Showing posts with label LIBOR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LIBOR. Show all posts

16 January 2014

Top German Regulator Says Currency and Precious Metal Rigging 'Worse Than LIBOR'


The 'free markets' are permeated by frauds, many of them perpetrated by the Banks, which affect the price of transactions in liquid markets.  

What a surprise.

Did someone forget to offer Frau Koenig a post-government job in Private Equity?

In fairness, I can definitely see this managed as a 'limited hang out' public relations operation with some fines put forward for front running the London fix, but the great bulk of the abusive price rigging in the futures markets left untouched for confidence and the 'good of the system.'

I think the real issue will be the unfolding inventory scandals if they lose control of the great shell game.

Bloomberg
Metals, Currency Rigging Worse Than Libor, Bafin Chief Says

By Karin Matussek and Oliver Suess
Jan 16, 2014 2:04 PM ET

Germany’s top financial regulator said possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion.

The allegations about the currency and precious metals markets are “particularly serious, because such reference values are based -- unlike Libor and Euribor -- typically on transactions in liquid markets and not on estimates of the banks,” Elke Koenig, the president of Bafin, said in a speech in Frankfurt today.

Koenig is the first global finance regulator to comment publicly on the investigations as probes into the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, expand into other benchmarks. Joaquin Almunia, the European Union’s antitrust chief, said yesterday that its preliminary probe into possible foreign-exchange manipulation covers similar practices as in the regulator’s probe into Libor-rigging...

Bafin interviewed employees of Deutsche Bank AG as part of a probe of potential manipulation of gold and silver prices, a person with knowledge of the matter has said in December. The U.K. finance regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, is also reviewing gold benchmarks as part of its wider investigation into how rates are set...

Read the original article here.

18 June 2013

SHIBOR Signaling Stress in the Financial System - Liquidity Crunch


Here is some interesting data out of China. The story is by Matt Phillips.

The inter-bank liquidity crunch is a classic banking problem for which the central bank as lender and regulator was created.

It would be nice if the bankers could get in front of these problems as they develop, and not merely throw the public's money at them after the fact when bad bank management, official corruption, and excessive greed have made the system vulnerable.

LIBOR itself is quiet, which suggests that this problem is particular to China, at least for now.  The only LIBOR stories breaking are charges against bank traders for manipulating that interbank rate.

Shibor
Here’s what’s behind the Chinese cash crunch
By Matt Phillips

"Remember Libor? When that once obscure measure of short-term interest rates shot higher in 2007 and 2008, it was one of the earliest warnings signs of what would eventually become the financial crisis. Now, its Chinese cousin—known as Shibor—is telegraphing the rising stress in the opaque financial system of the world’s second largest economy.



What does the spike in rates mean? Large banks are increasingly leery of tapping into their pools of cash to lend to each other. Recent reports that China Everbright Bank failed to repay a short-term loan to Industrial Bank Co. aren’t helping. Industrial Bank says that report is “untrue and exaggerated.” But short-term lending markets suggest other bankers are skeptical.

So what’s the solution? Chinese authorities tamed short-term interest rate spikes before. They could create new cash to lubricate lending, or lower reserve requirements for banks, which would boost liquidity. According to the Wall Street Journal, that’s what bankers are hoping for..."

Read the complete original here.

05 July 2012

Taibbi, Spitzer, and Kelleher On LIBOR - But Even They Don't Understand the Bigger Picture


"Bleed, bleed, poor country!
Great Tyranny! lay thou thy basis sure,
For goodness dares not check thee!"

William Shakespeare, Macbeth. Act IV. Sc. 3.

The LIBOR scandal is shaking the remaining confidence that people have in the financial system.

It is the equivalent to rigging the US benchmark interest rates with advance insider knowledge to benefit the banks' personal accounts to the loss of everyone else.

 Oh wait, they already do that, don't they?

