June is now the front month.
Resistance to the countertrend rally is obvious and technically consistent with the major Fibonacci retracement levels.
This is a little too 'pat' for our taste but let's see what happens.
"To enter hell is to be banished from humanity. What is cast (or casts itself) into hell is not a man: it is 'remains.' To be a complete man means to have the passions obedient to the will and the will offered to God: to have been a man – to be an ex-man or 'damned ghost' – would presumably mean to consist of a will utterly centered in its self and passions utterly uncontrolled by the will." C. S. Lewis, The Problem of Pain, 1940
June is now the front month.
Resistance to the countertrend rally is obvious and technically consistent with the major Fibonacci retracement levels.
This is a little too 'pat' for our taste but let's see what happens.
There is a possibility that the counter trend rally may extend into something more significant. The short term indicators have moved to 'neutral.'
We have shifted our hedging bias from slightly short to neutral pending a strong close. But there will be no adding of shorts in size unless the market breaks significant downside support.
Be prepared for this market to turn on a dime. Risk remains high so this trader is hesitant to go long until we see more of this bounce, and potential inverse H&S bottom.
It has to bother one a bit that there are so many 'bottom' calls floating around.
This Cafe is playing a tri-partite hedge involving a mix of longs and shorts in commodities, stocks and government bonds.
Please note that the SP hourly chart has shifted to the June futures which are now the front month.
How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the deleveraging!
O Jeff, thou wast downgraded from thine high places. 2 Samuel 1:25
The SP futures front month switches from the March contract to June tomorrow.
This creates some short term noise in the futures as traders adjust their holdings.
So far the breakout attempt has not been confirmed as successful.
The odds of failure remain high and a sell off into the weekend would be in character for this market.
The action in the Treasuries and dollar today are worth noting. We like to follow TBT.