Here is a human face on the flooding in Louisiana and some economic implications. I have edited out the personal references and details of his mail order business.
Here in Louisiana, there is palpable concern about the flood. I am 68 miles away from Vicksburg, due West on I-20. My effort to continue on working is one amongst many. But in the background there is the bated breath of trepidation for the economy as a whole, and for our own situation in particular.
Vicksburg crests May 19. The levees are expected to hold, but then Pemberton assured Davis he could hold Vicksburg. If I delay one week I will know for sure as the crisis should have passed. I don't want to find myself surrounded by flood waters which could reach more than two and maybe four feet here in Monroe. The lip of the Mississippi Delta is about 15 miles East of here. An extremis situation could be devastating.
Then downstream, south of here, when they open the Morganza Spillway much suffering will happen. Of course, their hope is to avoid wiping out no less than nine refineries, a plugged port facility, and the movement of commerce upriver.
What's the point of all this? No matter what, much sugar, cotton, etc will be wiped out, and already has been by the rain, floods, and now the intentional man made act of opening the spillway.
Sugar is about a twenty four month cycle. When they cover the thousands of hectares of cane a significant percentage of the years crop will vanish. Next year will be a recovery year with a more stable situation in sugar not before 2013. So much for the knock on effects of opening the spillway.
Not being reported much is the fact there are three nuclear power plants threatened by the rising waters. This poses some threat to compound the situation. Of course we aren't Japan, we're better and all that happy delusion. Of course, the same people built these reactors, so who's to say what may be?
I am suggesting the optimistic outcome, after a stiff market reaction. By late summer, maybe July, we'll all be taking a long sigh of relief. Meantime, the rails and trucks should be straining at their capacity to replace the disrupted flow of commerce caused by the stoppage of river traffic.
Even now, when you cross the bridge at Vicksburg, one can read the headlines of the newspaper the Northbound barge pilot is reading as he barely clears the undercarriage of the bridge. Whatever they're paying him, he should get a raise.
I don't even try to play these things. I am simply shedding some light on a situation for your consideration. Me, Imagonna get me some likker, maybe a gal named Sookie, and hope for the best.
I would be careful about playing these things. There is the market, and then there is the paper market in the States. And the paper market is dominated by a few financial monstrosities and a ravening pack of hedgehogs.
