The rally is looking a bit toppy but its not dead yet.
Watch the changing slopes of the support and resistance channels. If they keep rolling over and the SP breaks that key support at 740 it could be a real sleigh ride lower back down to 700.
The VIX was elevated all day, even at the high, so there is your 'tell' in addition to the shift in the trend channel to a softer slope.
Chances are they dump the market overnight if that is what is going to happen. But until there is a break through 740 this is just a pullback. We'll have to consult with other short term indicators to see if this is a top, or just a bear trap pullback.
16 March 2009
SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:45 PM
Overseas Private Investors Sell US Financial Assets
Non-US private investors fled dollar asset in January, while their central banks continued to buy.
"Monthly net TIC flows were negative $148.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $158.1 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.2 billion."Foreign central banks continued to purchase Treasuries while shedding agency debt. This is largely in support of currency pegs for industrial policy and homage from client states like Saudi Arabia.
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January
Washington —The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2009. The next release, which will report on data for February 2009, is scheduled for April 15, 2009.
Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were negative $43.0 billion.
Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were negative $18.8 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were negative $10.2 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $8.5 billion.
U.S. residents purchased a net $24.2 billion of long-term foreign securities.
Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $60.9 billion.
Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $30.9 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $15.4 billion.
Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased $118.9 billion.
Monthly net TIC flows were negative $148.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $158.1 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.2 billion.
Complete data is available on the Treasury website at www.treas.gov/tic.
AIG: A Scandal of Epic Proportion
"Goldman Sachs had said in the past that its exposure to A.I.G.’s financial trouble was 'immaterial'."
It appears that it was immaterial because Goldman Sachs, through their ex-CEO Hank Paulso, had set things up so they could not lose on their counterparty risk.
This story from last September documents Goldman Sachs involvement, at the highest levels, in the AIG bailout with then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.
AIG: A Blind Eye to Risk - NYT Sept 28, 2008
It seems fairly obviously that a relatively small department within AIG, the Financial Products division, was operating under the regulatory radar and was used as a patsy by a number of the Wall Street banks, who had no worries about losses because of their power to obtain the US government as a backstop to losses.
This is a scandal of epic proportion. 'Outrage' barely manages to express the appropriate reaction.
Obama is an educated, intelligent President, and can hardly retreat behind the clueless buffoon defense in vogue with so many CEO's and public officials. He has a directly responsible for this outcome now along with the Bush Administration and the Republicans.
Geithner and Summers should resign over their handling of AIG.
The Fed has no business regulating anything more complex than a checking account.
The difficulty with which we are faced is that despite their mugging for the camera and emotional words the Democrats and Republicans are owned by Wall Street and Big Business because of the existing system of lobbying and campaign funding.
Getting behind a third party for president is symbolic but ineffective. Giving a significant number of congressional seats to a third party will send a chilling and practical message to both the President and the Congress that enough is enough.
And in the meantime--
Contact Your Elected Officials
NY Times
A.I.G. Lists the Banks to Which It Paid Rescue Funds
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
March 16, 2009
Amid rising pressure from Congress and taxpayers, the American International Group on Sunday released the names of dozens of financial institutions that benefited from the Federal Reserve’s decision last fall to save the giant insurer from collapse with a huge rescue loan.
Financial companies that received multibillion-dollar payments owed by A.I.G. include
Goldman Sachs ($12.9 billion),
Merrill Lynch ($6.8 billion),
Bank of America ($5.2 billion),
Citigroup ($2.3 billion) and
Wachovia ($1.5 billion).
Big foreign banks also received large sums from the rescue, including
Société Générale of France and
Deutsche Bank of Germany, which each received nearly $12 billion;
Barclays of Britain ($8.5 billion); and
UBS of Switzerland ($5 billion).
A.I.G. also named the 20 largest states, starting with California, that stood to lose billions last fall because A.I.G. was holding money they had raised with bond sales.
In total, A.I.G. named nearly 80 companies and municipalities that benefited most from the Fed rescue, though many more that received smaller payments were left out.
