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In addition to the end of quarter mark to market boogie woogie, which I think is responsible for quite a bit of the stock market action, there are also a few key things happening in the gold and silver futures markets this week that also provide the occasion for some 'technical trading.'
Harvey Organ reminds us that the metals often get 'hit' as an active month rolls over, to discourage speculators from taking delivery on their contracts. This is often marked by the 'first notice day.'
In the short term the markets are a bit treacherous because of the lack of enforcement of the basic rules that govern healthy markets. In the longer term these things tend to become just noise.
Pick whatever time frames you wish, but know the character of the markets in which you choose to participate.
Also bear in mind that during times of excessive market speculation because of hot money and lax regulation, information sources are often used and even co-opted to help to shape 'perceptions.'
This may even be unconscious if the information provider does not view certain stories that are offered at certain times with a skeptical eye. A little truth broadly embellished and assigned is the most reliable sort of lie.
Sept. 26 Comex October miNY gold futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September silver futures last trading day
Sept. 27 Comex October gold options expiry
Sept. 28 Comex September gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October E-mini gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October gold futures first notice day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex October silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October gold futures last trading day
Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
The formation will not be valid until the previous high is exceeded and there is a clear breakout, or a handle is set for a 'cup and handle.'
These charts are from my friend Nick Laird.
The lesson seems to be 'buy post London fix' and 'sell before the London AM fix.'
Or just ignore the intraday wiggles if you do not have the time and inclination to trade, and wait for this cynical, hypocritical, and criminally fraudulent market centered in NY and London to tear itself apart.
The metals were hit today along with stocks. Stocks were hit because of the lousy economic indications from companies, and the sour words from the Philly Fed's Charley Plosser (see the post below this).
Gold and silver were hit pretty much on a matter of principle I think. The principle is that this is the end of quarter, and so we will see selling today and maybe a little tomorrow as the funds hit they bow-wows and raise some cash for the end of week ramp-o-rama.
The metals may not participate since the Big Shorts need some help on their mark to market losses. And their guiding principle is 'do what thou wilt' with Other People's Money.
Let's see how this plays out.
The Philly Fed's Charles Plosser did a reverse jawbone on Fed policy today when he remarked:"We are unlikely to see much benefit to growth or to employment from further asset purchases. Conveying the idea that such action will have a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility.”
Read the entire story here.
In case you were wondering Plosser is not a voting member of the Fed's FOMC this year.
It is one thing for a nobody like myself to say this sort of thing, but when the President of the Philly Fed says it, it can move markets, and it did. It did not help that Catepillar had guided lower last night and the market was primed for some profit taking at this stage of the end of quarter two step dance.
It is going to take significant financial and economic reform and rebalancing to sustain this recovery. Plosser didn't recommend anything other than to say that the Fed cannot do anything more, and that it 'risks its credibility.'
Sorry Charlie. It doesn't have any credibility anymore. The last two bubbles fixed that.
Sheila Bair beat up Turbo Timmy and his bankster buddies in the early releases of her new book. He is the bailout king according to her and raised some serious questions about his catering to a few of the big TBTF's like Citigroup.
David Malpass was the 'closer' on Bloomberg TV today. He said some odd sounding things for someone who is a famed 'chief economist.' But that is what it said on his business card at Bear Stearns so it must be true.
If this is going to be a typical end of quarter shenanigan fest then we should see the selling dry up tomorrow and a ramp into the weekend coming.
Jitters over Iran are not helping markets to keep their paint from peeling. But the paint will probably go on the tape nonetheless.
