13 June 2008

Foreclosure Nation

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." Thomas Jefferson

Foreclosures Rise 48% in May as U.S. Bank Repossessions Double
By Bob Ivry

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bank repossessions more than doubled in May and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent from a year earlier as previously foreclosed properties dragged down housing prices, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.

One in every 483 U.S. homeowners lost their houses to foreclosure or received either a default warning or notice that their home would go up for sale at auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Nevada, California and Arizona posted the highest rates in the U.S. and New Jersey entered the Top 10, according to RealtyTrac.

``It's definitely a different kind of market than what we got used to a couple years ago,'' said Devin Reiss, owner of Realty 500 Reiss Corp. in Las Vegas. ``We used to sell homes in a day. Now 50 percent of our sales are foreclosures.''

Foreclosures add to inventory and crowd out regular sales, Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris, economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, wrote in a report yesterday. Foreclosures will account for 30 percent of national home sales this year as 1.2 million foreclosed single-family homes will eventually enter the market, they said. They estimate that foreclosed properties, which typically sell for about 20 percent less than other homes, will depress home prices by 6 percent.

Feedback Loop

``The risk is that an adverse feedback loop will develop, in which problems in the housing market undercut the economy, causing even more stress in the housing and mortgage markets,'' Meyer and Harris wrote.

A homeowner usually receives a notice of default after falling more than 90 days behind on mortgage payments. If the borrower still doesn't pay what's owed, the property is sold to the highest bidder at an auction, typically held at a county courthouse. If bids don't reach a set amount, the lender takes ownership. Such houses are referred to as REO, or ``real estate- owned.''

Lenders took possession of 73,794 houses in May, more than doubling the 28,548 REOs in May 2007, RealtyTrac said. That pushed total REOs to more than 700,000, RealtyTrac said.

``Right now, lenders are afraid to lend and buyers are afraid they'll be under water in a year, so unless something dramatic happens we're going to continue to see the trend go in the wrong direction,'' said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing.

Federal Legislation

Legislation that would allow the federal government to guarantee up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages passed the House of Representatives and awaits debate in the Senate, which is scheduled to recess before the July 4 holiday.

Government help would make it easier for homebuyers to get loans and would ease the number of foreclosures, said John Gall, president of the Arizona Association of Realtors and owner of Arizona Land Quest LLC in Kingman, Arizona. (As we noted in an earlier blog, approximately 90% of new mortgages are being done by government sponsored agencies already - Jesse)

``Resolving credit issues is going to require cooperation between Wall Street and Washington to provide a secure platform for lenders to loosen up their criteria,'' Gall said. ``It would absolutely help here in Arizona.''

Arizona's foreclosure rate -- one in every 201 households received a filing in May -- was a 119 percent increase compared with May 2007 and ranked third in the U.S., RealtyTrac said.

Only Nevada, with one in every 118 households, and California, with one in every 183, had higher filing rates in May, the company said.

New Jersey

One in every 467 New Jersey households received a foreclosure filing in May, making it No. 10 on RealtyTrac's list of states. That represented an 89 percent increase from a year ago and a 44 percent increase from April, RealtyTrac said.

The number of national foreclosure filings grew 7 percent from April, according to RealtyTrac.

The nationwide rate of default warnings in May increased 1 percent from April and the number of auction notices fell 3 percent, the company said.

Metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounted for nine out of the top 10 metro foreclosure rates for the second month in a row, RealtyTrac said. Seven California metro areas were in the top 10: Stockton, Merced, Modesto, Riverside-San Bernardino, Vallejo-Fairfield, Bakersfield and Sacramento.

Stockton's rate, one in every 75 households, was more than six times the national average, the company said.

Deluged

``One of the big problems is the banks have been deluged and are way behind in actually doing the foreclosures,'' said Alan Nevin, chief economist with the California Building Industry Association in San Diego. Nevin said he's forecasting lower foreclosure rates in California starting in the last three months of the year.

