24 August 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


The market was light volume and lackluster today when a letter from Ben Bernanke to Darrell Issa was released that suggested a bias to ease 'depending on the data.'

This is nothing new of course, but the market players took it as an opportunity to rally.

There were also rumours and speculation that the ECB would take further action to subsidize rates in their soverigns' debt.

Next week is the end of the month and the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

See you Sunday evening.




Romney Tax Files: Converting Management Fees Into Carried Interest


When Gawker first published the Bain Capital tax return data I remember reading somewhere that one should not bother even looking at them because they are not relevant and won't tell you anything.

That struck me as odd at the time. How could someone just dismiss information like this as not even worth reading? Move on, don't look at them?

Well, apparently that is not the case. They seem to contain some nuggets of information suggesting that Romney was being particular aggressive (euphemism for engaging in extra-legal activity) in misstating not trivial income for the purpose of avoiding taxes.

One can only wonder what those undisclosed personal returns might contain.

I don't want to pick on Mitt in particular, although he is starting to look like a setup to make the other guy look good. And what he had done with his income from Bain is certainly open to interpretation as the author admits.

But rather, this speaks to the 'rule of law' issue and how there is a duality in the US, and some animals are more equal than others. And strangely enough, the barnyard hoots its approval.

"Private equity fund managers are compensated in two primary ways: management fees and carried interest. The management fee, traditionally two percent annually, is paid to the managers to cover overhead, salaries, and so forth. The carried interest, traditionally twenty percent, is a share of the profits from the underlying investments. My paper Two and Twenty described the typical arrangement.

Management fees are taxed at ordinary income rates; carried interest is often taxed at capital gains rates (around 15 percent - Jesse). I focused in the article on why the carried interest portion is better viewed like bonus compensation and should be taxed at ordinary income rates.

Current law on carried interest is already a sweetheart tax deal for private equity, but why not make it better? Private equity folks are not the type to walk past a twenty-dollar bill lying on the sidewalk.

In the 2000s it became common for private equity fund managers to “convert” their management fees into carried interest. There are many variations on the theme, but here’s how many deals worked: each year, before the annual management fee comes due, the fund manager waives the management fee in exchange for a priority allocation of future profits. There is minimal economic risk involved; as long as the fund, at some point, has a profitable quarter, the managers get paid. (If the managers don’t foresee any future profits, they won’t waive the fees, and they will take cash instead.)

In exchange for a minimal amount of economic risk, the tax benefit is enormous: the compensation is transformed from ordinary income (taxed at 35%) into capital gain (taxed at 15%). Because the management fees for a large private equity fund can be ten or twenty million per year, the tax dodge can literally save millions in taxes every year.

The problem is that it is not legal. Because the deals vary in their aggressiveness, there is some disagreement among practitioners about when it works and when it doesn’t. But in my opinion, and the opinion of many tax practitioners, the practices that were common in the private equity industry in the 2000s became very, very questionable, and it’s unlikely that they would have stood up in court.

Gawker today posted some Bain documents today showing that Bain, like many other PE firms, had engaged in this practice of converting management fees into capital gain. Unlike carried interest, which is unseemly but perfectly legal, Bain’s management fee conversions are not legal. If challenged in court, Bain would lose. The Bain partners, in my opinion, misreported their income if they reported these converted fees as capital gain instead of ordinary income."

Victor Fleischer, Romney’s Management Fee Conversions

Read the entire article here.

US Dollar Intermediate Term Chart



Because of the way in which it is constituted, the US Dollar DX Index is largely the 'inverse Euro' chart with some yen and pound and franc thrown in.

Because of that, and as I have noted previously, the index is becoming less meaningful as other currencies, which are not accounted for at all in the index, especially those from the BRICs, gain more importance to the world monetary system. 

And of course the Index represents no commodities including gold and silver.





Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Why A Gold Crisis Looms


It is a slow day today with the usual end of week profit taking. Even the monetary whack-a-mole, Zimbabwe Ben, popped his head out today to give a verbal goose to the markets.

I came across an article that addresses an interesting phenomenon that rarely gets an airing, except perhaps by those stalwarts in GATA.

"The World Gold Council recently released its second quarter statistics on gold “demand and supply trends”. For those not familiar with the WGC, it is an “industry trade group” composed of large-cap gold miners who love bankers.

How much do these mining companies love bankers? So much that they allow the bankers to keep all the records for their sector, and pretty much do all of their of their promotion to the world. It is the WGC which elevated two private “consultancies” (of bankers) – GFMS and the CPM Group – to the status of quasi-official record-keepers for the entire global gold (and silver) industry.

It would be problematic at best for the gold industry to allow itself to be almost entirely represented by a “profession” now known only for its rampant fraud. However, given the known hatred of the banking community toward gold and silver, and their relentless attacks on both the bullion market and the miners themselves; it’s almost beyond comprehension that the world’s largest gold miners choose bankers as their spokesmen.

I’ve already exposed the devious/perverse manner in which these consultancies produce phony inventory numbers in the silver market. In the upside-down world of these “record-keepers”, when someone purchases an ounce of silver from a silver-ETF (and thus takes that ounce of silver off of the market), the CPM Group adds another ounce to total inventories.

In other words, if silver investors were to buy-up every ounce of silver currently available in the world (via silver-ETF’s), global silver inventories would supposedly double, while if silver-ETF holders were to sell all their holdings it would (apparently) collapse inventories..."

Jeff Nelson, Why a Gold Crisis Looms

Speaking of the available supply of silver, Ed Steer reports this morning that:
"Sprott's Physical Silver Trust reported receiving 320,000 ounces of silver yesterday...and still has over a bit over a million ounces left to be delivered from their latest offering. Since they got the first tranche on July 11th, they have received just under seven million ounces...and since they purchased a bit more than eight million ounces, they're just awaiting the balance...44 days [6+ weeks] since receiving the first shipment. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get the rest. From this information it should be obvious that good delivery bars are not exactly laying around."

I doubt the concerns about manipulation in the markets will amount to anything until an actual crisis hits, and someone big defaults on either gold or silver and threatens to take down an exchange. And then the masters of the universe will run around waving their hands saying 'we have a problem, we have a problem,' and do something obtusely irrational and carelessly self-serving to try and fix it. You know, like TARP, or most corporate reorganizations for that matter.

(Inside the idiom reference. At a certain technical school in Cambridge Mass they used to refer to the case study crackheads up Mass Ave as the 'hand wavers' who, when things did not go as planned, only knew enough to recognize that they were in trouble, and run around waving their hands saying 'we have a problem, we have a problem.' And then, after a few stupid attempts at a quick fix and a cover up made things much worse, look for someone to fix it for them. In my own defense I was not formally enrolled at that particular tech school, I was merely a 'fellow traveler.' In other words, I had a girlfriend.)

Gold continues to command a higher premium than silver in the funds.

In a recent interview (JPM Is In Trouble) Bill Murphy made some allusions to a scandal brewing in the silver market that may burst upon the public before year end. One can only imagine. Bill is an optimist, which is one of his great strengths and supports. I am stoically skeptical, but long term hopeful, about anything approaching transparency, disclosure and reform. And the current trend in reform is not promising.

I provided an update to the NAV chart at 3:00 PM.

See you at the close.