The list, long sought by lawmakers, was released a day after the disclosure that A.I.G. was paying out hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to executives at the A.I.G. division where the company’s crisis originated. That drew anger from Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike on Sunday and left the Obama administration scrambling to distance itself from A.I.G.
“There are a lot of terrible things that have happened in the last 18 months, but what’s happened at A.I.G. is the most outrageous,” Lawrence H. Summers, an economic adviser to President Obama who was Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said Sunday on “This Week” on ABC. He said the administration had determined that it could not stop the bonuses.
(Among the outrages was the appointment of that sly old fox Larry Summers and his sidekick Tim Geithner by President Obama, and their continued tenure in any so-called reform government. - Jesse)
But some members of Congress expressed outrage over the bonuses. Representative Elijah E. Cummings, a Democrat of Maryland who had demanded more information about the bonuses last December, accused the company’s chief executive, Edward M. Liddy, of rewarding reckless business practices. (Well duh, that was and is the modus operandi of Wall Street Congressman - Jesse)
“A.I.G. has been trying to play the American people for fools by giving nearly $1 billion in bonuses by the name of retention payments,” Mr. Cummings said on Sunday. “These payments are nothing but a reward for obvious failure, and it is an egregious offense to have the American taxpayers foot the bill.” (Hey I have a good idea, lets elect some officials to make the laws and prevent these outrages through regulation. Oh yeah we did. Its you Congress! Its you Obama - Jesse)
An A.I.G. spokeswoman said Sunday that the company would not identify the recipients of these bonuses, citing privacy obligations.
Ever since the insurer’s rescue began, with the Fed’s $85 billion emergency loan last fall, there have been demands for a full public accounting of how the money was used. The taxpayer assistance has now grown to $170 billion, and the government owns nearly 80 percent of the company.
But the insurance giant has refused until now to disclose the names of its trading partners, or the amounts they received, citing business confidentiality.
A.I.G. finally relented after consulting with the companies that received the government support. The company’s chief executive, Edward M. Liddy, said in a statement on Sunday: “Our decision to disclose these transactions was made following conversations with the counterparties and the recognition of the extraordinary nature of these transactions.” (How about the threat of subpoena from the Attorney General? - Jesse)
Still, the disclosure is not likely to calm the ire aimed at the company and its trading partners.
The Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, appearing on “60 Minutes” on CBS on Sunday night, said: “Of all the events and all of the things we’ve done in the last 18 months, the single one that makes me the angriest, that gives me the most angst, is the intervention with A.I.G.” (Considering you are presiding over the looting of the middle class, Ben my man, that speaks volumes - Jesse)
He went on: “Here was a company that made all kinds of unconscionable bets. Then, when those bets went wrong, they had a — we had a situation where the failure of that company would have brought down the financial system.” (AIG was a setup with the very banks, Goldman Sachs and crew, that you are bending our economy over backwards to save, Ben - Jesse)
In deciding to rescue A.I.G., the government worried that if it did not bail out the company, its collapse could lead to a cascading chain reaction of losses, jeopardizing the stability of the worldwide financial system.
The list released by A.I.G. on Sunday, detailing payments made between September and December of last year, could bolster that justification by illustrating the breadth of losses that might have occurred had A.I.G. been allowed to fail.
Some of the companies, like Goldman Sachs and Société Générale, had exposure mainly through A.I.G.’s derivatives program. Others, though, like Barclays and Citigroup, stood to lose mainly because they were customers of A.I.G.’s securities-lending program, which does not involve derivatives. (There ought to have been the managed unwinding and default on those derivatives - Jesse)
But taxpayers may have a hard time accepting that so many marquee financial companies — including some American banks that received separate government help and others based overseas — benefiting from government money.
The outrage that has been aimed at A.I.G. could complicate the Obama administration’s ability to persuade Congress to authorize future bailouts. (I would hope so. Obama has lost all credibility compliments of Geithner, Summers and Bernanke - Jesse)
Patience with the company’s silence began to run out this month after it disclosed the largest loss in United States history and had to get a new round of government support. Members of Congress demanded in two hearings to know who was benefiting from the bailout and threatened to vote against future bailouts for anybody if they did not get the information.