Bear in mind, the Federal Reserve is a private institution, owned and managed by the Banks. The government itself uses the bankers to achieve their own policy ends, both domestically and abroad, and turns a blind eye to their more brazen extracurricular privateering for their own accounts out of professional courtesy, and blackmail.

What is equally outrageous is the long term manipulation of gold and silver, which are also foundational benchmarks of the monetary system. 

The manipulation in the metals has been exposed for some time now, and is virtually in plain sight. 

The same parties involved in LIBOR are involved in manipulation across multiple markets, actively mispricing risk and misallocating capital to serve the greed of the privileged few.

And the pity is so few people get it.  But they will.  As I had forecast, this is the year of revelations.

When it comes out they will say, 'we did it for the sake of the system.' 

And don't be a sap, because after all, everybody knows.



(h/t Capitalism Without Failure)





"Separate But 'Equal'"


03 July 2012

And Bob Diamond Resigns 'Under Pressure'



"And remember, where you have a concentration of power in a few hands, all too frequently men with the mentality of gangsters get control. History has proven that."

John Dalberg Lord Acton

What I hear is that Mr. Bob Diamond's arrogant defiance so outraged Whitehall, and so embarrassed the monied interests,  that the word went down to the Bank of England to show him the door, immediately as an example, in the Old Lady's role of making and breaking the major players in the City.

And for good measure, they encouraged the resignation of his recently promoted heir apparent, Mr. Jerry del Missier.

Mr. Diamond would have been lauded in the States, and offered a settlement and a wristslap, soft pillows and sweet praises by fawning lawmakers and the captive corporate media.

He will still have to appear before the government for questioning on Wednesday. That might be worth watching.

Someone should have cautioned him that the Jamie Dimon model of deriding the regulators and attempting to intimidate the government does not work as well in the UK.

The Tories may not be any more interested in serving the interests of their people, but they do have some measure of pride in their office and self-respect, of decorum, in comparison to Wall Street's bawds in the Congressional corporate campaign contributions bordello.


Coventry Telegraph
Diamond Quits As Barclays Chief
3 July 2012

Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond has resigned with immediate effect in the wake of the rate-rigging scandal.

The American banker, who has faced mounting calls to step down, said: "The external pressure placed on Barclays has reached a level that risks damaging the franchise."

He added: "I am deeply disappointed that the impression created by the events announced last week about what Barclays and its people stand for could not be further from the truth."

The move comes after Barclays was fined £290 million by UK and US regulators for manipulating the Libor, the rate at which banks lend to each other.

Chairman Marcus Agius, who announced his intention to resign over the affair yesterday, will lead the search for a new chief executive immediately, Barclays said. (At Broadmoor Hospital? - Jesse)

Read more here.


"Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."

John Dalberg Lord Acton

Guardian
Bankers and the Neuroscience of Greed

Ian Robertson
2 July 2012


On 11 August 2011, Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays, delivered the BBC Today Programme business lecture. In it he declared that "culture" was the critical element in responsible banking, and the best test of it is "how people behave while no one is watching." We now know that banking failed the test and so must ask why, in Sir Mervyn King's words, "excessive compensation", "shoddy treatment of customers", "mis-selling" and "the deceitful manipulation of a key interest rate", flourished in the banking sector. Cognitive neuroscience can point to some answers.

Senior bankers hold enormous power, greater than that of many elected national leaders. Largely unaccountable except to occasional shareholders meetings and often quiescent boards, their power is much less constrained than that of democratically elected leaders. And given that power is one of the most potent brain-changing drugs known to humankind, unconstrained power has enormously distorting effects on behaviour, emotions and thinking.

Holding power changes brains by boosting testosterone, which in turn increases the chemical messenger dopamine in the brain's reward systems. Extraordinary power causes extraordinary brain changes, which in their extreme form manifest themselves in personality distortions, such as those seen in dictators like Muammar Gaddafi.

