02 July 2012

The FT's Martin Wolf Shoots the 'Naturally Efficient Markets' Hypothesis in the Head


In the absence of effective regulatory oversight and objective restraint, the financial insiders rigged the market, not incidentally, but systemically and flagrantly over a long period of time.

Market manipulation is no obscure theory, not some secular transgression committed on the periphery by rogue traders, but a pervasive feature of the Anglo-American banking system that stubbornly resists reform through the accumulated power of a credibility trap.

A credibilty trap is a situation where the regulatory, political and informational functions of a society have been thoroughly taken in by a corrupting influence and a fraud so that one cannot even begin to discuss the situation honestly without implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure and the status quo who at least tolerated it, if not profited directly from it. Who will reform the reformers?

As I had hoped, the exposure of the LIBOR fixing scandal is proving to be a watershed moment, even though the common person outside the City of London hardly understands the implications of it yet.  It may not gain traction without another collapse, in times such as these, but it is an irrefutable landmark.

I think in time even the true believers in unrestrained markets, and so often the haters of all government, might find their faith in the natural goodness of those modern ubermensch, the financial corporations, to be shaken.

It was always a silly notion, that left to themselves people who are fraught with flaws and foibles and motivated by personal gain would act with perfect altruistic rationality like some sort of benign demi-gods. In prior days when educated people had learned history and philosophy and thereby some practical wisdom, as well as more marketable skills, the purveyors of such nonsense would have been laughed out of the room when proposing such an outlandish theory.

But change is hard to do. And we have several decades of the free-market follies running at a higher tide then normal now, with the utopian notion that we must knock down or cripple all the laws regulating the markets in order to be free. Free of the government, but naked and defenseless against private rapaciousness and the organized plunder of increasingly powerful supra-national corporations.

Their philosophy has been tried and found not only to be wanting, but barking mad. The problem with madness is that it is often unemcumbered by doubts and self-restraint, even as it falls into the abyss.

Martin Wolf's primary contribution to this is not some new and valuable insight, but rather the voice of a respected name, a 'serious person, who notes somewhat drily that the emperor is naked and we need to do something about it before he attacks the women and children in his ravings.

I chafe a bit at Mr. Wolf's somewhat unambitious prescription, that banks should be encouraged to charge higher fees, so they would not be so tempted to steal from their customers and the public, to fund their extravagant lifestyles. It does often appear to be a somewhat one-sided arrangement. Some US Banks Now Require Customers to Pay ALL Legal Fees in Disputes Regardless of Outcome.

I seem to recall a long period of time during which investment and utility banking were separate, and the incomes and lifestyles of the utility bankers were modest, more in keeping with an electric utility worker than a financial potentate.

Perhaps we should look to what went wrong with the banking and financial system, and re-learn the lessons of the past.

But do not expect this obvious thing to come easily. For as Robert F. Kennedy once observed, "About one fifth of the people are against everything, all the time." And the monied interests seem to have about one fifth of the people wrapped around their little fingers and whipped into a self-destructive hysteria these days.

But it seems as though the Allies are about to cross the Rhine, and the kings of Wall Street are huddling in their bunkers and ratholes, planning their final counterattack, moving divisions of hardened mercenaries and true believers to their defense, even as their enablers and sycophants in the Congress and the media start slipping slowly away.

This too shall pass, but not without causing further damage in the process. These are tricky and unscrupulous boys, and they have co-opted quite a bit of the system. But they have reached and surpassed their zenith, and their power begins to wane.  And so now it is time to leave.

It is always the hubris, and overreach, a step too far.

"My interpretation of the Libor scandal is the obvious one: banks, as presently constituted and managed, cannot be trusted to perform any publicly important function, against the perceived interests of their staff. Today’s banks represent the incarnation of profit-seeking behaviour taken to its logical limits, in which the only question asked by senior staff is not what is their duty or their responsibility, but what can they get away with.

As my colleague John Kay, has frequently point out, such behaviour, which might seem to be the logical consequence of profit-maximisation, is incompatible with the survival of a sophisticated market economy. Without trust in the probity of those one deals with a host of potentially profitable long-term arrangements will collapse. This is particularly true in banking, Trust is not an optional extra in banking, it is, as the salience of the word “credit” to this industry implies, of the essence.  ('credo, credere,' and all that - Jesse)

It is difficult to know how to restore not just the reality, but the perception, of trustworthiness, to this industry. But part of the answer must be a separation of the self-interested trading culture of today’s investment banking from the service-oriented culture of old-fashioned commercial banking. That has always seemed to me to be a strong argument for the ring-fencing of retail from investment banking that the ICB proposed...

The banking industry performs a set of vital public functions – the provision of credit and the management of money. But its culture is not that of service-oriented utilities, but rather of huge entities acting solely for their own purposes.

A full retail ring-fence, which separates the investment banking from the retail banking, (colloquially known as Glass-Steagall - Jesse)  plus much higher capital requirements, would be a good start. This combination would, I believe, see the disappearance of much unnecessary trading activity. Good riddance, I would say. But the UK would also have to accept that the present charging model for retail banking – free, if in credit – is also one of the reasons for the endless series of scandals. The model is broken, in the current low-interest rate environment. Banks must be encouraged to charge open fees for service, rather than make money by covert means...