“A.I.G.’s trading partners were not innocent victims here,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who presided over one recent hearing. “They were sophisticated investors who took enormous, irresponsible risks.” (Do something about it then you windbag - Jesse)
The anger peaked over the weekend when correspondence surfaced showing that A.I.G. was on the brink of paying rich bonuses to executives who had dealt in the derivative contracts at the center of A.I.G.’s troubles.
Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, implicitly questioned the Treasury Department’s judgment about the whether the bonuses were binding. (I would question if Barney Frank is competent to hold office since he has also been a key player - Jesse)
“We need to find out whether these bonuses are legally recoverable,” Mr. Frank said in an interview Sunday on Fox News.
Many of the institutions that received the Fed payments were owed money by A.I.G. because they had bought its credit derivatives — in essence, a type of insurance intended to protect buyers should their investments turn sour.
As it turned out, many of their investments did sour, because they were linked to subprime mortgages and other shaky loans. But A.I.G. was suddenly unable to honor its promises last fall, leaving its trading partners exposed to potentially big losses.
When A.I.G. received its first rescue loan of $85 billion from the Fed, in September, it forwarded about $22 billion to the companies holding its shakiest derivatives contracts. Those contracts required large collateral payments if A.I.G.’s credit was downgraded, as it was that month.
Among the beneficiaries of the government rescue were Wall Street firms, like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch that had argued in the past that derivatives were valuable risk-management tools that skilled investors could use wisely without any intervention from federal regulators. Initiatives to regulate financial derivatives were beaten back during the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
Goldman Sachs had said in the past that its exposure to A.I.G.’s financial trouble was “immaterial.” A Goldman Sachs representative was not reachable on Sunday to address whether that characterization still held. When asked about its exposure to A.I.G. in the past, Goldman Sachs has said that it used hedging strategies with other investments to reduce its exposure.
Until last fall’s liquidity squeeze, A.I.G. officials also dismissed those who questioned its derivatives operation, saying losses were out of the question.
Edmund L. Andrews and Jackie Calmes contributed reporting.
13 March 2009
World Buying In Gold Coins Soars
"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."
Bernard M. Baruch
World mints report soaring demand for gold coins
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:36am EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - Mints around the world say demand for gold coins has risen sharply as interest in the precious metal soars on the back of financial instability and concerns over the inflation outlook.
The Royal Canadian Mint, which produces Maple Leaf bullion coins, said it quadrupled its production capacity late last year as demand for gold and silver bullion products leapt.
Gold was one of the few commodities to rise last year as turmoil in the financial sector sharpened investors' appetite for assets seen as a safe store of value, such as bullion.
Spot gold rallied to an 11-month high of $1,005.40 on February 20 as a slide in equity markets increased interest in the precious metal. Demand for physical gold products such as coins and bars has been particularly strong, traders say.
The United States Mint said sales of its one-ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins rocketed to 710,000 ounces in 2008, from 140,000 ounces a year before.
"The demand for gold and silver has been unprecedented," a spokesman for the Mint told Reuters.
The chairman of the French Mint, Christophe Beaux, said sales roughly doubled last year in value terms and are expected to rise by another 50 percent this year.
The 2009 catalog the mint had produced was almost entirely pre-sold, he said. The French Mint produces 100 euro gold coins, and plans to mint 10-ounce and 1-kilo coins this year.
In South Africa -- the world's second-largest gold producer -- Natanya van Niekerk, deputy general manager for numismatics at the South African Mint Company, said she had seen a big increase in demand for gold.
"I think we will see this same trend in this and the next quarter," she said. "Gold surely has been resilient in these times."
Michael O'Kane, head bullion trader at the New Zealand Mint, said many overseas buyers had come into the New Zealand market. "We're seen as a safe-haven market," he said.
He said buying had been strong since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in September, as investors moved money from banks into hard assets like gold.
The mint was averaging "a month's transactions in a day," he said, adding he saw demand continuing to rise.