13 August 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Whiling Away the Stabilization Phase of the Markets


"...further, the distinction between military and commercial space systems – combatants and noncombatants – will become blurred.  Information systems will become an important focus of attack, particularly for U.S. enemies seeking to short-circuit sophisticated American forces. And advanced forms of biological warfare that can 'target' specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.

This is merely a glimpse of the possibilities inherent in the process of transformation, not a precise prediction. Whatever the shape and direction of this revolution in military affairs, the implications for continued American military preeminence will be profound.

...the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor. "

The Project For a New American Century, Rebuilding America's Defenses

The Project For a New American Century was a think tank founded in 1997 by Robert Kagan and William Kristol, with John Bolton, Bruce Jackson, and Devon Gaffney Cross as Directors.  Robert Kagan is the husband of Victoria Nuland.  PNAC was replaced in 2006 by the 'Foreign Policy Initiative' which was also founded by Kristol and Kagan.

In addition to promoting 'neo-conservative' policies within the Clinton, Bush, and Obama Administrations, the organization issued a major position paper called Rebuilding America's Defenses which you may read about here.

PNAC was a leading proponent for regime change and the wars in Iraq, etc.  Here is a list of the original signatories although there is no evidence that they specifically approved of this position paper.  There is a list of contributors on the last page of the paper itself.

A 'genotype' refers to a person's genetic (racial) characteristics (heritage) as well as any specific genetically related disorders such as Down Syndrome,  muscular dystrophy, etc.

The US equity markets were in a 'stabilization phase today, after the big push to get the major indices up off support yesterday, resulting in a remarkable rally.

China continued to devalue the yuan last night for the third time, but by a lesser amount.  They also held a press conference to try and smooth out any panic from the markets.

Have a pleasant evening.








12 August 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Weighed, and Found Wanting


"Caution in handling 'generally accepted opinions' that claim to explain whole trends of history is especially important for the historian of modern times, because the last century has produced an abundance of ideologies that pretend to be keys to history but are actually nothing but desperate efforts to escape responsibility.”

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism

Gold and silver had a minor rally today, that was long overdue given the protracted period of calculated selling that marked the last few weeks at least.

There was intraday commentary about Net Asset Values and the extreme we reached in negative sentiment on the metals driven to a large extent by Wall Street's windtalkers here.

My commentary from last night about the currency war and what I call 'peak junk' is worth reading carefully, and if you have not done so you might take a second look at it here.

I am pleased that with these more overt actions by China that 'the currency war' is penetrating the consciousness of more people, even if they only see it as a short term event.

This is the kind of change that is seen only once in a generation or so, thank God.  It is certainly nothing new if you are familiar with history in more than the comic book versions so often taught in schools.

And it will continue to play out slowly, probably for the remainder of this decade and a good part of the next.

The lack of reform in the financial system and the systematic gaming of public policy on behalf of the one percent and multinational corporations has, after a long period of stagnant wages and predatory usury, stripped the broader public of disposable income.

Low paying, part time service jobs are no fuel for a sustainable recovery, especially when it is clear that the gains from massive amounts of monetary stimulus and debt are flowing into the hands of a greedy few, the same hands that brought the economy low in the first place through their shameless deceptions.

Buying goods without income, money or affordable credit, if you will forgive the analogy, is like expecting people to make bricks without straw.

This is not a difficult concept to grasp.   Look where all the money is, and where it is not, and then perhaps you will understand why things cannot continue on like this.  And history has many examples of how this sort of thing might end.

But how can you quit when you are winning?

Exciting times are yet to come for the exceptional.

Maybe the popular music will get better.

Have a pleasant evening.












SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Pneumatic Market


US equity markets were in a swoon as China devalued their currency again last night, and suggested that an ultimate target of 10% might be the thing to do.

Most of the commentary is just hapless and directionless.

China's export strategy is failing, so they are trying to do other things.

And why is it failing? Because their customers (guess who) are flat broke.   Oh, we don't talk about that sort of thing.  Or why it might be happening.

At least a few people have at last discovered the currency war, in its ninth year of slow simmering, and not so far behind the scenes if you will open your eyes to it.

These big changes in the dynamics of the world's economies happen very slowly over time, but then appear on the scene as if all in a rush, out of nowhere.

Not one thing has changed. The big macro trend continues to play out, no matter what market manipulations may be undertaken by the Chinese, or the Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Fed.

The times, they are a changing.

The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.

Have a pleasant evening.







NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - The Windtalkers


There are 'no fundamentals.'  Everything is just what we say it is, so buy our overpriced paper at a higher price than we recently paid for it.  And no 'pet rocks.'  Ah, the assorted wisdom of the grifters.

Yowza yowzer, get yer hot stocks and nekkid ladies.

I hope you don't allow this sort of nonsense to affect your longer term investment decisions about anything.

As for trading short term, that is a carny game.  Go there at your own risk.

For some reason the Street's windtalkers have an uncanny way of cheerleading the 'small investor' into the latest trend tops, and bottoms, and right into the maw of the big trading desks.

What a striking coincidence.

They do not know the next big market trends with certainty anymore than you or I do, but they know how game the system and skin the rubes in the short term.  And they do.  Day in, and day out.

Financial manipulation is the friction that keeps the real economy from recovering.

A little more gold was redeemed out of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust since the last time I updated this chart.

I see from the CME clearing reports that Goldman and HSBC continue to add gold to their 'house accounts' even as the small specs had taken their largest short against gold on record as I recall.

These yuan devaluations may spark more interest in Asia in physical gold and silver as safe havens against currency depreciation, and as an alternative to paper asset bubbles in dodgy new era stocks and junk bonds.

So let's see if the metals can finally break out of this bear market grip.