“We have been called to heal wounds, to unite what has fallen apart, and to bring home those who have lost their way. Blessed are they who love their brothers and sisters as much when they are sick, as when they are well and of service. And blessed are they who love their brothers and sisters as well when they are far away, as when they are close. When you leave this earth, you can take nothing that you have received, but only what you have given.” Francis of Assisi
April was a dull month for the silver bulls, with gold dominating the Comex contract deliveries.
And now that we are into the May contract delivery period, the shoe is definitely on the other foot.
The May silver contract showed 3,915,000 ounces delivered on the first day for May at the price of 17.55.
The big seller was the house account from the vampire squid, Goldman Sachs. And the biggest buyers were the tag team of the house account at JPM, and their mystery customer who keeps taking delivery after delivery of bullion.
The next big contract month for gold is in June. Of course with the shift of trading from NY and London to Asia, one has to wonder how much that may really matter.
Silver is back on track. Let's get ready to rumble.
Gold and silver got some legs today, following through in a reasonably well-behaved manner to the upside in this current trend channel, which can be easily seen on the chart.
It is challenging its old nemesis, the overhead resistance at 1270 which has been capping rallies for several weeks. I suspect gold will be breaking out to the upside once it can clear that resistance, and take a crack at running up to the top of the trend channel which is around 1310-1320 about the place where I think gold may meet it.
The cup and handle is looking good, but will not activate until we break out and stick a close through the top of this trend channel which nicely defines what is a slanted cup.
Last night I took a look at a different chart for gold that indicates that if the cup and handle does activate, it will reach its next big battle around the 1550 level, which is the lower bound of the trend channel that it had been in prior to the breakdown in price and the bear market which seems to be near ending.
Gold and silver are manipulated markets, being traded as currencies and abstractions, especially with regard to gold. As you know I am expecting the pressures on the 'gold float' to assert their dominance over the highly leveraged paper markets at some time around midyear, maybe with the June contract.
However, forecasting markets that are rigged by determined financial engineering with a relatively free hand to do naughty and perhaps even foolish things is difficult. So we ought to be prepared for a broader range of the usual outcomes from charts like these.
The buck went down today, most likely on the weaker than expected GDP estimate, and the likelihood that any Fed rate hikes will be short lived indeed.
Silver is not the leader at this point, as that role is being fulfilled by gold. I don't think that says anything about a precious metals bull market. It seems to indicate that this rally is being driven by more monetary issues particular to gold, and the structure of the physical gold market, than a general inflationary move in commodities.
You can see this if you chart up the ratios of gold to various commodities and metals with a commodity component like platinum, silver, and the CRB itself. Yes at some point that may correct, but right now gold seems to be leading, and I think there are good reasons for it that are more secular to gold and the structure to its bullion demand.
People who say that supply and demand do not apply to gold because of the big store of it above ground are making the mistake of neglecting price. And that is a big mistake. Just because gold is in a vault does not mean it is for sale at whatever price the wiseguys may choose to set for it. This does not mean that their metrics are wrong. Rather, the market is multidimensional, and in their mocking of other measures they set themselves up for the very narrow viewpoint that they deride.
So, all in all, it was a good day for the precious metals and miners. Let's see if we can build on that.
Mary was released from hospital today, and is now in a rehabilitation facility out further in 'the country' where we live which is nice. I expect she will be in there for some time but visitation is easy. Her speech is improving rapidly but she has no conscious control of her right arm or leg.
We had a bit of a shocker yesterday from the unexpected death of my father-in-law back in Ohio. That is why I said I was not sure how I might be posting. He simply died of old age, peacefully with his children at his bedside after falling ill in the morning. He was a carpenter, a veteran of the Army Air Corp during WWII in Europe, an avid golfer, of Pennsylvania Dutch (Mennonite) heritage, a simple, honourable man.
Stocks were wobbly most of the day, as they have been most of this week, and finally slid off lower into the afternoon after the European close.
The economic news is poor, and the quality of the earnings reports coming in is weak, with earnings at times but not revenue, which is quite often an indicator of creative accounting moreso than growth and strength.
As you probably have heard the GDP estimate has come in weakly. No surprise there.
We will be looking rather hard at the support levels just under the major stock indices here. If they keep this weakness, with low volumes and price propping into the close, then I think it may not take much to get stocks rolling over with some conviction to the downside.
The Fed is blowing monetary policy in a big way. And the government is not doing much better. Both seem focused on taking care of the wealthiest few and the financial system. And this is not a prescription for a sustainable recovery.
If and when gold breaks out of this cup and handle formation, which is a matter of probability and not certainty, the next real battleground in a new bull market will be around $1550. One of the more interesting variables will be the manner of any breakout, and the 'time' it takes to reach a minimum measuring objective.
This is quite appropriate as 1550 marks the major support level for the channel in which gold had been moving prior to the recent bear market.
A successful cup and handle formation, should this occur, would mark a bottom for gold and quite possibly a resumption of another leg of the bull market.
It will be interesting to see how the future movement of gold as a cross to the US dollar may unfold. If the money masters were wise, they would permit it to rise back into the old trend channel and seek to find a balance in the wagers with the available physical supply.
However, wisdom so often being overlooked by power and overwhelmed by it, we may have to consider that a 'break' in the market may precipitate this activation of the cup and handle and therefore the next move higher, and a challenge to 1550 that completes rather more quickly then might otherwise happen.
In seeking to extend control and overreaching, people sometimes bring about the very circumstance that guided the fear that led to their overconfidence and misjudgment.
O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!
Walter Scott, Marmion
And this is what continues to muddy the waters in too many markets these days. That there has been and continues to be manipulation of prices of too many important benchmarks and assets is no longer a serious question for open minds. There are still too many minds that remain stubbornly, or wilfully, closed to the necessity for reform. It is not the original offense but the overreach and coverup that knocks holes in the edifice of established power.
Rather, what remains puzzling are the details: the extent of it, the actual players who are involved besides the usual suspects, and of course, any motivations that may exist then the mere greed for illicit and outsized trading profits.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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