The Cape Coral-Fort Myers area, on Florida's Gulf Coast, had the second-highest metro foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 79 households. The other Florida area in the top 10 was Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, on the Atlantic coast, at No. 10.

The only city outside Florida and California in the top 10 was Las Vegas.

RealtyTrac said it has a database of more than 1.5 million properties and monitors foreclosure filings, including default notices, auction sale notices and bank seizures.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.

12 June 2008

And the Holder of that New Mortgage Liability is.... You


A nice piece of deduction by Yves Smith over at Naked Capitalism.

If you are holding US dollars, you are exposed to this.


So Much For Free Markets: Federally Sponsored Mortgages at 90% Share

The US government has gone from being the biggest player in the mortgage market
to being just about the only player. Per recent reports sent by an alert reader, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae now finance 80% of all mortgages, and the FHA guarnatees another 10%, so these entities now come close to having mortgage finance all to themselves.


Having Fannie and Freddie, be this large, as we mentioned before, is disruptive to the credit markets. The GSE hedging of their derivatives book is pro-cyclical, increasing the amplitude of bond market price moves. Indeed, the Fed was worried that the scale of these operations in 2001, seeing possible systemic risk, but the
restrictions imposes as a result of accounting scandals took care of that problem for a while.

First, on Fannie and Freddie, from Associated Press:

Freddie Mac and its fellow GSE Fannie Mae are now financing more than 80 percent
of all mortgages in the U.S., up from 40 percent a year ago.

As lenders rely on Freddie Mac to buy their loans, the company is charging higher prices and increasing market share. Freddie Mac, which has a $738 billion portfolio of mortgage bonds and guarantees $1.78 trillion in home loans, is raising prices next month for the fourth time.

"We are nearly the only game in town, and we think we are going to be able to enjoy that position for a number of years," Piszel said....


Real Estate Values Never Really Decline


.....except in a post-bubble environment.

Lehman CFO and COO Resign


Two top operating officers of Lehman Brothers resigned this morning.

Erin Callan, the CFO, has resigned. She is reported to be returning to investment banking. She was noted on Wall Street for her frankness and credibility. She was involved in some controversy in her handling of David Einhorn and the Lehman short sellers.

Joseph Gregory, the President and COO, is also reported to have resigned and will be leaving the company to pursue other interests. He had been the president since 2004. He has been with Lehman for 34 years.

They will be replaced by Lowitt and McDade respectively. Details to follow.

The stock dropped sharply on the initial news reports trading down to $22, three days after a secondary offering at $28.



LEHMAN NAMES HERBERT H. MCDADE III PRESIDENT, COO
(The following is a reformatted version of a press release issued by Lehman Brothers and received via electronic mail. The release was confirmed by the sender.)

HERBERT (BART) H. MCDADE III NAMED PRESIDENT AND CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
IAN LOWITT NAMED CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

NEW YORK, June 12, 2008 -- Lehman Brothers, the global investment bank, today announced that Herbert (Bart) H. McDade III will succeed Joseph Gregory as president and chief operating officer of the Firm, and Ian Lowitt will succeed Erin Callan as the Firm's chief financial officer. Mr. Lowitt will join the Firm's Executive Committee. These management changes are effective immediately.

"Bart, who has been my partner for 25 years and has proven himself to be the Firm's best operator, is the right individual to take on this responsibility and lead the Firm to the next level. His experience in both Fixed Income and Equities Capital Markets will benefit the Firm, especially during these challenging times," said Richard S. Fuld, Jr., Lehman Brothers' chairman and chief executive officer.

"Joe has been my partner for over 30 years and has been a driving force behind who we are today and what we have achieved as a Firm. This has been one of the most difficult decisions either of us has ever had to make," Mr. Fuld continued.

Ms. Callan, who has served as the Firm's chief financial officer since December 2007, will be rejoining the Investment Banking Division in a senior capacity.