More Big Banks On the Verge of Failure

The next wave of the financial crisis is fast approaching.

Fortune
Big Texas bank on verge of failure
By Colin Barr, senior writer
Last Updated: July 31, 2009: 1:53 PM ET

Guaranty Bank, which counts Carl Icahn as one if its backers, is teetering on the edge of insolvency. But it may not be easy for regulators to find a buyer.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Guaranty Bank is hardly a household name. But the Austin, Texas-based thrift's looming failure is shaping up as a big headache for bank supervisors -- not to mention a black eye for Carl Icahn and others in the smart money set.

Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed.

Guaranty has $13.4 billion in assets and operates 160 branches in Texas and California -- two of the three best banking markets in the nation, thanks to their size and population growth.

But the bank's capital problems and its smallish, scattered network of branches could detract from Guaranty's appeal, making it tough for regulators to find a buyer quickly -- or without substantial federal subsidies.

"This may not be closed as quickly as you think, since it will require bids and rebids," said Miami banking consultant Ken Thomas.

That means resolving Guaranty's failure is likely to be costly to the FDIC's deposit insurance fund, whose balance is at its lowest point in almost two decades.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. isn't the only one taking its lumps. So have some big investors.

Shares of the bank's parent, Guaranty Financial, have dropped 97% since a group led by billionaire Texas hotel mogul Robert Rowling and Icahn, the renowned New York corporate raider, poured $600 million into the company in June 2008.

Other big Guaranty holders whose stakes stand to be wiped out include hedge fund managers David Einhorn, who was among the most persistent skeptics of Lehman Brothers before its collapse, and Dan Loeb.

"Relatively low franchise value and the fact that two big money investors already got burned on this bank may suggest less interest than with BankUnited," said Thomas, referring to the Florida thrift that failed in May and was bought by a group of private equity investors.

BankUnited had half as many branches and operated in only one state, but had a strong competitive position in the most lucrative counties -- something Guaranty lacks.

Despite BankUnited's relative attractiveness, its sale to investors led by vulture investor Wilbur Ross was hardly a walkover for the FDIC. The deal cost the FDIC insurance fund $4.9 billion.

A big tab on Guaranty would be costly to the deposit fund, whose balance was $13 billion at the end of the first quarter. The FDIC has estimated failure costs on cases since then at $11.2 billion.

A spokesman for the FDIC stresses that it has already set aside an additional $22 billion for failure-related costs in 2009, and adds that congressional action this spring gave the agency access to $500 billion in Treasury credit.

Though Guaranty has been around since 1988, it came public less than two years ago. Guaranty was part of the Temple-Inland (TIN) cardboard-box conglomerate until Icahn pressured the company to split up at the end of 2007. Guaranty shares were then distributed to Temple-Inland holders.

Guaranty's chief executive at the time, Ken Dubuque, assured investors that despite the gale force winds sweeping the financial world, the bank would be safe.

"We're keenly aware of the importance of good credit, disciplines and effective risk management, in good times and in difficult times," he said on the bank's first earnings conference call in February 2008.

But Guaranty's risk management soon was found wanting. The bank aimed to expand beyond lending to the builders of office buildings, shopping centers and houses to new areas such as small business and corporate energy lending.

Because its thrift charter obliges Guaranty to keep 70% of its assets in housing-related investments, the bank matched growth in other areas with expanded investments in housing. That, Dubuque said, is how the bank ended up taking on a giant portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, backed largely by option adjustable-rate mortgages in California and Texas.

"We needed to increase the size of the balance sheet, so that was a relatively risk-free way of doing it," Dubuque told investors in 2008. "We also have liked the returns in that business as well."

But securities backed by option ARMs are anything but risk-free, as investors have learned. Among institutions that dealt most heavily in those were Washington Mutual, the Seattle thrift that collapsed in September with $307 billion in assets, and Wachovia, which was sold to Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) later in 2008. Other big option ARM users included failed California savings banks Downey Financial and PFF.

Losses built at Guaranty over the past year, and Dubuque quit without explanation in November. In April regulators told Guaranty to raise more capital. When that effort failed, they told Guaranty to write down the value of the mortgage-backed securities by more than $1 billion. That move, announced this month, left the bank with negative capital of $748 million, according to filings....

Job Prospects: Wall Street and the Government

Who says there are no new job opportunities in the financial bubble economy?

