Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - No My Jobs, Man

"I don't know if the people on Wall Street are not really getting out and seeing what's really going on.

When you go to small towns, like I do, and talk to people - people don't have much confidence in the numbers you hear."

Ronnie Squires, Winner of CNBC's Guess the Jobs Number Contest

The Non-Farm Payrolls number sucked out loud with a fairly stupendous miss.  If you back out the imaginary jobs from the Birth Death report, the economy added about 40,000 real jobs, of a generally low quality.  Chief Strategists and economists took delight in the tenth of a percent decrease in unemployment, a generally misleading statistic.  And of course, stocks rallied.

Given the need for the central banks to keep printing money, and the ECB's endorsement of that approach, the hit on the metals this week makes quite a bit of sense from a perception management standpoint of the porcine persuasion.

Here is my most probable forecast for the future. Be sure to make a note of it.

The next time there is a financial crisis, which is likely to be in the not too distant future, almost to a person the economists and talking heads of the status quo will express shock and bewilderment saying, 'who could have seen this coming?'  Unless of course there is some foreign scapegoat who can be conveniently blamed for the collapse of a house of cards.

And then, from their Olympian heights of privilege, the overpaid pundits will quickly fall back into their most comfortable, ideologically blind slogans. There is too much government, or there is not enough stimulus or the unfortunate many are just lazy and stupid.

And meanwhile, given the lack of reform of the financial and political system, the average American family, which they will all claim to uphold and revere, is being led down a blind alley of officially tolerated corruption, and strangled.

Alibaba was announced after the bell.  See the stock posting for commentary about that and its likely influence on the markets.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - BABA - Here Comes the Big Daddy IPO of All Time

"A fire broke out backstage in a theatre. The clown came out to warn the public; they thought it was a joke and applauded. He repeated it; the acclaim was even greater.

I think that's just how the world will come to an end: to general applause from those who believe it's just a joke.”

Søren Kierkegaard

The hills are alive, with the sounds of music.....

Alibaba announced that it will kick off its IPO in New York City on Monday, September 8.  Represent!

The company is considered an advertising company performing a middleman function more similar to eBay than Amazon in the ecommerce space in China. 

The IPO will value the company at a mind-boggling 162.7 Billion dollars.  That is about 60 to 66 dollars per share.  The stock symbol will be BABA.   Big Daddy!

 

It is a real company with real revenues and profits.  It's competitive longevity and growth prospects being worth a few hundred billion, or not, is the question.  The company does not have a buying and delivery infrastructure like Amazon or Walmart.

Yahoo will own a 16.3% share of the company after the IPO.  Given their own business performance they might do well to sell the shares and invest the proceeds--  in Treasuries.

Players will be able to buy just a portion of the company, however, about 21 billions worth.  About 20 percent is slated for retail.  Start begging your broker now.

Goldman will have the job of batting cleanup, making sure that the IPO goes well after it begins trading.  This includes stabilizing the price and order flow, by buying and selling shares.  Mr. Fixit is on the job.

Morgan Stanley is leading the 'friends and family' stock allocations.  Deja vu!  Is that the Friends of Frank Quattrone?

New York is getting the IPO rather than Hong Kong because the Yanks are allowing Alibaba to maintain its current management structure whereas Hong Kong leaned towards voting shares, allowing Jack Ma to maintain a more private control.

There is a lot of juice behind this one, people.  Barring any exogenous incident, there are a lot of VSPs (Very Serious People) with a vested interest in a calm market between now and the actual IPO date. There will be more professional, highly skilled beauticians slapping lipstick and makeup on this IPO than there are on the recent troubles in the Ukraine.

And I like it when you Call Me Big Papa.  Throw your hands in the air, if you a true player, try to snag some pre-IPO share.  Here comes what might be a notorious P.I.G.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Moyers: Fighting Back Against the Wall Street Giants

One has to be concerned that America's first female president will be as great a disappointment and failure as America's first African-American president.

