19 November 2014

Efficient Markets Driven By Symmetrically Available Information - Algorithmic!


"What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how
infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and
admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like
a god! the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals."

William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Who could turn a blind eye to such obvious market abuses?   They must hate us for our efficient markets and deliberate, data-based price discovery.
 
Oh yeah, the active December delivery month is right around the corner, and their cupboards, while not necessarily bare, are packed with IOUs.  And gold is threatening to break out at a key resistance level. 
 
So volatility is not unexpected.   What is disturbing, however, is the blatant price manipulation and running of stops by big players acting with impunity, with the implicit endorsement of the exchange and regulators who can see nothing, and know nothing.
 
And both China and Russia are buying gold.  And the Western banks do not like it, because it seems like a threat to the supremacy of the Dollar.
 
So let's blame the Swiss.  Swiss Gold Poll Shows 47% Nein
"Then, of course, some 'technical levels' got triggered.”
 
Send in the clowns, with drones.





18 November 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Close But No Cigar


Gold took an early run at breaking out, but then was held at the overhead resistance and 'psychologically important' 1200 level.  We'll have to see if gold can rise above resistance and break fee, and change this downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.

Someone asked me to comment on the notion that price manipulation is not possible in large markets like the precious metals.  I cannot believe that this canard is being taken seriously again at this late date.
 
I hope you realize that when someone says that given supply and demand there can be no price manipulation in the metals markets they are citing the 'efficient market theory' as the basis for their disbelief.
 
That is not to say that this proves that there is manipulation. There are plenty of other indications of that. But it does not mean that there can not be market manipulation.  Prices are set at the margins, and given leverage and favorable regulatory climates prices and demand/supply can become seriously disconnected.

Markets can get out of sorts with value for a long time, and years in some cases of bubbles, if enough energy and effort is put into it.  And especially in times of lax regulation and lack of transparency, there can be widespread price manipulation for a number of reasons.
 
Do we really have memories that are this selective and short term? 
 
Have a pleasant evening.

 
 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


Janet and her Merry Pranksters are hitting some high notes.

The best explanation I have for this rally is the continuing weakness in the yen, strengthening the dollar, and therefore US dollar paper assets.

It was interesting today that the precious metals moved UP with stocks. This suggests the possibility that the stock market rally is in a late stage for this move right here and now.
 
Almost time for another wash and rinse.

Have a pleasant evening.