24 March 2011

Fukushima Radioactive Fallout Update - Caesium and Iodine About Half Chernobyl Levels


I do not seem to be hearing this same level of detailed information on the financial news networks anymore. I do not watch network televised news at all, so it could be covered there.

Apparently I am not the only one who feels this way.

Lack of Data from Japan Distresses Nuclear Experts - LA Times

The stock touts on bubblevision are busily promoting blue skies and rainbows ahead of the weekend. Nothing to see here, move along. Just send in your money, and we can have endless prosperity. Or at least some can.

As in the US, the public will be paying for the mess created by corporate greed and negligence: Cleanup Costs To Be Born By Japan Taxpayers

New Scientist
Fukushima radioactive fallout nears Chernobyl levels
By Debora MacKenzie
24 March 2011

Japan's damaged nuclear plant in Fukushima has been emitting radioactive iodine and caesium at levels approaching those seen in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Austrian researchers have used a worldwide network of radiation detectors – designed to spot clandestine nuclear bomb tests – to show that iodine-131 is being released at daily levels 73 per cent of those seen after the 1986 disaster. The daily amount of caesium-137 released from Fukushima Daiichi is around 60 per cent of the amount released from Chernobyl.

The difference between this accident and Chernobyl, they say, is that at Chernobyl a huge fire released large amounts of many radioactive materials, including fuel particles, in smoke. At Fukushima Daiichi, only the volatile elements, such as iodine and caesium, are bubbling off the damaged fuel. But these substances could nevertheless pose a significant health risk outside the plant.

The organisation set up to verify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has a global network of air samplers that monitor and trace the origin of around a dozen radionuclides, the radioactive elements released by atomic bomb blasts – and nuclear accidents. These measurements can be combined with wind observations to track where the radionuclides come from, and how much was released.

The level of radionuclides leaking from Fukushima Daiichi has been unclear, but the CTBT air samplers can shed some light, says Gerhard Wotawa of Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna.

For the first two days after the accident, the wind blew east from Fukushima towards monitoring stations on the US west coast; on the third day it blew south-west over the Japanese monitoring station at Takasaki, then swung east again. Each day, readings for iodine-131 at Sacramento in California, or at Takasaki, both suggested the same amount of iodine was coming out of Fukushima, says Wotawa: 1.2 to 1.3 × 1017 becquerels per day.

The agreement between the two "makes us confident that this is accurate", he says. So do similar readings at CTBT stations in Alaska, Hawaii and Montreal, Canada – readings at the latter, at least, show that the emissions have continued.

In the 10 days it burned, Chernobyl put out 1.76 × 1018 becquerels of iodine-131, which amounts to only 50 per cent more per day than has been calculated for Fukushima Daiichi. It is not yet clear how long emissions from the Japanese plant will continue.

Similarly, says Wotawa, caesium-137 emissions are on the same order of magnitude as at Chernobyl. The Sacramento readings suggest it has emitted 5 × 1015 becquerels of caesium-137 per day; Chernobyl put out 8.5 × 1016 in total – around 70 per cent more per day.

"This is not surprising," says Wotawa. "When the fuel is damaged there is no reason for the volatile elements not to escape," and the measured caesium and iodine are in the right ratios for the fuel used by the Fukushima Daiichi reactors. Also, the Fukushima plant has around 1760 tonnes of fresh and used nuclear fuel on site, and an unknown amount has been damaged. The Chernobyl reactor had only 180 tonnes.

The amounts being released, he says, are "entirely consistent" with the relatively low amounts of caesium and iodine being measured in soil, plants and water in Japan, because so much has blown out to sea. The amounts crossing the Pacific to places like Sacramento are vanishingly small – they were detected there because the CTBT network is designed to sniff out the tiniest traces.
Dangerous isotopes

The Chernobyl accident emitted much more radioactivity and a wider diversity of radioactive elements than Fukushima Daiichi has so far, but it was iodine and caesium that caused most of the health risk – especially outside the immediate area of the Chernobyl plant, says Malcolm Crick, secretary of a United Nations body that has just reviewed the health effects of Chernobyl. Unlike other elements, he says, they were carried far and wide by the wind.

Moreover the human body absorbs iodine and caesium readily. "Essentially all the iodine or caesium inhaled or swallowed crosses into the blood," says Keith Baverstock, former head of radiation protection for the World Health Organization's European office, who has studied Chernobyl's health effects.