The "masters of the universe" who have arisen out of a deregulated world financial system were given unprecedented power that inevitably must have caused major changes to their brains. While power in moderate doses can make people smarter, more strategic in their thinking, bolder and less depressed, in too-large doses it can make them egocentric and un-empathic, greedy for rewards – financial, sexual, interpersonal, material – likely to treat others as objects, and with a dulled perception of risk...

Read the rest here.


AP
Diamond in the rough; Banker Bob falls on sword
By Gregory Katz
Jul. 3, 2012

LONDON (AP) — He was a poster boy for corporate arrogance, telling Parliament last year that the time for bankers to apologize had passed.

Now Bob Diamond is just the latest victim of growing public anger at a British establishment they regard as greedy and ethically challenged. Bankers, politicians and journalists have all felt the full force of the growing disdain at a time of economic troubles.

The hard-driving CEO of Barclays bank resigned Tuesday, buckling under massive media pressure and a few none-too-subtle hints from top politicians that his days at the top should be numbered.

In the few short days since Barclays was fined $453 million for its role in the LIBOR interest rate fixing scandal, Diamond, an American with a stratospheric pay package, came to symbolize everything wrong with international banking...

Read the rest here.

02 July 2012

Credibility Trap: Silver and Financial Markets Are Manipulated, But So What?


"The world is now five years on from the outbreak of the financial crisis, yet the global economy is still unbalanced and seemingly becoming more so as interacting weaknesses continue to amplify each other. The goals of balanced growth, balanced economic policies and a safe financial system still elude us.

In advanced economies at the centre of the financial crisis, high debt loads continue to drag down recovery; monetary and fiscal policies still lack a comprehensive solution to short-term needs and long-term dangers; and despite the international progress on regulation, the condition of the financial sector still poses a threat to stability.

From time to time, encouraging signs raise hopes – but they are quickly dashed, delivering another blow to the confidence of consumers and investors."

Bank for International Settlements, Breaking the Vicious Cycle, 82nd Annual Report, 24 June 2012

Someone sent this video show below to me in response to the things I have written earlier today.

I find the whole clip absolutely remarkable when viewed from an objective, or at least a non-American and non-financial industry, point of view. The exceptionalism and denial in this discussion as it unfolds is surprising to watch, and the groups chastises Europe while dismissing the corruption in the Anglo-American banking system that significantly contributed to the crisis.

Normally we do not hear such relatively open talk until the late stages of an unfolding financial collapse when hiding the reality of what is happening becomes pointless.

What really "knocks one's socks off" is the general admission and conclusion beginning around minute 9 of this video that the banks are manipulating the financial and commodity markets, with silver specifically mentioned. And the panel accepts it as 'oh well, that's the banking system.' That's just the way things are and if you don't like it, well then tough luck for you.

I am sure these are all very nice people, but they are so deeply involved with the financial system that they have lost their perspective. And that is a general problem with some of the professions like economics and financial reporting. Perhaps this is why we seem to be getting the best information on this from non-financial sources, with a few notable exceptions.

This is a fine example of the credibility trap. The truth is so damaging to oneself as a member of a particular status quo that it can rarely be admitted, and if admitted, cannot be taken seriously. After all, the game is rigged, and everyone knows. Well at least everyone who counts, but for anyone who says it before its time they are ridiculed, shunned, and dismissed.

As I have said, at least CNBC is willing occasionally to entertain such discussions, as opposed to the extended infomercials and streaming agitprop carried in the guise of reporting on some of the other corporate news channels.

After a long discussion of how the private sector must suffer further, a somewhat eccentric but interesting review of the European postwar economies, and some additional economic babytalk, the group segways to JPM's upcoming earnings report and the London Banking scandal.

I particularly enjoyed Chris Whalen's description of JPM's CIO as a 'rogue hedge fund in London.' He knows better. And the dismissal of the LIBOR scandal as business as usual, which Mervyn King recently described as 'a culture of deceit,' is truly interesting. Does such self-serving hypocrisy have any limits, to not even bother to feign surprise?

