16 May 2012

Eliot Spitzer on JPM and Bank Reform


“For all sad words of tongue and pen, The saddest are these, 'It might have been'.”

John Greenleaf Whittier

Flawed indeed.

Slate
Flawed Dimon

By Eliot Spitzer
May 14, 2012

What to do with Jamie Dimon? The CEO and Chair of JPMorgan Chase has tried so hard in the past several years to seem the “good banker.” He is so charming and gracious, yet all the while lobbying, cajoling, pushing, and wheedling to eviscerate any semblance of real reform on Wall Street. He shrugged off the cataclysm of 2008 as just something that happened, like the weather—no need for any structural reform.

Now the chickens have come home to roost—at least 2 billion of them—and it is clear that Chase is like every other big financial institution with distorted incentives. Thanks to a backstop of a federal guarantee, these gigantic institutions get to keep all the upside of crazy bets while the government gives them all the downside protection they need. Earlier this year, Dimon pooh-poohed concerns about the risks his traders were taking. Did Dimon not understand those risks, not care to know about them, or actually mislead the public about them?

But it isn’t so much money, they cry! True, in the context of Chase’s balance sheet, a $2 billion loss can be absorbed. But it shows once again the impossibility of trusting the banks in the absence of structural reform and regulation to control their willingness to take almost unmitigated risk. Of greater significance than the size relative to Chase’s balance sheet is that the loss was in a relatively stable market in which most people are finding it easy to trade. Imagine if the market had been choppy—the losses could have been even more gargantuan—and if several institutions had been in the same position, then the aggregate effect could have become once again cataclysmic.

It was Chase’s own lobbying on Capitol Hill and with the Treasury, the Fed, and other agencies that made these bets arguably permissible within the scope of hedging under the Volcker rule. Had they not lobbied and pushed and delayed and made the rule more complicated, these bets would have been illegal or at a minimum so transparent as to have been smaller and less damaging. The banks love to complain about the complexity of these rules. But the rule as proposed by Paul Volcker was simple. It is only because of the very lobbying by the banks that the complexity and loopholes crept in...

Read the rest here.


15 May 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - More Liquidation on Greece and Facebook



More concern on Greece and what will happen if it leaves the Euro had traders fleeing risk and commodities including gold and silver.

There is also quite a bit of secondary liquidation being done as traders raise cash for 'the Big Flip' when Facebook comes out after the bell on Thursday.

Expectations are for the stock to price in the 30's, and then run up in the secondary market into the 60's at which point those who had the IPO can liquidate if the momentum traders provide liquidity and institutions and mom and pop pick up the slack.

I am still long gold and short stocks. I hold no miners or silver. I am holding about 25% cash in my trading account and thinking about when to deploy it. Unless Europe collapses I think the bottom is very close. I would like to see an 'intraday V' to punctuate it.


SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - RNN Interviews Bill Black on JPM



Fears about what will happen with Greece and the Euro weighed on stocks.

There is also secondary liquidation as funds raise cash to play the big pop in the Facebook IPO which prices after the bell on Thursday.

Expectations are that the stock will come out in the 30's and pop higher to 50's at which point the momentum traders will start to flip it and hand it off to mom and pop and the pension funds.



Max Keiser Interviews Nomi Prins on JPM and Derivatives Bets