10 September 2009

Japan: The Triumph of Crony Corporatism Over the Individual


Japanese officials sometimes have the endearing quality of coming out and openly saying what they are doing, or intend to do, in support of dodgy political and financial arrangements that would make a Wall Street banker blush, if they are still capable of such an act of modesty.

The former Japanese Central Banker Toshiro Muto said in March that '"in principle equity values should be set by the market and authorities should avoid manipulating prices because doing so would hurt the stock market’s reputation."

Apparently in this case 'in principle' means 'theoretically, as is convenient," because Mr. Muto goes on to recommend that the Japanese Central Bank and government throw principles aside and buy stocks to support the Japanese banking cartel, which has crippled that country for the past fifteen to twenty years.

Notice how in his talk, Muto says that this arrangement will be temporary, until Japan can export its way out of its financial difficulties.

The challenge might be that most of the countries intend to 'export' their way out of their central bank created economic difficulties. China and India have already passed on the notion of becoming mass importers in the foreseeable future.

Perhaps the fate of the world rests on the ability of the nations of Africa and Polynesia to obtain the suitable credit ratings and FICO scores to become mass consumers with debts that can not possibly ever be repaid, à la mode Amerique? Is South America willing to once again mortgage its future for the sake of the financiers? I am sure that any appropriate arrangements can be made by the Central Banks with the target nations' ruling elites.

Japan is one of the worst examples of crony capitalism in the world. Its ruling LDP party has been a disgraceful example of serving private corporate interests, and acting without honor, honesty, and integrity.

Why doesn't the Bank of Japan just give the money to the banks, and let them buy stocks higher using leverage in the futures index markets like the Anglo-American crony capitalists? This is considered much more respectful of the market driven economy in the West.

"As the boom developed, the big men became more and more omnipotent in the popular or at least the speculative view... the big men decided to put the market up, and even some serious scholars have been inclined to think that a concerted move catalyzed this upsurge." J. K. Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

After all, as the industrialist, financier, and Democratic National Chairman John Jacob Raskob observed in August 1929, "Everybody ought to be rich." And so for a time they were, seemingly all powerful, invincible, as gods.

And the abyss swallowed them all. And then the descent into madness in Asia, Africa, the Mideast, and in Europe: and finally a world in flames. Monstrous actions done in the name of economic necessity, room for growth, fuel for industry, a new order for the ages, and at all times the will to power of the few. All the gods of greed.

And at last, the twilight of the gods. Götterdämmerung. Until the old gods rise again.

And so here we are, trembling at the veil.

(Note: this news piece below is not current. It is from earlier this year. It demonstrates the 'roots' of the rallies which we are seeing today in the world bourses. They are an illusion.)


Bloomberg
Japan May Need to Buy Stocks, Ex-BOJ Deputy Muto Says

By Mayumi Otsuma

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said the government and the central bank may need to buy shares temporarily to support the country’s ailing stock market.

When global equities plunge, “it’s very meaningful for the government’s share-buying institution and the Bank of Japan to buy stocks to support the market,” Muto said at a forum co- hosted by Bloomberg News in Tokyo today. “However, such purchases cannot last forever and should be justified only as a tool to avert a crisis.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is at a 26-year low, eroding banks’ capital and making them reluctant to lend. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said today that the government has a “strong will” to combat the credit squeeze resulting from the stock-market slump.

Muto, currently head of the Daiwa Institute of Research, added that "in principle" equity values should be set by the market and authorities should avoid manipulating prices because doing so would hurt the stock market’s reputation.

The government has already allocated 20 trillion yen ($203 billion) and the Bank of Japan has set aside 1 trillion yen to buy shares owned by banks. Yosano last month ordered lawmakers within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to study ways to bolster stocks, including the feasibility of the government directly purchasing equities in the market.

Keidanren’s Plea

Keidanren, Japan’s largest business lobby, yesterday called on the government to allow a public entity to sell state-backed bonds and funnel the proceeds into the flagging stock market.

The Nikkei slid 0.4 percent today to 7,054.98, the lowest since October 1982, on concern shrinking global demand and rising fuel prices will weigh on company earnings.

An unprecedented drop in exports since last quarter has forced Japanese manufacturers to cut production at a record pace and fire thousands of workers. The central bank forecasts the economy will shrink 2 percent in the year starting April 1, the worst in 60 years.

Muto said exports will drive Japan’s eventual recovery. Deflationary risks outweigh concerns about inflation in the world’s second-largest economy, he added.

Muto served as the central bank’s deputy chief for five years following a 37-year career at Finance Ministry. He was the government’s first choice to succeed Toshihiko Fukui as governor last year, only to be rejected by the opposition- controlled upper house, which said his stint at the ministry may hamper the bank’s independence.


08 September 2009

Barrick Capitulates


Barrick Gold and their bullion bank partner J.P. Morgan were the target of lawsuits by the gold bulls, most recently Blanchard and Company, for price manipulation through the use of forward sales in their hedge book. The contention was that the selling was being used to manipulate the price of gold.