I do not wish to pick on Chris, but he is a smart and generally well-educated fellow, a graduate of Villanova, but he is still a creature of the system, a former employee of the NY Fed and Bear Stearns, and captive to a cultural mind set, perhaps without even realizing it, that is apparent to an outsider.

Whalen: None of its [JPM's CIO losses] are acceptable, but see the whole point is Jamie got entangled in the media. (He got caught lying and gambling with customer money - Jesse) If this had just been a reported loss with a lot of other numbers we wouldn't be talking about it. It's a trivial number in the grand scheme of things.

Sorkin: What may be less trivial is this situation, this scandal involving LIBOR.

Whalen: Ah well, welcome to the banking industry. Come on, uh, you know... (wink wink, nod nod)

Sorkin: You hear about these things...

Whalen: Foreign exchange, Libor...

Sorkin: You used to think these were conspiracy theories. Right? You hear this about people manipulating LIBOR, you hear about people manipulating the silver market, and you'd say...

Michelle: And they are!

Sorkin: And they are!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the credibility trap in action, during the late stage decline and failure of a thoroughly rotten economic status quo.




The FT's Martin Wolf Shoots the 'Naturally Efficient Markets' Hypothesis in the Head


In the absence of effective regulatory oversight and objective restraint, the financial insiders rigged the market, not incidentally, but systemically and flagrantly over a long period of time.

Market manipulation is no obscure theory, not some secular transgression committed on the periphery by rogue traders, but a pervasive feature of the Anglo-American banking system that stubbornly resists reform through the accumulated power of a credibility trap.

A credibilty trap is a situation where the regulatory, political and informational functions of a society have been thoroughly taken in by a corrupting influence and a fraud so that one cannot even begin to discuss the situation honestly without implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure and the status quo who at least tolerated it, if not profited directly from it. Who will reform the reformers?

As I had hoped, the exposure of the LIBOR fixing scandal is proving to be a watershed moment, even though the common person outside the City of London hardly understands the implications of it yet.  It may not gain traction without another collapse, in times such as these, but it is an irrefutable landmark.

I think in time even the true believers in unrestrained markets, and so often the haters of all government, might find their faith in the natural goodness of those modern ubermensch, the financial corporations, to be shaken.

It was always a silly notion, that left to themselves people who are fraught with flaws and foibles and motivated by personal gain would act with perfect altruistic rationality like some sort of benign demi-gods. In prior days when educated people had learned history and philosophy and thereby some practical wisdom, as well as more marketable skills, the purveyors of such nonsense would have been laughed out of the room when proposing such an outlandish theory.

But change is hard to do. And we have several decades of the free-market follies running at a higher tide then normal now, with the utopian notion that we must knock down or cripple all the laws regulating the markets in order to be free. Free of the government, but naked and defenseless against private rapaciousness and the organized plunder of increasingly powerful supra-national corporations.

Their philosophy has been tried and found not only to be wanting, but barking mad. The problem with madness is that it is often unemcumbered by doubts and self-restraint, even as it falls into the abyss.

Martin Wolf's primary contribution to this is not some new and valuable insight, but rather the voice of a respected name, a 'serious person, who notes somewhat drily that the emperor is naked and we need to do something about it before he attacks the women and children in his ravings.

I chafe a bit at Mr. Wolf's somewhat unambitious prescription, that banks should be encouraged to charge higher fees, so they would not be so tempted to steal from their customers and the public, to fund their extravagant lifestyles. It does often appear to be a somewhat one-sided arrangement. Some US Banks Now Require Customers to Pay ALL Legal Fees in Disputes Regardless of Outcome.

I seem to recall a long period of time during which investment and utility banking were separate, and the incomes and lifestyles of the utility bankers were modest, more in keeping with an electric utility worker than a financial potentate.

Perhaps we should look to what went wrong with the banking and financial system, and re-learn the lessons of the past.

But do not expect this obvious thing to come easily. For as Robert F. Kennedy once observed, "About one fifth of the people are against everything, all the time." And the monied interests seem to have about one fifth of the people wrapped around their little fingers and whipped into a self-destructive hysteria these days.

