23 August 2013

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


I think that the explanation for the negative premium on the Central Gold Trust lies in its thinner liquidity.

For example so far today it has traded 90,000 units in the US, against 861,000 units for the Sprott Physical Gold Trust. A seller at 49.14 distorted the price a bit as the market slowly chipped away at the offer.

The Central Fund is more responsive to market changes, with units traded today at 734,000.

But I do think that the redemption feature at Sprott, though lightly used, makes a difference in value perception for whatever that is worth.

With the gold/silver ratio having fallen to 58 so far, it is obvious that silver's high beta has caused it to rally harder than gold at this point. That is normal and healthy for the metals overall.



The Center of the Gold Trading World Is Now In Shanghai


"If once you forfeit the confidence of your fellow citizens, you can never regain their respect and esteem."

Abraham Lincoln


"It is lack of confidence, more than anything else, that kills a civilisation. We can destroy ourselves by cynicism and disillusion, just as effectively as by bombs."

Kenneth Clark


"At the root of America's economic crisis lies a moral crisis: the decline of civic virtue among America's political and economic elite. A society of markets, laws, and elections is not enough if the rich and powerful fail to behave with respect, honesty, and compassion toward the rest of society and toward the world."

Jeffrey Sachs

Shanghai is emerging as the new center of the gold trading world, as the price shenanigans of London and New York discredit their exchanges, and accelerate the flow of gold from west to east.

The volumes on the LBMA and the COMEX are larger but misleading, because for the most part they represent the passing around of paper claims, at a leverage of 50 to 1 or more, against a diminishing pile of actual gold bullion.   They are now running on custom and momentum, but losing substance and confidence with every passing day.

This is the direct result of not allowing the market to set the price, and the moral hazard of not restraining overly cynical, if not overtly fraudulent, representations of value and risk. 

The market operation that took down the price of gold which we saw earlier this year on the COMEX was so blatant, so heavy handed, so patently obvious that it jarred the world markets, and had the opposite effect to which one might presume it was intended.  It was a bureaucratic over-reaction, panic more precisely, to the Bundesbank's request for the return of their national gold.

If the Anglo-Americans did not use this opportunity to secure the return of the gold bullion which had been leased out, it was a strategic blunder of epic proportion. It may be viewed in retrospect as the watershed moment in which London and New York squandered away the confidence of the world.  In their cynical and amoral self-delusion, and a contempt for other people, they assumed that maintaining public confidence is a function of being bolder and more skillful liars. Nicely played, gentlemen.

Integrity is the prerequisite for confidence, and bad behavior drives out the good.  A loss of confidence after repeated abuse is a genuine risk whether one properly accounts for it or not.

Weighed, and found wanting.



The original article from which this chart has been taken can be found here.


Who Is Interested in the Price of Gold Today?


Someone who has seen the writing on the wall, and wonders...

A lunchtime vignette at Le Café.


COMEX Eligible Gold Is Holding At Record Low Levels Even At These Higher Prices


"It is not in human nature to deceive others for any long time, without in a measure deceiving ourselves also."

John Henry Newman

The bullion banks are struggling through this August delivery period, and the end next week is in sight.

But who will provide the gold to get the Banks through the important October delivery period?  And then December? Winter is coming.   

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.





"The Most High God gave your father Nebuchadnezzar sovereignty and greatness, and glory and splendour.   Because of the high position he gave him, all the nations and peoples of every language dreaded and feared him. Those the king wanted to put to death, he put to death; those he wanted to spare, he spared; those he wanted to promote, he promoted; and those he wanted to humble, he humbled.

But when his heart became arrogant and hardened with pride, he was deposed from his royal throne and stripped of his glory. He was driven away from people and given the mind of an animal; he lived with the wild donkeys and ate grass like the ox; and his body was drenched with the dew of heaven, until he acknowledged that the Most High God is sovereign over all kingdoms on earth and sets over them anyone he wishes.

But you, Belshazzar, his heir, have not humbled yourself, though you knew all this. Instead, you have set yourself up against the Lord of heaven. You had the riches of His temple brought to you, and you and your nobles, your wives and your concubines, despoiled them.

You worshipped the gods of money and power, which cannot see or hear or understand. But you did not honour the God who holds in his hand your life and all your ways. Therefore He sends the hand that wrote this inscription on your wall."

Daniel 5:18-24