25 September 2013

CFTC Drops Probe of Silver Manipulation Takes No Action - Credibility Trap


I cannot say that I am surprised, since it was the safer thing to do, career-wise.  Pleading ignorance is the last refuge of the craven, be they bureaucrats or CEO's.

One might safely have little confidence in regulatory action in the US or the UK unless it is provoked by an unavoidable whistleblower or a noticeable financial crisis.   Or a divergence of interest among white collar crime families.

Although he made a show of action now and then, Gary Gensler is political, and fully a creature of the system.  The Republican members of the CFTC are 'free marketeers' who have generally impeded regulation of Big Money at almost every turn. 

Principles are not a career enhancing option in times of general cynicism and deceit.  

In fairness to the CFTC,  the credibility trap is far-reaching.  This is not a problem of a 'few bad eggs,' but a system that is largely given over to the corruption of the monied interests from what I have seen and read.  Mark Leibovich provides the colour commentary to the state of affairs in his recent book, This Town.

The manipulation of markets seems to be a fairly regular and long-standing occurrence.  But it is nice to at least have their decision on the record. 

Manipulation is no free lunch, and there are always consequences.  And they are usually not confined to one or two asset classes of wealth, but to a growing circle of abuse with much broader effects. I think Martin Niemöller had some insightful words on the subject.

Change will come, but apparently not yet.

Reuters
U.S. CFTC ends probe of silver markets, takes no action

(Reuters) - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Wednesday it has closed its long-running investigation into complaints about manipulation in the silver markets, and is not recommending any charges.

The CFTC publicly confirmed the probe in September 2008. At the time, the agency had received complaints about whether the silver futures contracts traded on the Commodity Exchange Inc (COMEX) were being manipulated.

"Based upon the law and evidence as they exist at this time, there is not a viable basis to bring an enforcement action with respect to any firm or its employees related to our investigation of silver markets," the CFTC said in a statement on Wednesday.

Silver has featured prominently in modern commodity market scandals. In the most memorable case, the Hunt brothers of Texas hoarded the precious metal, aiming to corner the market and control global prices starting in the late 1970s...

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NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The gold/silver price relationship is back to a rather high level by historical standards at a ratio of 60.




24 September 2013

Fives Tonnes of Customer Gold Leave the HSBC Vault


On Monday 173,582 ounces, or roughly five tonnes, of customer gold was withdrawn the HSBC warehouse.

This takes the total gold in all of the COMEX warehouses to a new low of 6,860,160 ounces in 100 oz. bars.

The portion of this that is deliverable or 'dealer gold' remains at 672,000 ounces.

While this is adequate for the non-active delivery month of September, these are slim numbers for the upcoming active delivery month of October, and hardly appropriate for the contracts that are held through December, at least at these prices.

I will include additional charts as appropriate later on this evening.

These inventory figures indicate that option expiration shenanigans aside, higher prices will be required to move more gold into the dealer category and clear the markets at the COMEX.  The blatant price manipulation in paper has led to a tough situation for the banking cartel which seems to be at the apogee of their power, despite a prominent role in the financial crisis of only five years ago.
"When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it--always."

Mohandas K. Gandhi
Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.



Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Quiet Option Expiration with a Few Hijinks


Markets are a bit shaky ahead of the US budget ceiling showdown. Senator Ted Cruz' filibuster will be called by procedure tomorrow, the Senate will strip out the Obamacare defunding language, and will toss it back to Boehner in the House who will have 24 hours to take whatever action he may.

They took gold and silver down overnight, and played their reindeer games in the day trade, with the metals snapping back up for slight gains in the after hours Globex session.

I will take a look at COMEX inventories this evening as we toddle on to the close of September this week.

This will not end well. It never does.