Wall Street is hiring, and there are entry level positions for internment/resettlement specialists with the government.

Progress! But towards what? That is the question for America.

The queue for your swine flu shots is on the left. Oink.

TheDeal.com
Hiring: Goldman Sachs, Fifth Third, Wells Fargo
July 31, 2009

It looks like the tide may be turning slightly. If you are looking for a job, there are some more opportunities at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC), Barclays plc and more banks around the world.

Here are more details.

•Fifth Third Bancorp plans to hire 50 employees for its sales force and small business teams. The bank is also looking for branch managers, according to The Charlotte Observer.

•Goldman Sachs is adding staff to its equity research team in Japan, according to Bloomberg.

•Bank of America is expanding its equity businesses in Japan and is hiring bankers in Canada, according to Bloomberg and Dealbook.

•Barclays is looking for 10 equity sales and trading staff in Tokyo, London and New York by Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg.

•Standard Chartered plc and Merrill Lynch & Co. are hiring business school graduates, especially those in accounting, according to AsiaOne.

•Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) will be hiring branch support as it integrates Wachovia Bank, according to The Philadelphia Business Journal....


iHispano.com
Corrections Officer: Internment/Resettlement Specialist

Company Name: Army National Guard
Job Category: Legal/Law Enforcement/Security
City: Pensacola/Panama City
State: Florida
Country: USA

As an Internment/Resettlement Specialist for the Army National Guard, you will ensure the smooth running of military confinement/correctional facility or detention/internment facility, similar to those duties conducted by civilian Corrections Officers.

This will require you to know proper procedures and military law; and have the ability to think quickly in high-stress situations.

Specific duties may include assisting with supervision and management operations; providing facility security; providing custody, control, supervision, and escort; and counseling individual prisoners in rehabilitative programs.

By joining this specialty, you will develop the skills that will prepare you for a rewarding career with law enforcement agencies or in the private security field...

Looming Financial Crisis Dampens German Banker's Earnings

We would have to agree that there is another significant wave incoming a from different set of bad loans in this financial crisis.

Contrast Deutsche Bank's actions with those of its Wall Street counterparts and remember this in the fourth quarter when they start queuing up at the trough for bailouts, warning of martial law, food shortages, and a breakdown of the financial system.

The Obama economic team's handling of the banks is disgraceful, serving a few politically connected Wall Street firms at the expense of the nation's interests.

The banks must be restrained, and the system brought back into balance, before there can be a sustained economic recovery.

Bloomberg
Ackermann Says Bad Loans Are ‘Next Wave’ of Crisis
By Elena Logutenkova

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Rising delinquencies among consumer and corporate borrowers are the “next wave” of the financial crisis and may affect banks that have avoided losses so far, said Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann.

“This crisis has consisted of a series of earthquakes, with changing epicenters,” Ackermann said late yesterday at an event in Zurich. “Bad loans are the next wave. Banks that have fared relatively well so far will also be affected by this.”

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest lender, said this week it set aside 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) for risky loans in the second quarter. The seven-fold increase in provisions and below- forecast revenue from trading sent the Frankfurt-based bank’s shares to the biggest decline in four months on July 28. (Why don't they just ignore such risks like the American banking system and keep the bonus machine rolling? - Jesse)

“We were struck by the 44 percent increase in problem loans in the quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts Huw van Steenis and Hubert Lam said in a note today, cutting their rating on Deutsche Bank shares to “equal-weight” from “overweight.”

Deutsche Bank fell 1.30 euros, or 2.8 percent, to 45.39 euros in Frankfurt trading, making it the worst performer on the 63-company Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index over the past five days with an 11 percent drop.

‘Crisis Not Over’

“The crisis is not over,” Ackermann said. “When one looks at the developments of global economic growth, then it can be expected that starting in the second half of this year we slowly move into the positive territory. But we’re still moving on a low level.”

Banks that were forced to take government aid and are now encouraged to increase domestic lending may be more in danger from rising loan defaults than companies that can expand internationally and diversify risks, Ackermann said.

Deutsche Bank “intentionally” reduced its balance sheet and risk-taking this year, he said. (No soup for you, Deutsche Bank employees. - Jesse)

“We were disciplined in our considerations about what risks which should take,” Ackermann said. “If we had played it out to the full extent, we could have earned significantly more.” (And if you were front running the DAX with high frequency trades using government funds you would be rolling in profits - Jesse)

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