Read the rest here.


That Most Dangerous Time in the History of a Great Nation


Someone reminded me of this passage from an old history book today. It was a memory of days gone by for me, when I studied Roman history for a whimsical second major in Classics as a bright eyed undergraduate.

People have been comparing the US to the Roman Empire in decline since at least the 1950's. It was a favorite meme of my mother, child as she was of the Great Depression and the Second World War.  And yet we sometimes look back now to that early postwar period as 'the good old days.'

Unstable times bring great risks. A.H. Beesley wrote this history shortly after the First World War, when the flower of Europe had been lost in the trenches and the British Empire was staggered.  Most people are not aware of the foundation of the Roman Republic with the overthrow of the monarchy around 500 BC, and the four hundred year period of the popular consuls, with their own decline, the third servile revolt of Spartacus, and the rise of the princeps, clever politicians and powerful generals, epitomized finally by the dictator, Julius Caesar.

Beesley asks the rhetorical question in 1921 that a Roman citizen might have asked in 70 BC, 'The hour for reform was surely come. Who was to be the man?'

And so, seemingly, here we are again.

Universal degeneracy of the Government, and decay of the nation

Everywhere Rome was failing in her duties as mistress of the
civilised world. Her own internal degeneracy was faithfully reflected
in the abnegation of her imperial duties. When in any country the
small-farmer class is being squeezed off the land; when its labourers
are slaves or serfs; when huge tracts are kept waste to minister to
pleasure; when the shibboleth of art is on every man's lips, but ideas
of true beauty in very few men's souls; when the business-sharper is
the greatest man in the city, and lords it even in the law courts;
when class-magistrates, bidding for high office, deal out justice
according to the rank of the criminal; when exchanges are turned into
great gambling-houses, and senators and men of title are the chief
gamblers; when, in short, 'corruption is universal, when there is
increasing audacity, increasing greed, increasing fraud, increasing
impurity, and these are fed by increasing indulgence and ostentation;
when a considerable number of trials in the courts of law bring out
the fact that the country in general is now regarded as a prey, upon
which any number of vultures, scenting it from afar, may safely
light and securely gorge themselves; when the foul tribe is amply
replenished by its congeners at home, and foreign invaders find any
number of men, bearing good names, ready to assist them in
robberies far more cruel and sweeping than those of the footpad or
burglar'--when such is the tone of society, and such the idols before
which it bends, a nation must be fast going down hill.

A more repulsive picture can hardly be imagined. A mob, a moneyed
class, and an aristocracy almost equally worthless, hating each other,
and hated by the rest of the world; Italians bitterly jealous of
Romans, and only in better plight than the provinces beyond the sea;
more miserable than either, swarms of slaves beginning to brood
over revenge as a solace to their sufferings; the land going out of
cultivation; native industry swamped by slave-grown imports; the
population decreasing; the army degenerating; wars waged as a
speculation, but only against the weak; provinces subjected to
organized pillage; in the metropolis childish superstition, whole sale
luxury, and monstrous vice.

The hour for reform was surely come. Who was to be the man?

A.H. Beesley, The Gracchi Marius and Sulla, 1921


30 June 2012

Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World



Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance, The Bankers Who Broke the World, discusses the parallels between the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis of today at The American Academy of Berlin.

I concur heartily with Mr. Ahamed on the primary causes of the bubble and collapse, especially with regard to the enormous policy errors of the Greenspan Fed.

But I always find it annoying that the conscious, widespread fraud that was promoted by Wall Street, both in 1929 and in the most recent crisis, is rarely discussed as the major corrupting influence that distorted both economic and monetary policy and the real economy.

I cannot speak to the 1920s, but there is little doubt in my mind that there was a concerted effort to game and corrupt the financial system that gained a major momentum in the 1990s, and that culminated in the financial collapse and economic malaise and instability that is plaguing the world today.

One needs look at the actions of Messrs. Greenspan, Rubin, and Weil, and the political administrations during Clinton and Bush and Obama, to begin to penetrate the veil of secrecy.

The only mania and madness of the people was in trusting the words of demagogues and conmen, and their associated supporters and enablers. And even today people continue to mouth their false slogans and fatal prescriptions.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained growth and recovery.





29 June 2012

Weekend Reading: You Are Called To a Great Undertaking


“Evil has no substance of its own, but is only the defect, excess, perversion, or corruption of that which has substance.”

J. H. Newman

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him. We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now. We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

There is an inward world, which none see but those who belong to it.

God beholds you. He calls you by your name. He sees you and understands you as He made you. He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses. He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow. He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations. He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms. He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears. He looks tenderly upon you. He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing. You do not love yourself better than He loves you.

You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission -- I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons. He has not created me for naught.

I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him. If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.

He does nothing in vain. He knows what He is about.

He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers. He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me -- still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are--sinners attempting great things. Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

Fear not that thy life shall come to an end, but rather that it shall never have had a beginning.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.

Then in His mercy may He give us safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at last.”

John Henry Newman