21 January 2009

The Geithner Nomination: The Wrong Man for the Job



"Summers was his mentor, but other sources call him a Rubin protégé."

The questions and testimony in the Tim Geithner nomination hearings this morning are interesting.

The topics discussed early on are billions more needed for the banks (or else), and reform is badly needed to control the deficit.

And of course the need to restore 'confidence.' Confidence is a touchstone word like 911. Fear and security. The carrot and the stick.

The reforms discussed were reducing Social Security and Medicaid, and lowering corporate income taxes.

It is the banks that have caused the current deficit problems, and banking reform was never even breached as a topic.

Now, having worked in the political circles, we know that there is little of substance to be discussed seriously at a nomination hearing such as this. Senators float out ideas important to their backers, and the nominee agrees that there is a problem, and that they will be open to those ideas.

But we thought it was interesting.

By the way, Geithner did avoid some substantial taxes, and in a most egregious way. Not only that, but once he found out that he had erred, he did not make good on prior errors, until he became the nominee.

This is not a 'reform' candidate. This is a Mr. Fixit, a son of TARP, a three page proposal presented under duress.

Tim Geithner is primarily a political operative with a grounding in international economics. He is not a banker, a financier. Yes, he held the important post of NY Fed Chief, and he made a botch of it. If anything he would be more of an asset at State, but not in the key role at Treasury. Is the Obama bench this weak that they had to resort to a tainted nominee as their first choice?

This is a vignette about what is wrong in this country: democracy is under continuing assault by corporatism.

It is also amusing to watch the Republican senators, still flush from a long orgy of deficit spending, favoritism, no-bid contracts, lies and corruption, to be newly born as the vestal virgins of thrift and public virtue.

Tim Geithner was widely traveled as a child, living overseas with his father who was an administrator fo the Ford Foundation. He attended Dartmouth College, graduating with a A.B. in government and Asian studies in 1983. He earned an M.A. in international economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in 1985. He has studied Chinese and Japanese.

After completing his studies, Geithner worked for Kissinger and Associates in Washington, D.C., for three years and then joined the International Affairs division of the U.S. Treasury Department in 1988. He went on to serve as an attache at the US Embassy in Tokyo. He was deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy (1995–1996), senior deputy assistant secretary for international affairs (1996-1997), assistant secretary for international affairs (1997–1998).He was Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (1998–2001) under Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Summers was his mentor, but other sources call him a Rubin protégé.


Tim Geithner: Too Close to Goldman Sachs to Be Treasury Secretary, Critic Says
by Aaron Task
Jan 21, 2009 12:22pm EST

Tim Geithner apologized for not paying his taxes and some Republicans criticized his involvement in the TARP program at today's hearing, but Barack Obama's nominee for Treasury Secretary appears on track for confirmation.

Congress is "all in a panic" and "really clueless" about this all-important member of Obama's cabinet, says Christopher Whalen, managing director and co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics. "I'm just not sure Tim Geithner is the guy we should have driving the bus."

Beyond his tax gaffe, which will mainly serve to politically weaken Obama's pick, Whalen says Geithner is the wrong many for the job because of his decision-making as President of the New York Fed.

"I believe Tim Geithner only represents part of Wall Street - Goldman Sachs," he says, suggesting Goldman was the "primary beneficiary of the AIG bailout" and notes Goldman alum Stephen Friedman serves on the board of the NY Fed. (Hank Paulson and Robert Rubin, with whom Geithner had frequent meetings in the past year, are also Goldman alum.)...

20 January 2009

How's Your Confidence In US Business?


Not very strong, apparently, if you are a CEO of a US business, as measured by the folks at the Conference Board.

Perhaps they should survey the Chief Market Strategists appearing on the extended infomercials that pass for financial news reporting in the States instead.


State Street Bank: Hammered


Today is an especially interesting day.

US equities, led by the financials, are getting absolutely hammered, the longer Treasury bonds are down, dollar and gold and oil are up. The dollar strength may be more of a sign of euro weakness.

Royal Bank of Scotland and State Street Bank seem to have shaken up the confidence of the Asian and Mideast investors, and pehaps the continental Europeans.

We'll know more as the week progresses.


Bloomberg
State Street Falls Most Since 1984 on Bond Losses
By Christopher Condon

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- State Street Corp., the world’s largest money manager for institutions, fell the most since 1984 in New York trading after unrealized bond losses almost doubled and analysts said the company may have to raise capital.

Unrealized losses on State Street’s fixed-income investments rose to $6.3 billion at Dec. 31 from $3.3 billion at Sept. 30, the result of falling values throughout the credit markets, the company said today in a statement. State Street also incurred $528 million in costs to prop up money funds and write down the value of investments on its portfolio...

Unrealized losses on assets held in conduits increased to $3.6 billion from $2.2 billion. The filing also revealed that the company had purchased $2.5 billion securities from the stable-asset funds...

State Street said that the net asset value of another group of unregistered funds had fallen as low as 91 cents a share on Dec. 31. These funds, which invest cash collateral that State Street customers receive in return for lending out their securities, also seek to maintain a net asset value of $1 a share, though they are not required to do so.

The average value of these funds at Dec. 31 was 95.5 cents a share, State Street said in the filing, with a substantial portion of the decline occurring during the fourth quarter. Total assets in the affected funds have fallen to $113 billion on Dec. 31, from $178 billion a year earlier.

State Street has continued to sell and redeem shares of these funds at $1 a share, it said in the filing. The funds can wait until the securities mature and they receive full face value from the borrower, rather than selling the holdings in the market at a loss.

The Jan. 16 filing said that continuing to sell and redeem shares at $1 may prevent State Street from passing on the losses later to shareholders if the value of the securities in the fund don’t recover.

The company also set aside $200 million to cover losses stemming from indemnification obligations on $1 billion in repurchase agreements that State Street clients purchased from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The investment bank filed for bankruptcy protection Sept. 15.

Strong Gold, Strong Dollar


"Because the Dollar Index (DX) is an outmoded and artificial measure of dollar strength, containing nothing to account for the Chinese renminbi for example, it may not be a true reflection of the progress of this inflation."
The Fed Is Monetizing Debt and Inflating the Money Supply

A number of people have remarked about the strong dollar and strong upmove in gold today. It does seem counterintuitive.

The euro is weak because of the solvency situtations in Ireland and Spain. This is taking the euro down and the dollar higher.

At the same time there is a flight to safety occurring into gold, but not into commodities in general.

It is not a flight from inflation, it is a flight from risk to relative safety. At least for today.

But by the way, keep an eye on the Treasuries, particularly the longer end of the curve, as we have previously advised.

There is 'the tell.'