But it seems as though the Allies are about to cross the Rhine, and the kings of Wall Street are huddling in their bunkers and ratholes, planning their final counterattack, moving divisions of hardened mercenaries and true believers to their defense, even as their enablers and sycophants in the Congress and the media start slipping slowly away.

This too shall pass, but not without causing further damage in the process. These are tricky and unscrupulous boys, and they have co-opted quite a bit of the system. But they have reached and surpassed their zenith, and their power begins to wane.  And so now it is time to leave.

It is always the hubris, and overreach, a step too far.

"My interpretation of the Libor scandal is the obvious one: banks, as presently constituted and managed, cannot be trusted to perform any publicly important function, against the perceived interests of their staff. Today’s banks represent the incarnation of profit-seeking behaviour taken to its logical limits, in which the only question asked by senior staff is not what is their duty or their responsibility, but what can they get away with.

As my colleague John Kay, has frequently point out, such behaviour, which might seem to be the logical consequence of profit-maximisation, is incompatible with the survival of a sophisticated market economy. Without trust in the probity of those one deals with a host of potentially profitable long-term arrangements will collapse. This is particularly true in banking, Trust is not an optional extra in banking, it is, as the salience of the word “credit” to this industry implies, of the essence.  ('credo, credere,' and all that - Jesse)

It is difficult to know how to restore not just the reality, but the perception, of trustworthiness, to this industry. But part of the answer must be a separation of the self-interested trading culture of today’s investment banking from the service-oriented culture of old-fashioned commercial banking. That has always seemed to me to be a strong argument for the ring-fencing of retail from investment banking that the ICB proposed...

The banking industry performs a set of vital public functions – the provision of credit and the management of money. But its culture is not that of service-oriented utilities, but rather of huge entities acting solely for their own purposes.

A full retail ring-fence, which separates the investment banking from the retail banking, (colloquially known as Glass-Steagall - Jesse)  plus much higher capital requirements, would be a good start. This combination would, I believe, see the disappearance of much unnecessary trading activity. Good riddance, I would say. But the UK would also have to accept that the present charging model for retail banking – free, if in credit – is also one of the reasons for the endless series of scandals. The model is broken, in the current low-interest rate environment. Banks must be encouraged to charge open fees for service, rather than make money by covert means...

Read the rest here.


21 May 2010

Much Ado About TED, LIBOR, and Currency Swaps


There is some alarm being expressed about the recent increase in the TED spread from some quarters this week.

Here is a short term chart of the TED. It is definitely elevated expressing the accelerated demand for dollars in Europe. Although the BIS reports will not catch up with this action for quite a while, I suspect we are seeing a replay of a flight away from dodgy assets such as dollar denominated CDO's that European customers had deposited with their banks that are now being liquidated again. Also, and undeniably, there is a flight to gold, Swiss francs, and US dollars from the Euro as the ECB and the EMU sort out their serious issues brought about by a single currency and monetary policy working across a wide diversity of localized fiscal conditions.



However, here is the longer term picture of the TED spread. As you can see, it is a bit too early to hit the warning sirens. But it does bear watching.



The long view is not very dramatic, and also not as useful for promoting short euro hedge fund trades, or for generating viewer clicks.

For some additional perspective, here is a chart of the one year LIBOR rate.



Here is a short term view of LIBOR in US Dollars. It is definitely elevated.



But here is a similar short term view of LIBOR expressed in ECU's. By comparing the two LIBOR charts one might think that there is an elevated demand for dollars, probably attributable to a flight to safety. The DX chart indicates that it seems to be peaking. But it can always take a turn for the worse.



And while we are at it, here is a reprise of a prior discussion of the Fed's swap lines with Europe, designed to relieve imbalanced demand for dollars.

The US is indeed contributing to the bailout of Greece, via its membership in the IMF. But not through the currency swap lines, unless there is something else going on there behind the scenes. Since the US owns the biggest printing press in the world, at least for now, that would not be a shock.