Barrick's initial defense was that if they were acting in conjunction with the central banks, they were therefore immune from prosecution since the central banks are immune from prosecution. Details of that story are here. The public document that Blanchard had put forward was shocking in its implications indeed, and can be seen here.

Almost as shocking as the complete lack of interest and follow up in such a potential scandal by the financial community, market regulators, and the media.

One has to wonder what Barrick's management now sees in the precious metal markets, in order to accept this significant shareholder dilution to take down those fixed price contracts now.

On a related note, one of the current largest holders of the gold ETF (GLD) is now reported to be J.P Morgan, which is also a holder of one of the largest short gold positions on the COMEX. There was a bit of a row last year when it was revealed that the rules of the exchange would allow holders of short gold positions to make delivery good in, wait for it, the GLD ETF rather than in physical bullion.

In an ideal, efficient market there would have been transparency and symmetric disclosure of information under the auspices of the CFTC and the SEC, rather than cross accusations and lawsuits. The exact details of what had transpired are not known as the Blanchard lawsuit was settled.

The CFTC seems to be finally willing to act to place position limits on some of the commodity markets, such as oil, that have been the subject of speculative manipulation in recent years. Perhaps some day this will also include other reforms, and will include all the commodity markets.

How sweet it must be for the 'gold bugs' who had repeatedly cautioned Barrick's management on their use of hedges and fixed priced arrangement with the bullion banks.

Although for a large shareholder or group of shareholders in Barrick, one would think that a much more complete disclosure of the nature of this loss and the counter parties would be expected. How involved was J. P. Morgan? Was the Federal Reserve or any other central bank an actual counterparty or collaborator as Barrick apparently claimed in court in 2003? Does this have anything to do with China's recent position on derivatives obligations held by its State Owned Enterprises?

It does sound like there is now a Barrick put under the price of gold, in addition to the China put, that is, a floor under the price of the metal in the front month or spot markets.

In these opaque markets one can still only wonder what is really going on behind the scenes, in a number of financial arrangements. Yes we can.


Reuters
Barrick to Sell $3 Billion in Stock to Buy Back Hedges
By Cameron French
Tuesday, September 8, 2009

TORONTO -- Barrick Gold, the world's biggest gold producer, said on Tuesday it will issue $3 billion in stock and use the proceeds to buy back all of its fixed-price gold hedges and a portion of its floating hedges.

Barrick will take a $5.6 billion charge on its third-quarter earnings as a result of the move.

During times of weak prices, gold miners often sell a portion of their future production to protect, or hedge, against the possibility that prices will fall.

When prices rise, as they have done since 2001, the company suffers because value of the future production they've sold does not increase with the gold price. (The central banks of the world have turned from net sellers to buyers of gold this year, led by the BRIC countries who wish to hedge their reserves against a declining dollar - Jesse)

"The gold hedge book has been a particular concern among our shareholders and the broader market, which we believe has obscured the many positive developments within the company," Barrick Chief Executive Aaron Regent said in a statement.

Barrick stopped hedging, or forward-selling, its gold in 2003.

It exited its production hedge book two years ago, and the company has faced repeated questions from analysts and shareholders since then about its plans for the remaining 9.5 million ounces it had hedged to finance projects.

The equity deal comes as a resurgent gold price and healing credit markets have prompted investors to snap up gold stocks, bullion and equity.

The metal's price hovered just below $1,000 an ounce on Tuesday.

Barrick will issue 81.2 million shares at $36.95 a share, a 6 percent discount to the stock's New York closing price of $39.30 on Tuesday.

The company will use $1.9 billion of the proceeds to eliminate all of its fixed-price gold contracts -- on which the company effectively lost money every time the gold price rose -- by purchasing gold on the open market and delivering it into the contracts.

It will use about $1 billion to eliminate some of its floating spot price contracts. (Are they buying them out from the counterparties? Is J. P. Morgan one of them? - Jesse)

After the deal, Barrick will still hold floating hedges with a negative mark-to-market value of $2.7 billion, but the $5.6 billion charge will remove it from the balance sheet. (It sound as if they are writing them off as a loss - Jesse)

Bill O'Neill, a partner at LOGIC Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, said the deal would not likely have a material impact on the gold market. (Off the cuff, the Barrick statement implies that they will be purchasing 4% of total world production in the open market for bullion which is already tight at these prices in addition to taking an enormous amount of forward selling off the market. Unless, of course, they can take delivery directly from existing reserves, such as from the Fed via the IMF. - Jesse)


US Dollar Seasonality


Rough seas ahead for Uncle Buck.



Chart Courtesy of ContraryInvestor.com

Fed: Consumer Credit Contracted at an annual rate of 10 1/2 Percent


Federal Reserve G.19 Report

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 10-1/2 percent in July 2009.

Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 8 percent, and
nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 11-3/4 percent.