01 November 2016

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Risk Off


Today was a 'risk off' day for whatever reasons one wishes to cite.

But it was a risk averse day. Take a look at the VIX.

It could be the uncertainty of the FOMC meeting and the Non-Farm Payrolls number coming out.

But it could also be Donald Trump's rise in the polling to have an even to slight edge chance against Hillary in the 'popular vote.'

So, as I said, the punters were pulling in their lines a bit, although stocks certainly came off the afternoon lows.

Have a pleasant evening.



31 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - All Tricks and No Treats


I heard an interesting data point today from the public pollsters, that those who are very confident and comfortable in how things are going now are flocking to Hillary, while those who are very uncomfortable and lacking in confidence about the system as it is are flocking to Trump.

These are the two extremes. The broad middle seems to be struggling with a choice while they hold their noses, because the disapproval ratings of both candidates are historically high.

What this tends to imply is a great deal of dissatisfaction with either outcome, no matter who wins the election next week.

The dollar tried to rally today but faded into the close, along with stocks.

Gold and silver went out on their highs for the day, pushed up against near term overhead resistance.

We are now into the November delivery reporting for the Comex, which is really just the accounting for IOUs since little gold is actually delivered as can be seen from the actual warehouse report.

But at least silver should start showing a bit more 'spark' now.

Three central Banks, the US, the UK, and Japan, will pause from contemplating their navels and say/do something this week with regard to key interest rates.

I strongly doubt that the US will do anything because of the imminent presidential election.

Valeant Pharmaceutical is under criminal investigation for accounting fraud we hear today.  I would call it a good start, with quite a few more dodgy corporate crime families to go.

The World Series moves to Cleveland tomorrow, with hope springing eternal, or at least a reasonable approximation of it, in the long-suffering fans of both clubs.

Gold and silver are facing a real test this week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls and the FOMC.  Let's see how we come out of it.

Happy Halloween.

Have a pleasant evening.








SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Banks and Criminal Culture and the Intersection Thereof


Stocks were weak today despite some attempts to rally them up.

The overhang of three major central bank meetings this week and the US Non-Farms Payroll had the punters sitting on the sidelines.

OPEC failed to agree on production cuts, so the price of oil slumped a bit today as well.

Two Ex-execs of Valeant Pharmaceuticals are being probed for fraud. I believe the stock has lost something like 80+% of its value since Bill Ackman pledged his fund's money to it.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

Have a pleasant evening.

28 October 2016

Just Charts Into the Weekend - FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week


I consider today's GDP number a particularly generous pre-election pump for Hillary.

The New York Fed's 4Q estimated is 1.4%.

Next week is the FOMC rate decision and on Friday the October Non-Farm Payrolls.

The delivery reports were quiet, with Macquare disgorging another chunk of their gold long position.

Someone took another 450,000+ ounces of gold out of Brink's Hong Kong.

Have a pleasant weekend.