There may be a time to worry about European insolvency. But quite a bit of what we are hearing about Europe these days seems a bit overwrought, and spoken from the perspective of a particular set of speculative trades.

11 October 2008

LIBOR is in Backwardation and Significantly Divergent from Effective Fed Funds


LIBOR has ceased to function as a reliable benchmark suitable for commercial and residential loans in terms of US dollars.

It is in backwardation with an inverted yield curve, and has significantly diverged from the Effective Fed Funds rate.

This is most likely because of the Eurodollar 'short squeeze,' as shown by the record TED spread, and the inappropriately small sample size of LIBOR reporting banks.

This is all a symptom of the greater issue of the US dollar, which is no longer suitable as the reserve currency for global central banking.

The Federal Reserve is no longer able manage the dollar to simulate the stability of an external standard, given their decision to ignore nominal money supply growth. Their current mandate instead focuses them on purely domestic economic metrics that may be inappropriate for the changing state and requirements of exogenous economic systems, unless those systems are willing to subordinate their fiscal and monetary discretion.


What is LIBOR?

The London InterBank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, is the average interest rate charged when banks in the London interbank market borrow unsecured funds from each other.

There are different LIBOR rates for numerous currencies, including U.S. dollars.

The world banking system has adopted the LIBOR as a benchmark for short-term, interbank loans.

The LIBOR rates are now internationally recognized indices used for pricing many types of consumer and corporate loans, debt instruments and debt securities across the globe, and is the reference for many loans including the vast majority of Interest-Only Loans in The United States.

LIBOR rates are fixed every UK business day by the British Bankers' Association BBA.

The Fed Funds Target Rate, America's benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. Prime Rate are managed by America's central bank: the Federal Reserve.

The LIBOR rates, however, are fixed by a relatively small group of large private international banks themselves

The Bank of America
JP Morgan Chase
Citibank, NA
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
Barclays Bank plc
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank AG
HBOS
HSBC
Lloyds TSB Bank plc
Rabobank
Royal Bank of Canada
The Norinchukin Bank
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group
UBS AG
West LB AG


Is LIBOR a stable benchmark of short term money rates?

There is a case to be made that LIBOR is an inappropriate reference to be used for commercial short term rates because it is subject to distortions given the relatively selective sample size of the reporting banks. One or two troubled banks can significantly impact average LIBOR.

The spreads between the highest and lowest quoted rates in an efficient measure should be narrow and convergent. Recently the spreads among the LIBOR quoting banks have become shockingly wide, reflecting the non-competitive nature of the short term interbank loans given the massive intervention by the central banks as they flood the markets with loans designed to recapitalize the banking system.




Here is the detail of the composition of the 3 Month LIBOR. One might expect this to be a scorecard of default risk amongst the reporting banks from the perspective of their peers.





How does LIBOR compare to a short term rate measure such as Effective Fed Funds?

There has been a strong correlation between the Effective Funds Rate and LIBOR dollar rate as one might expect.



However, recently there is a growing divergence between LIBOR $US rates and the Effective Fed Funds Rate. This is a symptom of distress in the banking system and shows the inappropriate character of LIBOR for use as a benchmark for the commercial and residential loans markets.




And perhaps most surprisingly, the LIBOR dollar rate curve is now inverted.


How can LIBOR be Inverted when the Effective Fed Funds Rate is steepening?

This is most likely a symptom of fear of risk of capital return in interbank lending. It may also be a sign that the current eurodollar short squeeze is expected to dissipate, as it will as the capital markets revert to the means and efficient operation.



One might also pointedly ask what the G7 will be doing to address the distortions being introduced into the European banking system by the US dollar and its shortages due to the precipitous deterioration of US dollar debt assets held by European banks, as the solution for this seems to be eluding the bureaucrats in Brussels.

As a hint, the US dollar, like LIBOR, is being used inappropriately and the basis for international trade must change to a more stable measure.