29 January 2014

Renewed Calls From China For a Global Super-Currency To Replace "Bretton Woods II"


They are talking about a 'super-currency' for international trade, and not to replace any currencies for domestic use.

I have been reporting on this for quite a few years. It is a movement whose time has come as the US dollar reserve currency falters, and the Fed expands the monetary base for domestic concerns. 

You can click on either of the subject headings at the bottom of this blog entry, and all of the past postings with those subjects will be selected for your reading.

The major countries will no longer tolerate the monetary manipulation with the global currency in the same unilateral manner with which Nixon changed the Bretton Woods agreement back in 1971 by ending dollar convertibility to gold, rather than devaluing against it.

For lack of a better alternative or term, I settled on the SDR, made up of a new basket of currencies and commodities, almost certainly including gold, and quite possible silver, if China, Russia, et al. have their way.

Right now the nations are in the 'negotiation stage,' with the Anglo-American banking cartel putting up a strong resistance for any changes to their 'exorbitant privilege.'  I would not be surprised to see more forex and precious metal games played as the Lords of Finance flex their monetary muscles.

And then there is the question of the tangled web of rehypothecation of bullion without public disclosure.  It could prove to be very embarrassing to some.

But change is coming, one way or another.

China Daily
Replace dollar with super currency
By Michael Barris in New York,
Fu Jing in Brussels and
Chen Jia in Beijing
2014-01-29 09:04

The World Bank's former chief economist wants to replace the US dollar with a single global super-currency, saying it will create a more stable global financial system.

"The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises," Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel, a Brussels-based policy-research think tank. "The solution to this is to replace the national currency with a global currency."

Lin, now a professor at Peking University and a leading adviser to the Chinese government, said expanding the basket of major reserve currencies — the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and pound sterling — will not address the consequences of a financial crisis.

Internationalizing the Chinese currency is not the answer, either, he said.

Lin urged the international community, especially the US and European Union, to play a leading role in currency and infrastructure initiatives. To boost the global economy, he proposed the launch of a "global infrastructure initiative" to remove development bottlenecks in poor and developing countries, a measure he said would also offer opportunities for advanced economies.

"China can only play a supporting role in realizing the plans," Lin said. "The urgent thing is for the US and Europe to endorse these plans. And I think the G20 is an ideal platform to discuss the ideas," he said, referring to the group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 major economies.

The concept of a global "super currency" tied to a basket of currencies has been periodically discussed by world leaders as well as endorsed by 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz. A super currency could also be tied to a single currency, but the interconnectedness of world financial markets and concerns about the volatility that can occur as a result of the system being tied to one currency have made this idea less popular...

Arguments in favor of a global currency resurfaced during October's US budget impasse, which forced the government to shut down.

"It is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world," a Xinhua News Agency commentary said on Oct 14. The piece argued that creating a new international reserve currency to replace reliance on the greenback, would prevent government gridlock in Washington from affecting the rest of the world.

In March 2009, China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, called for the creation of a new "super-sovereign reserve currency" to replace the dollar. In a paper published on the People's Bank of China's website, Zhou said an international reserve currency "disconnected from individual nations" and "able to remain stable in the long run" would benefit the global financial system more than current reliance on the dollar.

On that note, David Bloom, global head of FX research at HSBC, said US monetary policy change "will bring fluctuations for emerging countries' currencies and lead to financial instability".

Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a government think-tank, said, "A supranational currency may be a new direction for development of the global financial system. It also requires different countries to cooperate in coordinating macroeconomic policies..."





Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bounce on FOMC Day - 2014 Comex Options Calendar


Gold caught a bid today, largely driven I think by the exceptional weakness in the emerging market currencies and sustained buying of physical in Asia and the Mideast.

Silver lagged gold once again, which gives some credence to the 'flight to safety' idea.

The miners caught a serious bid which was a nice change of pace. It was interesting to see a news item that some ex-JPM bankers have raised $375 million to make some investments in the mining sector.   Cheat 'em, beat 'em, and eat 'em.  You keep what you kill is the creed of the Economic Hitmen.  

There is quite significant overhead resistance to gold both in terms of the downtrend and the 100 day moving average.

I am sorry that I failed to mention the February gold options expiration this week.   I have included the calendar for the rest of the year below.

The Comex warehouses saw no movement of gold bullion in or out.

Have a pleasant evening.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Emerging Markets Give Wall St the Shimmy Shakes - The Recovery™


“We plan more leisure for men and women and better opportunities for its enjoyment. We plan not only to provide for all the new generation, but we shall, by scientific research and invention, lift the standard of living and security of diffusion of wealth, a decrease in poverty and a great reduction in crime. And this plan will be carried out if we just keep on giving the American people a chance.”

Herbert Hoover, 15 June 1931

“The depression has been deepened by events from abroad which are beyond the control either of our citizens or our government.”

Herbert Hoover, 18 October 1931

Stocks gave up most of yesterday's big bounce largely based on jitters in the emerging markets reflected quite well in their currencies.

Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania reiterated this Dow 18,000 target today on Bloomberg TV.  What a surprise.

So why the sell off? Is this a taper tantrum as some have speculated? I think not. The FOMC did exactly what was expected of it today, and it is stressing that it will not be deterred from easy money policies in the foreseeable future.

Facebook beat revenues after the close with $2.58B versus $2.35B expected. I wonder if those numbers are ex-NSA.

The reasons stocks are selling off is because, despite official numbers and reassurances, The Recovery™ is humming along like it's 1931.  

Without increases in median disposable income there will be no sustainable recovery, despite the concerns about the growing 'wage-price spiral' from some corporatist economists. 

Have a pleasant evening.





FOMC Statement 29 January 2014


This was Ben Bernanke's last meeting of the FOMC. Notice that this time the statement was approved unanimously.

Even as it promises easy monetary policy as far as the eye can see, it also provides an historical 'fig leaf' for Bernanke's legacy.  They will say that he expanded the Fed's Balance Sheet as required, even to the extent of engaging in non-traditional practices such as buying mortgage and long Term Treasury debt, AND he had started the process of 'tapering' ongoing the purchase programs before he left the chairmanship.

My own personal opinion is that history will not be kind to either Greenspan or Bernanke and their trickle down approach to monetary policy, weak regulatory environment, and The Recovery.  Future economists will look on them and the Obama Administration with kindly condescension, much as they look at the tragedy that was the Herbert Hoover presidency, even while they continue to propagate different, but similar, policy errors with great gravity and self-confidence.

Press Release
Federal Reserve Press Release
Release Date: January 29, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.

In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (PDF)