg
Dodd Says Short-Term Bank Takeovers May Be Necessary
By Alison Vekshin

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said banks may have to be nationalized for “a short time” to help lenders including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. survive the worst economic slump in 75 years.

“I don’t welcome that at all, but I could see how it’s possible it may happen,” Dodd said on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt” to be broadcast later today. “I’m concerned that we may end up having to do that, at least for a short time.”

Citigroup and Bank of America, which received $90 billion in U.S. aid in the past four months, fell as much as 36 percent today on concern they may be nationalized. Citigroup, based in New York, fell as low as $1.61. Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, tumbled as low as $2.53.

President Barack Obama’s administration is resisting the idea of nationalizing banks, said Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat. “They prefer not to go that way for all of the reasons that we’re familiar with in terms of the symbolic notion of nationalization of major lending institutions,” he said.

The Obama administration strongly believes a “privately held banking system is the correct way to go,” White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters at a briefing today. “That’s been our belief for quite some time, and we continue to have that,” Gibbs said.

‘Leeway’ on Compensation

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has “an awful lot of leeway” in interpreting the restrictions on executive compensation included in the economic stimulus bill and opposed by the banking industry, Dodd said today.

Treasury officials are still examining how to implement the new compensation restrictions and have not yet determined whether they will apply to participants in the administration’s rescue plan or only to banks and companies that get cash injections from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Compensation consultants including Alan Johnson, founder of Johnson Associates Inc. in New York, said the rules may be “catastrophic” to Wall Street’s talent base. The caps made top- producing employees “nervous,” and those who can find other jobs will probably leave, said James Reda, who heads a compensation firm in New York.

“I’m sort of stunned in a way that some people are reacting the way they are about all of this,” Dodd said. “At a time like this, everyone needs to pull in the same direction.”

Dodd also said he doesn’t want U.S. automakers to go through a prepackaged bankruptcy or a “forced merger.” General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. or Chrysler LLC risk liquidation with such actions, Dodd said on the broadcast.

Balance Sheet Recessions and Japan Redux

Here are a few excerpts from an essay by Axel Leijonhufvud at VoxEU which was brought to my attention by xyphius from Japan.

The essay in particular was quite good, but the introductory comments in the email from xyphius were also quite to the point that we've been making here for some time.

"I've been wondering about the consequences of what Japan did in the lost decade and whether there are any lessons to be learnt from it. I remember asking a (Japanese) friend in the early part of this decade (before Chinese Viagra revived the moribund economy) why after so many years with so little to show from policy there was little pressure for change - his reply: "We aren't hurting enough to want to change."

I take my cue from that answer: Deficit spending was a palliative that bought off demands for political reform, and propping up the banks and by extension their insolvent clients prevented a liquidation in which a meaningful transfer of assets could have occurred. In short, the political, bureaucratic and business oligopoly maintained the status quo ante.

What might become of the cocoon years? A horrible festering mess?!"

It could be something beautiful if Japan embraces reform and becomes a more vibrant, open democracy and breaks up the keiretsu economy and the tyranny by bureaucracy. It is as likely if not moreso that Japan would choose a return to national fascism. But having expended the flower of its youth in the last great War, and with zero population growth, Japan would likely need a more youthful ally. War is an old man's game, but younger men provide the fuel.

The object lesson here for us of course is that the US is going down the same path, with a military-financial complex that resists change, and may subject the country to enough of a economic scourging to set the stage for rescue by a 'great man' as national saviour. Fascism was a rather popular choice the last time the world went through a deflationary depression.

To make it pointedly clear, the US must reform its financial system which requires breaking up the big Wall Street money center banks. Once broken up they may more easily be reintegrated into an organic economy, and stimulus may take root in a real economy.

The point is not to save the banks. The point is to save the depositors, the pension funds, and the good regional banks that are banks, and not vehicles of financial engineering.

The dollar must relinquish its role as the reserve currency of the world, because our hobbits, dwarves, and men have shown themselves incapable of wielding that power gracefully. It is too great a temptation and its misuse will result in our own destruction. But we must also reform the international trade system and prevent the blatant market manipulation of the Asian tigers, China and Japan.

