Gold Chart: A Time and Price Projection

It is important to keep in mind that this is a trend projection.

An exogenous event or a change in environment such as a liquidity crisis and equity market crash will test and can certainly alter this trend. As traders we must be mindful of what the market tells us.

As you may recall, I like to use these kind of charts as indications of the progress of a market, rather than hard and fast rules.

For example, the correction we see today in gold is to be expected as we ran well above trend over the past few days. Is this the consolidation we have been expecting around 1375? Very possibly.  That objective was set months ago and is more an indicative target than a hard buy or sell stop.   After a breakout from a cup and handle, price almost always gets ahead of itself and undergoes a consolidative correction.  So, there we may now be.

The equity market SP 500 December futures appear to be hesitating ahead of tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls report.  It was at the top of a short term trend channel at 1163 with its lower bound at 1136.  The breakdown of the NDX yesterday was indicative.  That range in the futures is 2025 to 1965.   A break of trend in the SP futures will set up a test of big support at 1120.  The Feds seem to be all over these markets, so I prefer to play it tight, light, and short term until we see a confirmed change in trend.

It is the relationship of the current price to the chart that is most important, with time as a factor.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold and Silver Daily Charts

Gold broke out of its trend channel today on the same monetary euphoria that seemed to drive US equities.

Prior resistance is now support, so we would look for the top of the trend channel to provide some level of potential lift in the case of a consolidation or pullback around the 1325-1330 level. Breakouts from cup and handle formations can be violent, and it would not surprise this chartist to see that run to the first target of 1375 before gold consolidates properly. I would hope gold would take a more leisurely route higher to that second target of 1455 and beyond, our long term minimum objective for the cup and handle, since the big parabolic peaks are almost always followed by deep corrections.

This gold chart gave us a 'buy or die' signal at 1,156 which was an almost perfect 50% retracement of the big rally off the bottom. That buy signal now shifts to 'neutral' as we approach the intermediate objective of the breakout which is 1375 before a consolidation or a pullback. Keep in mind that the minimum measuring objective of 1450 was set in May 2010 although the details are periodically revised as new data is obtained from the chart. It has been a long road since then. Now things get a little more complicated.

Ben Davies' Interview on King World News is a credible hypothesis into what may be happening over the next two years or so. I always assume these large macro changes take time, but there are periods when they reach a tipping point or a sea change and the progress of such changes can accelerate significantly. The markets may be signaling such a major development.

One thing I am sure of is that as this situation plays out and as gold and silver rally higher, the reasons given by some as to why the precious metals should not be doing what they are doing, rising higher in price, will become increasingly strident, insistent, and at times unintentionally funny because they are so disconnected and inappropriate compared to reality.

It requires intelligence and maturity to realize when you are wrong, but it is a mark of character to be able to admit it, gather yourself together, and go forward again successfully, dealing with things as they are. Self-deception is a powerful ally to failure, and rationalization can be remarkably inventive and seemingly inexhaustible. Everyone is admittedly wrong sometimes, except for the deluded, the naive, the con-man, and the narcissist.

Silver is 'taking no prisoners' from the bear camp in its own powerful breakout that continues to extend beyond our expectations. I am of a mind to take some profits off the table for the short term trades, but I certainly would not get in front of this juggernaut just yet, or more seriously hedge the long term positions. That time may come, and the market will let us all know when.

The Guardians of the Realm

How's Your Confidence Now?

 

How About Now?

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts

The ISM Services Index came in at 53.2 versus an expected 51.8 and it was off to the races with a day long short squeeze in US equities.

Tomorrow is the ADP report, with expectations of 18-20,000 jobs added in the private sector, a possible peek ahead at the big non-Farm Payrolls Report for September which carries expectations of flat jobs growth.

Personally I think the markets are starting to price in a QE2 stimulus and a whiff of inflation to go with it, with additional inspiration from the example of Japan, which is approaching a level of debt to GDP that generally begins to approach the threshold of hyperinflation to come.

However it develops, I doubt this will end well and remain very cautious of equities, leaving the day with a new small short position. We all have to be mindful of the Fed's ability to blow another asset bubble, more generally in equities. Difficult times to be an investor or a saver indeed.