Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - US Government Preparing for Debt Downgrade

After the bell, a Reuters story quotes an ABC News report that the US is preparing for a downgrade of its sovereign debt, according to an unnamed government source.

(Reuters) - The U.S. government expects its debt to be downgraded by credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's from its current triple-A rating and is preparing for the event, ABC News said on Friday.

ABC cited an unnamed government official as its source and said it was uncertain whether the rating would drop from triple-A to AA+ or to AA.

The report said the main reasons likely to be cited for a U.S. downgrade by S&P included political confusion surrounding the process of hiking the debt limit and doubt that agreement would be reached on more deficit reductions..."

It should be noted that there is not a consensus on this. Forbes says that S&P will not downgrade the debt.

This contributed to the remarkable volatility in US markets today, despite a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls number.

The initial response was what one might have expected, but it was quickly met with selling that provoked more volatility and selling that reached a crescendo around mid-day at some key technical support areas in stocks.

This market is good for Wall Street and traders, and very bad for the real economy. It adds to the sense of uncertainty and riskiness in business and investment planning. It is a gambler's market, and not even a particularly honest gambling environment, with a noxious mix of asymmetrical information flows, front running, deception, ponzi schemes, and con men. 

I am now even more suspicious that there is a strong artificial element to thhe trading in these markets, and a 'setup' for either the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing,  and softer bailouts and subsidies for the corporate sector in the name of recovery and 'jobs,'  or a credit downgrade event in which the economic hitmen make the US an offer which they think that they cannot refuse.

I also wonder if the threats from S&P were a pre-emptive warning on QE3.  Make no mistake, there is a currency and class war underway, and things are not as they may seem to be on the surface.

The debt issues in Europe and the FOMC meeting on Tuesday will likely contribute to the market swings based on trading algorithms and the 'technicals.'

Gold showed remarkable resilience, and a safe haven aspect even with the obvious bear raids that hit the metals, especially silver.

Here is an interesting 2009 Bloomberg Radio interview with Jim Sinclair. It is well worth listening to with the benefit of hindsight.

European Credit Agency Downgrades US Credit Rating from AAA to AA

Here is my rough translation of the original Feri stuft die Bonität der USA herab.

"Man muss manchmal in den sauren Apfel beißen."

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery.

Feri Downgrades the Creditworthiness of the United States
By Harald Weygand
Wednesday, 06.08.2011, 08:56

Homburg, 8 June 2011 - The Bad Homburg €uro Feri Rating & Research AG downgraded the first credit rating agency's credit rating for the United States from AAA to AA. Feri analysts justify the downgrade by the continuing deterioration of the creditworthiness of the country due to high public debt, inadequate fiscal measures, and weaker growth prospects.

"The U.S. government has fought the effects of the financial market crisis primarily by an increase in government debt. We do not see thank that there is sufficient attention being paid to other measures, "said Dr. Tobias Schmidt, CEO of Feri Rating & Research AG €. "Our rating system shows a deterioration in economic health, so the downgrading of the credit ratings of U.S. is warranted."

For the third consecutive year the deficit of the United States is in double digit percentages relative to gross domestic product (GDP). "Deficits of such magnitude are not a sustainable fiscal policy.  We would reconsider the rating when the U.S. government creates a long-term sustainable budget," said Schmidt.

Feri Rating is listed on the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) as an EU credit rating agency approved and created with more than 20 years experience in sovereign ratings. Every month, the Feri analysts evaluate sovereign credit ratings from the perspective of a foreign investor based on the ability and willingness of countries to repay their debts. The credit ratings have eleven possible gradations between "AAA" (best credit) and "Default".

About Feri Rating & Research AG
Feri Rating & Research AG is a leading European rating agency for analysis and evaluation of investment markets and products and one of the largest economic forecasting and research institutes. Currently, the company with about 50 employees and has approximately 1,000 customers in addition to its headquarters in Bad Homburg with offices in London, Paris and New York.

Merkel to The Banks and Hedge Funds: Sprechen Sie Deutsche? Then Droppen Sie Dead

There is much surprise that the German government has declared a ban on naked short selling, including CDS, as of midnight tonight, with no prior notice and the courtly deference demanded by the Banks when government chooses to regulate them. This action seems to have perturbed some and confused many.

The reason for this may be quite simple.

After tonight, when hedge funds and The Banks call upon German financial firms and European governments to make payments on Credit Default Swaps or other financial instruments that are subject to the ban, the Germans will have a rather large hammer in hand to help them to negotiate the terms, and respond to any threats and coercion.

Since the CDS will be deemed to be no longer legal, at least in the quantity and leverage desired by those gaming the system, the opportunity to default on them with the backing of the government may be an option. This seems quite similar to the stance that the Chinese government took on behalf of some Chinese firms that were caught on the wrong side of energy derivatives.

I have heard from several sources that there was a general disappointment in Europe and in some parts of Asia at the lack of progress being made in the US Congress towards creating meaningful reforms in their financial system. In fact, there is a widespread belief that Washington is being dictated to by the Banks, and that their lobbyists are directing the conversation, and in many cases writing the actual legislation. The final straw was when the Obama Administration itself sought to water down and block key provisions of the legislation to limit the power and size of the Banks.