Iodine is rapidly absorbed by the thyroid, and leaves only as it decays radioactively, with a half-life of eight days. Caesium is absorbed by muscles, where its half-life of 30 years means that it remains until it is excreted by the body. It takes between 10 and 100 days to excrete half of what has been consumed.

While in the body the isotopes' radioactive emissions can do significant damage, mainly to DNA. Children who ingest iodine-131 can develop thyroid cancer 10 or more years later; adults seem relatively resistant. A study published in the US last week found that iodine-131 from Chernobyl is still causing new cases of thyroid cancer to appear at an undiminished rate in the most heavily affected regions of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.

Caesium-137 lingers in the environment because of its long half-life. Researchers are divided over how much damage environmental exposure to low doses has done since Chernobyl. Some researchers think it could still cause thousands of new cases of cancer across Europe.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Strikes Back, La Reine de la Nuit



On Tuesday I wrote:
"Since option expiry is on Monday the 28th, I would expect Blythe to throw some cards on the table and at least take a run at this rally. If it comes it will be in thin trading and likely into the weekend."

Yesterday in an intraday commentary I said:
"Gold is right up against the big inverse head and shoulders neckline around 1440. I am struggling to see a breakout here, but it is possible. The last big neckline breakout took place around a failed option expiration gambit... I take profits, holding bullion but trading paper, and retire to the kitchen for the evening trade."

So gold and silver ran higher today, and then suffered a savage bear raid in the late trade in New York, before Asia wakens, and while the European are eating their dinners.  The CME announced they would be raising margin requirements again on Friday.

Let's see if Blythe can follow through with this tomorrow. I was a little surprised that they made their move today, especially with the news from Portugal, and especially so blatant an intervention. But the financial and political communities in the US are riding high, in the euphoria that comes with self-serving schemes going well, just before their downfall.

"I have no spur
To prick the sides of my intent, but only
Vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself,
And falls on th'other. . . ."

Macbeth Act 1, scene 7. 25–28

It seems to be this way, doesn't it, this pride just before a fall? One has to wonder if it is merely bravado, or if supposedly educated people can be that willfully arrogant and ignorant of the consequences of their actions. And then faced with failure, pride takes the next step, madness is unleashed, and tragedy begins.

"We can never be gods, after all. But we can become something less than human with frightening ease."

N.K. Jemisin

I did come back into the market near the end of the US trading day, buying gold and silver and shorting broad equities in a paired trade, but lightly for now. I want to see what Blythe has left for Act II of this opera buffa.



Blythe Calls Forth Hell's Fire and Vengance on the Silver Bulls



Der Hölle Rache kocht in meinem Herzen,
Tod und Verzweiflung flammet um mich her!
fühlt nicht durch dich Sarastro Todesschmerzen,
so bist du meine Tochter nimmermehr.

Verstoßen sei auf ewig,
verlassen sei auf ewig,
zertrümmert sei'n auf ewig
alle Bande der Natur
wenn nicht durch dich Sarastro wird erblassen!
Hört, Rachegötter, hört der Mutter Schwur!

W.A. Mozart, Die Zauberflöte

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


When the Wall Street liquidity addicts get their daily fix from Bernanke, they can ignore the news from Portugal on sovereign debt default, and the other ominous warning signs in the financial and political systems.

It's a cynical game, in the vein of the financial fraud that has replaced an efficient capital allocation system in the US.

You will not hear economists talk about this problem, just as they did not discuss the pervasive fraud in the mortgage backed securities market before it caused a financial collapse. It is safer to explain what just happened after it is completely obvious to everyone, over and done. And yet they still call for the same old remedies, of either stimulus or tax cuts for trickle down effects, both pointless options when the system is broken.

The Fed and the Treasury think they can support the economy by keeping the stock market up.   The wiseguys on Wall Street will continue to encourage and take advantage this policy error, transferring the wealth generated by debasing the public money into their own pockets, while the regulators are paid to look the other way. It is very remniscent of the failing Soviet empire and the rise of the oligarchs.

That is what is happening now.  This is why gold and silver continue to rise despite the best efforts of the financial engineers to halt this 'alarm system.'

There is a day coming in the not too distant future when many will realize the situation as it really is, and then there will be a panic.