CrashTrak Update for June 10, 2022 - YTD Performance

 

"Life is a school of probabilities."

Walter Bagehot


I have updated the CrashTrak profile for the lows on June 10, 2022.

That '3rd Low' is obviously a work in progress.

We might even get a new 'failed rally' depending on where the stock indices go next.

Given the duration and the fluctuations I am more open now to the idea of a long, grinding bear market, rather than the quicker resolution of a proper crash.

FOMC and a stock index option expiration next week.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Bonfire of the Banalities - Cloudy With a Chance of Carnage

 

"There is not a more perilous or immoral habit of mind than the sanctifying of success.”

Lord Acton


"It is the belief of the elite that the power of their office is an achievement that rewards them with the right to lie, cheat and steal, both for themselves and their friends.

Although it is most important to understand that they would be shocked and insulted if one used those words, lie, cheat and steal, to describe what they are doing.  They view themselves as exceptionally hard working, and obligated by their natural gifts and superiority.

Through a long indoctrination that starts in their families, but is most often affirmed in their elite schools and among their circle of privileged friends, they learn to rationalize selective moral behaviour not as immoral but as 'the entitlement of our success.'  

And they are supported by a horde of morally ambivalent enablers who will tell them whatever they wish to hear.  There are one set of rules for themselves and their friends, and another set of rules for the rest.

Few who actually do evil consciously choose to be evil.  They rationalize what they do in any number of ways, but the deceit often hinges on their assumed natural superiority, and the objectification and denigration of the other.  We are makers, and they are takers.  Although many may work hard, they see their own work as having special value and merit, while the actions of the others are inconsequential and unworthy.

Given enough time, their rationalizations become an ideology, desensitized to the meaning and significance of others outside their own select group. This supremacy of ideology empties their souls, and opens the door to mass privation and even murder, although rarely done by their own hands.

Jesse, Goldman, Banking, Washington, and Business Ethics, 26 February 2013

To say that the equity market action today was not constructive would be an understatement.

At best we can say that the major indices are going back down to test the prior low, the second low in our CrashTrak model.

Worst case, they are teetering on the abyss.

What was stunning about today for me was the sharp upward movement in gold, silver and The Dollar, all in one of the first coordinated flights to safety we have seen among those three in a very long time.

Needless to say, I am on the highest ground I can find for the weekend.

More inflation and economic data next week.

Stock index option expiration on Friday.

Have a pleasant weekend. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Market Eyes CPI Number Tomorrow

 

"A new commandment I give you, that you love one another.  Just as I have loved you, so you must also love one another.  By this shall all know that you are My disciples, if you have love for one another.”

John 13:34-35

"Do not seek revenge for yourself, my friends, but make way for the wrath of God.  For it is written, 'Vengeance is mine,' say the Lord, 'and it is I who will bring justice.'”

Romans 12:19

"We live in a world where love itself is condemned. People call it weakness, something to grow out of. Some are saying: 'let each one become as strong as he can, and let the weak perish.'  The neo-paganism [of the Nazis] may well cast-off love but, in spite of everything, history teaches us that we shall be the victors over this.  We shall not forsake love.  But take the days as they come.

I see God in the work of His hands and the marks of His love in every visible thing.   Do not yield to hatred. We are here in a dark tunnel, but we have to go on. At the end, an eternal light is shining for us.  Not my will but yours be done."

Titus Brandsma, 26 July 1942

"Love does not make you weak, because it is the source of all strength. But it makes you see the nothingness of the illusory strength on which you depended before you knew it."

Léon Bloy

"We have come to know and to trust in the love that God has for us. For God is love, and he who abides in love abides in God, and God in them."

1 John 4:16

Stocks took the gas pipe today, out of concerns for a bad print on the CPI data tomorrow.

And even worse, they went out on the lows.

Gold and silver were hit hard early on, but managed to take back a chunk of their losses, especially in the case of gold in a flight to safety.

That flight to safety was more evident in the dollar, which soared into the 103 handle.

The VIX bounded higher, again showing the risk off bias.

So let's see how that CPI number prints tomorrow, and how the markets choose to interpret them.

Smells like teen spirit.

Despite the temptations to greed and fear, be mindful of your soul.

For that is what this is all about.

Have a pleasant evening.