"To some degree this is a battle between the politicians and the markets," she said in a speech in Berlin. "But I am firmly resolved -- and I think all of my colleagues are too -- to win this battle....The fact that hedge funds are not regulated is a scandal," she said, adding that Britain had blocked previous efforts to do this. "However, this will certainly have taken place in Europe in three weeks," she said, without giving more details." Reuters 6 May 2010

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel accused the financial industry of playing dirty. 'First the banks failed, forcing states to carry out rescue operations. They plunged the global economy over the precipice and we had to launch recovery packages, which increased our debts, and now they are speculating against these debts. That is very treacherous,' she said. 'Governments must regain supremacy. It is a fight against the markets and I am determined to win this fight.'"UK Telegraph 6 May 2010

The financiers have been saying that 'Europe cannot print money faster than Goldman Sachs can create naked Credit Default Swaps.' Well, Goldman can still create those swaps, but they may have trouble finding counterparties for them in Europe. And those who buy them may do so at their peril, since Europe is obviously seeking to isolate itself from the consequences of speculative excess by an overleveraged financial system.

Merkel said she was going to reassert the primacy of government over the multinational speculators.

This is only the opening salvo. It will not be effective without further effort. And it is likely to draw the ire and criticism of the corporate media in NY and London, and the financiers' well-kept demimonde.

"Oh no, naked CDS are essential to price discovery. Naked shorting adds liquidity. The system will fall apart if you do not let the Banks have their way with the global economy. Oh my God, someone in government actually did something that was not vetted and pre-approved by the Wall Street Banks. They have actually outlawed naked shorting, which is tantamount to legalized counterfeiting. How dare that headstrong and impertinent frau Dr. Merkel attempt to protect her people from the gangs of New York!"

But one has to admit that the lady has style, and, unlike her American counterpart, is not afraid to occasionally take the wheel and drive, rather than sit in the back seat offering platitudes, and fine sounding words, and toothlessly petulant criticism.

Bloomberg
Germany to Ban Naked Short-Selling at Midnight
By Alan Crawford
May 18, 2010

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Germany will temporarily ban naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of euro-area government bonds at midnight after politicians blamed the practice for exacerbating the European debt crisis.

The ban will also apply to naked short selling in shares of 10 banks and insurers that will last until March 31, 2011, German financial regulator BaFin said today in an e-mailed statement. The step was needed because of “exceptional volatility” in euro-area bonds, the regulator said.

The move came as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition seeks to build momentum on
financial-market regulation with lower- house lawmakers due to begin debating a bill tomorrow authorizing Germany’s contribution to a $1 trillion bailout plan to backstop the euro. U.S. stocks fell and the euro dropped to $1.2231, the lowest level since April 18, 2006, after the announcement.

“You cannot imagine what broke lose here after BaFin’s announcement,” Johan Kindermann, a capital markets lawyer at Simmons & Simmons in Frankfurt, said in an interview. “This will lead to an uproar in the markets tomorrow. Short-sellers will now, even tonight, try to close their positions at markets where they can still do so -- if they find any possibilities left at all now.”

Merkel, Sarkozy

Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have called for curbs on speculating with sovereign credit-default swaps. European Union Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier this week called for stricter disclosure requirements on the transactions.

Allianz SE, Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Boerse AG, Deutsche Postbank AG, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs AG, Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG, Generali Deutschland Holding AG, MLP AG and Aareal Bank AG are covered by the short-selling ban.

“Massive” short-selling was leading to excessive price movements which “could endanger the stability of the entire financial system,” BaFin said in the statement.

The European Union last month proposed that the Financial Stability Board, the group set up by the Group of 20 nations to monitor global financial trends, should “closely examine the role” of CDS on sovereign bond spreads. Merkel said earlier today that she will press the Group of 20 to bring in a financial transactions tax.

Merkel’s ‘Battle’

“In some ways, it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets” and “I’m
determined to win,” Merkel said May 6. “The speculators are our adversaries.”

Germany, along with the U.S. and other EU nations, banned short selling of banks and insurance company shares at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008. The country still has rules requiring disclosure of net short positions of 0.2 percent or more of outstanding shares of 10 separate companies.

The disclosure of the rules drew criticism from lawyers who said that they should have been announced well ahead of time.

“The way it’s been announced is very irresponsible, and it’s sent many market participants into panic mode,” said Darren Fox, a regulator lawyer who advises hedge funds at Simmons & Simmons in London. “We thought regulators had learned their lessons from September 2008. Where is the market emergency that necessitates the introduction of an overnight ban?”

Short-selling is when hedge funds and other investors borrow shares they don’t own and sell them in the hope their price will go down. If it does, they buy back the shares at the lower price, return them to their owner and pocket the difference.

Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer face value if a borrower -- a country or a company -- defaults. In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy insurance on bonds they don’t own.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

Berkshire Downgraded from AAA by Moody's

And then there were four (US companies left with an AAA credit rating).