There are those who say, "Why can't things just go on as they have done?" The awareness that things have changed will penetrate the public consciousness slowly. It's over. It's done. Things must go forward, and we can never go back. You cannot keep trying to rebuild the unsustainable, because eventually the great forces of probability will crush you.

Our fate should we fail to reform our system is to change into something more horrible than we can possibly imagine.

And here are the excerpts from the VoxEU essay by Axel Leijonhufvud.

Richard Koo (2003) coined the term “balance sheet recession” to characterise the endless travail of Japan following the collapse of its real estate and stock market bubbles in 1990. The Japanese government did not act to repair the balance sheets of the private sector following the crash. Instead, it chose a policy of keeping bank rate near zero so as to reduce deposit rates and let the banks earn their way back into solvency. At the same time it supported the real sector by repeated large doses of Keynesian deficit spending. It took a decade and a half for these policies to bring the Japanese economy back to reasonable health.

The Swedish policy following the 1992 crisis has been often referred to in recent months. Sweden acted quickly and decisively to close insolvent banks, and to quarantine their bad assets into a special fund. Eventually, all the assets, good and bad, ended up in the private banking sector again. The stockholders in the failed banks lost all their equity while the loss to taxpayers of the bad assets was minimal in the end. The operation was necessary to the recovery but what actually got the economy out of a very sharp and deep recession was the 25-30% devaluation of the krona which produced a long period of strong export-led growth. Needless to say, the US is in no position to emulate this aspect of the Swedish success story.

Why not?

The lesson to be drawn from these two cases is that deficit spending will be absorbed into the financial sinkholes in private sector balance sheets and will not become effective until those holes have been filled. During the years that national income fails to respond, tax receipts will be lower so that the national debt is likely to end up larger than if the banking sector’s losses had been “nationalised” at the outset.

No Ordinary Recession by Axel Leijonhufvud

European Bank Bailouts Could Precipitate a Government Crisis

There is talk that European banks may be sitting on £16.3 trillion of toxic assets and could suffer massive losses.

There is a business decision to be made as well as a policy decision.

The prescription for a cure must include the option to nationalize, liquidate, investigate, and prosecute. And above all to act not out of fear, or of vengance, but with a practical and comprehensive justice.


UK Telegraph
European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis
By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
3:50PM GMT 11 Feb 2009

A bail-out of the toxic assets held by European banks' could plunge the European Union into crisis, according to a confidential Brussels document.

“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned.

"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”

The secret 17-page paper was discussed by finance ministers, including the Chancellor Alistair Darling on Tuesday.

National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.

The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.

In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.

“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.

Three Banks Closed on Friday, One With No Willing Acquirer

Utah's MagnetBank closed without an acquirer

MarketWatch
FDIC shuts down three banks in one day amid ongoing credit crisis
By John Letzing

Federal regulators closed three banks in a single day Friday, as the ongoing credit crisis showed no signs of abating.

Utah's MagnetBank became the fourth bank failure of the year, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was forced to directly refund depositors after being unable to find another institution willing to take over its operations.

That marked the first time the FDIC has been unable to find an acquirer for a failed bank in nearly five years, according to FDIC spokesman David Barr. "This bank did not have an attractive franchise value, and not many retail deposits or core deposits," Barr said. The FDIC had conducted an extensive marketing process for the bank's assets, he said.

Salt Lake City-based MagnetBank had total assets of $292.9 million as of Dec. 2, and $282.8 million in total deposits. "It is estimated that the bank did not have any uninsured funds," the FDIC said in a statement.

The FDIC later said it has also closed Maryland-based Suburban Federal Savings Bank, and Florida's Ocala National Bank.

Suburban Federal had total assets of roughly $360 million as of Sep. 30, and total deposits of $302 million, the FDIC said in a statement. Tappahannock, Va.-based Bank of Essex agreed to assume all of the failed bank's deposits, the FDIC said.

Ocala National had $223.5 million in total assets as of Dec. 31, and $205.2 million in total deposits, the FDIC said. Winter Haven, Fla.-based CenterState Bank has agreed to assume all of the failed bank's deposits.

The closures mark the fourth, fifth and sixth bank failures of 2009, bringing the total to 31 since the start of the credit crisis.