12 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3 PM


June is now the front month.

Resistance to the countertrend rally is obvious and technically consistent with the major Fibonacci retracement levels.

This is a little too 'pat' for our taste but let's see what happens.


Short Term Indicators Are "Neutral" But With Caution on a Bull Trap


There is a possibility that the counter trend rally may extend into something more significant. The short term indicators have moved to 'neutral.'

We have shifted our hedging bias from slightly short to neutral pending a strong close. But there will be no adding of shorts in size unless the market breaks significant downside support.

Be prepared for this market to turn on a dime. Risk remains high so this trader is hesitant to go long until we see more of this bounce, and potential inverse H&S bottom.

It has to bother one a bit that there are so many 'bottom' calls floating around.

This Cafe is playing a tri-partite hedge involving a mix of longs and shorts in commodities, stocks and government bonds.

Please note that the SP hourly chart has shifted to the June futures which are now the front month.






GE Loses Its 'AAA' Credit Rating as S&P Downgrades


How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the deleveraging!
O Jeff, thou wast downgraded from thine high places.
2 Samuel 1:25

GE, Finance Arm Lose Coveted AAA Long-Term Rating From SP

General Electric Co. (GE) and its finance arm have lost their coveted AAA long-term credit rating from Standard Poor's Ratings Service, which said its view of GE Capital on a stand-alone basis had fallen.

GE had been one of only six non-financial companies with the AAA rating from the agency. The long-term rating of GE and GE Capital was cut one notch each to AA+. Analysts and observers have wondered for months about the company's ability to keep the top rating amid woes at GE Capital, which have driven the company's stock tumbling in recent months.

The stock, down 75% the past year and 48% in 2009 alone, was down 3 cents at $8.46 in recent trading, after rising as much as 4% in the opening minutes of Thursday's session.


11 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart @ 3:45 PM


The SP futures front month switches from the March contract to June tomorrow.

This creates some short term noise in the futures as traders adjust their holdings.

So far the breakout attempt has not been confirmed as successful.

The odds of failure remain high and a sell off into the weekend would be in character for this market.

The action in the Treasuries and dollar today are worth noting. We like to follow TBT.

Let's see what happens.