Moody's strips Berkshire Hathaway of top rating
by Karen Brettell
Wednesday April 8, 2009, 6:01 pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday cut its credit ratings on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. from the top Aaa, saying the recession and investment losses at its insurance operations has reduced their ability to support Berkshire's funding needs.

Moody's cut Berkshire to Aa2, the third highest investment grade, and cut its ratings on Berkshire's reinsurance subsidiary National Indemnity Co, and its bond insurance arm Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp, to Aa1, the second highest investment grade.

The outlook for all the ratings is stable, indicating an additional rating change is not anticipated over the next 12-to-18 months.

Falling stock prices have reduced the value of National Indemnity's investment portfolio, in turn weakening its capital cushion relative to its insurance and investment exposures, Moody's said in a statement.

Other, non-insurance businesses at the company have also seen "a meaningful drop in earnings and cash flows, particularly for businesses tied to the US housing market, construction, retailing or consumer finance," Moody's said...

The loss of Berkshire's top rating leaves only four U.S. companies rated the top investment grade by Moody's.

The company's bond insurance arm Berkshire Hathaway Assurance had been the only insurer of municipal bonds to have retained its top credit rating, although it has not been a major player in insuring primary deals.

The downgrade leaves Standard & Poor's as the only rating agency still ranking Berkshire AAA. S&P changed its outlook on the company to negative on March 25, indicating a cut from AAA is more likely.

Fitch ratings cut Berkshire to AA, the third highest investment grade, on March 12.

Berkshire Hathaway's Credit Rating Downgraded by Fitch

"Weep over Saul, Who clothed you luxuriously in scarlet, who put ornaments of gold on your apparel." 2 Samuel 1:24


Berkshire has sustained heavy losses in US equities as the value investing approach which Warren Buffett follows has fallen prey to this most vicious of bear markets.

The company still retains exposure to derivatives contracts that concerns Fitch.

Forbes
Buffett Loses Sterling Credit Rating
Peter C. Beller
03.12.09, 08:30 PM EDT

Fitch downgrades billionaire's Berkshire Hathaway to lowly AA because of possible stock and credit market losses.

For decades, one of the brightest banners to fly above Warren Buffett's castle was his company's AAA credit rating, one of a handful in the United States. In his annual letter to shareholders he bragged that Berkshire Hathaway's credit was "pristine." But the financial crisis is laying siege to even the mightiest balance sheets.

In the past year, shares of Berkshire Hathaway the insurance and electricity conglomerate that Buffett controls, have lost 35%. Buffett saw his personal wealth decline by $25 billion. Now Fitch Ratings has snatched away his top-notch rating, downgrading Berkshire to AA.

The full extent of the damage to Berkshire won't be clear until the other two ratings agencies--Standard and Poor's and Moody's (of which Berkshire owns more than 20%)--decide whether to follow with their own downgrades. But conservative lenders often consider the lower of a company's split ratings as the one that counts. A lower rating could hurt Berkshire's business if lenders demand higher interest rates from the company to compensate for increased risk.

Fitch said it downgraded Berkshire because of its large stakes in publicly traded companies, such as Coca-Cola and American Express, as well as huge derivatives contracts that expose it to possible losses in the credit and stock markets. Berkshire's bondholders are also behind insurance policyholders to get paid back if the company runs into trouble. Nothing about that is new; Berkshire has long had major insurance interests. But Fitch said that the financial crisis had led it to reassess the risks to financial firms across the board.

Buffett himself seems to have played a role. Fitch said that the company's success is so dependent on the Oracle of Omaha's ability to choose wise investments that it constitutes a credit risk not "consistent with an AAA rating." The agency also complained that Berkshire management has declined to meet regularly with Fitch analysts in contrast to General Reinsurance, a Berkshire subsidiary. Fitch threatened to drop the AA rating further if stock market declines and earnings shortfalls hurt the firm's capitalization.

Despite the crisis, Buffett has pursued a number of big deals designed to take advantage of lower stock prices and a lack of available capital for struggling firms. Berskhire has plowed billions into Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ), General Electric and Swiss Re and opened a municipal bond insurance company.

While Berkshire's net profit last year fell 62.1% to $5.0 billion, Buffett has said that Berkshire will make money in the long run. (See "Buffett Bloodied But Not Bowed") "Our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time" he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders. "It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead."

GE Loses Its 'AAA' Credit Rating as S&P Downgrades

How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the deleveraging!
O Jeff, thou wast downgraded from thine high places. 2 Samuel 1:25

GE, Finance Arm Lose Coveted AAA Long-Term Rating From SP

General Electric Co. (GE) and its finance arm have lost their coveted AAA long-term credit rating from Standard Poor's Ratings Service, which said its view of GE Capital on a stand-alone basis had fallen.

GE had been one of only six non-financial companies with the AAA rating from the agency. The long-term rating of GE and GE Capital was cut one notch each to AA+. Analysts and observers have wondered for months about the company's ability to keep the top rating amid woes at GE Capital, which have driven the company's stock tumbling in recent months.

The stock, down 75% the past year and 48% in 2009 alone, was down 3 cents at $8.46 in recent trading, after rising as much as 4% in the opening minutes of Thursday's session.