Unlike Obama or Hillary, I think Elizabeth Warren may be the real progressive deal. She has political street smarts and leadership skills that make her more than just a hectoring voice from the sidelines.

Yes, she has some concerning views on the foreign policy front that grate on liberals. And yes, when you listen to her, she is no doubt a politician, and remarkably partisan, excusing the sins of her own party and railing against those of the opposition.  And Moyers calls her on it, beautifully. 

But, unlike Obama before he became President (and some might say after), on the whole she has actually accomplished some things for Main Street, and against terrible opposition. And unlike Barry and the Clintons she did it without selling out to Wall Street money. 

Perhaps she has a miraculous cattle trade in her past that we do not know about. If there is anything shaky in her past, it will certainly be used against her in a politically motivated hit as was done on Eliot Spitzer when he crossed the vested interests.  Or just a big media smear campaign, like Ross Perot and Howard Dean.

I doubt that she can run successfully however. The moneyed interests will never vet her, and it is impossible to run for high office from either party without their approval. 

The 'bullet or the bribe' is a powerful disincentive for political change.  And if any progressive agent for change ever does run, and is elected, they will not be able to stand up for change alone, unless the people stir themselves and show some serious support for reform.  At least as much concern as they are willing to show for nude selfies of movie stars, and the latest twists and turns of staged reality shows.

I am hopeful, but not optimistic.  And this interview does not make me moreso.  There seems to be little that Washington cannot spoil with its taint.  This is the age of the narcissist and sociopath. I think the hardships will increase dramatically before adversity makes human beings of us once again.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non Farm Payrolls, Mario Chill Metals, Grand Malfeasance

"Just as in previous boom-bust cycles, the seeds of destruction are sewn in the illusion of trend masquerading as truth, with momentum seeming to validate a widening gap between perception and economic reality. And just as in past cycles, the manager who doesn’t subscribe to the new rules, who goes against the grain of convention is viewed as out of touch or left behind.

Since the beginning of our fund’s drawdown in early 2012, a Bloomberg index of the “Worst Balance Sheet” companies of the S&P500 has returned to-date over +30% on an annualized basis. An MSCI index of the “Most-Shorted” companies of the Russell 3000—a proxy for the visibility of bad valuations, bad managements, and bad fundamentals—has also returned over +30% annualized. These perversions are even more pronounced within EMs, exacerbated by record fund outflows in the first half of 2014, exceeding even those of the 2008 crisis.

This dash for trash puts to shame even the speculative excesses of the dot.com era. This is a circus market rigged by HFT and other algorithmic traders who prey on the rational behavior of warm-blooded investors. They only serve to further undermine the integrity of public markets, which will ultimately bring about their rationalization.

Andrew Cunagin, Rinehart Capital Partners LLC founder

 

The Federal Reserve and the other public regulators are culpable for the carnival atmosphere in the US markets, in addition to the visceral and cynical pandering to greed which is the hallmark of the present day political class.  At some point, someone must have the courage to stand, even if it is against the tide, for the rule of law. 

 

These officials have taken the duties of their office and sworn to it, and thereby own the stewardship.  They have systematically set the boundaries for the vital price discovery process of public markets, the protection of wealth,  and of economic governance in order to favor a powerful few at the expense of their own obligations.  

 

They cynically attempt to hide their malfeasance with a feigned ignorance and obfuscation.  They pride themselves on their ability to deceive, to use words as a weapon against those that they are obliged to protect.  They excuse their behavior by saying, 'we did not know' or 'you did not do enough to stop us.'  By their example they sow the seeds of disorder and destruction.

 

Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

 

Today the ECB's Draghi pledged to buy assets and cut rates.

 

The Fed's Kocherlakota says that 'Interest Rates Are Too High.'

Precious metals fell in price in a ham-handed attempt at perception management.

This is what happened. Make what you will of it.

Have a pleasant evening.