Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Truth or Consequences - FOMC and the Option Expiration

“Happy, happy Christmas, that can win us back to the delusions of our childish days; that can recall to the old man the pleasures of his youth; that can transport the sailor and the traveler, thousands of miles away, back to his own fire-side and his quiet home!

I will honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year.”

Charles Dickens


"Let the children have their night of fun and laughter.   Let the gifts of Father Christmas delight their play.   Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted pleasures before we turn again to the stern task and the formidable years that lie before us, resolved that, by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world.   And so, in God’s mercy, a happy Christmas to you all."

Winston Churchill, December 1941

Stocks attempted to rally today, and once again flopped into the close, although they managed to finish off their lows and nearly unchanged.

Gold caught a bid in a clear flight to safety, if but a bit subdued.  Silver and the Dollar moved sideways.

The FOMC meeting tomorrow may be pivotal for the markets, at least for a little while.

The Fed is almost universally expected to raise rates a last 25 bp for the year.   And I fully believe that they will, or otherwise shock the markets.

It is what they say and indicate about next year that is important.   They are strong whispers that they will signal a more cautious, data-focused approached towards raising rates, with dovish overtones.

They might have done so more strongly, but the Big Tweet had to threaten them, which makes their task all the more complicated, as they cannot be seen to be giving in to bullying, or lose what little credibility they have remains.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday.

If the wiseguys want to rig a Santa rally, the end of this week is as likely a time as we will see all things considered.  It would help to know in detail the short interest and amount of puts held, and volumes in the bearish ETFs.  That provides fodder for a proper jam-job.

Here is an article about Emergency Room Bills.   The US healthcare systems is disgraceful, blinded by greed to the point of insanity, emboldened by corruption and the abuses of big money.   It shames and sickens the decent  And yet we are proud of it, cling to it proudly, as we do our financial system.

But regardless, there will continue to be abuses, until we make them stop.  They will not stop of themselves.   And there will be consequences.

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And the Horse You Rode In On - Purposeful Risks

“Corrupt citizens breed corrupt rulers, and it is the mob who finally decides when virtue shall die.”

Taylor Caldwell, Dear and Glorious Physician


"The world is a comedy to those that think; a tragedy to those that feel — a solution of why Democritus laughed and Heraclitus wept."

Horace Walpole, Letter to Horace Mann


"I am not alone at all, I thought.  I was never alone at all.  And that, of course, is the message of Christmas.  We are never alone.  Not when the night is darkest, the wind coldest, the world seemingly most indifferent.  For this is still the time God chooses."

Taylor Caldwell, My Christmas Miracle

Stocks were slumping again today, in the true sense of the word.

All over America, financial advisors are telling mom and pop, 'stay fully invested.  You have no other choice, you have no where else to go.'  This is the end all and be all of their objective 'advice.'

With their savings at risk, and their real wages stagnant, it is getting increasingly difficult for the broad public to sustain the kind of buying that supports a consumer driven economy.   And the US has failed to create enough client states and colonies to buy their products, although they are more than willing to build them.

And the professional and ruling class cannot bring themselves to understand why the prosperity which they are enjoying is not leading to a resurgent economy and a happy and thriving public.  Instead there is a growing discontent and mistrust, which is blamed on foreign interference.

Lies have consequences. 

There is no urgency or high volumes in this selling.  It is just the unloading by smart money out of the latest bubble that they and their associates have created for their own narrow benefits.

Gold and silver caught a bid. The Dollar was weaker.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday. This may be the catalyst for a kind of 'Santa Claus rally'

Starość nie radość —  old age is no joke.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - US Debt 'Riskier' than Chinese Debt - FOMC and Stock Option Expiration

"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God.  Thereafter, any attack even on the least of men is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. 

Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer


“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him.  We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now.  We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

And yet the ever-blessed Spirit of God is here, ten times more glorious, more powerful than when He trod the earth in our flesh."

John Henry Newman


“To escape the pain caused by regret for the past or fear about the future, this is the rule to follow: leave the past to the infinite mercy of God, the future to His good Providence, and give the present wholly to His love by being faithful to His grace.”

Jean-Pierre de Caussade, Abandonment to Divine Providence

Stocks made yet another morning rally attempt.

But as it has so often been doing, it faded in late morning, and a slide began that ended up going out on the lows.

The spokesmodels fearfully wonder why the puppies are not eating their puppy chow.

This is not constructive action for any kind of market reversal.

Next week we will have an FOMC meeting. The Fed is almost universally expected to raise rates by 25 bp. The key factor will be the language they employ about the outlook for next year.

Some bullishness may be provoked by the way in which the Fed positions their interest rate stance for next year, whether it is substantial or not.

There will be the December stock option expiration on Friday.

This sets up the stage for a sharp relief or rebound rally IF the Trump-Trade-Brexit-Riots factors are at least benign, or ideally more optimistic.

And in another impressive feat and MAGA moment, for the first time in history, US 1Yr Treasuries are market priced as riskier than similar Chinese sovereign debt.

"Here’s another reason Donald Trump is “not at all happy with the Fed” and will continue to be frustrated by the world’s No. 2 economy. He is the first president to suffer the new normal of China becoming more creditworthy than the U.S. That’s right: America now pays more to borrow money than China does."

I would not necessarily lay all of this on the Fed.   How about another tax cut for corporations and the uber-wealthy with increased military spending?  Oh yeah, deficits don't matter.  For entitlements that serve the ruling elite.

Nothing to see there.  Move along.   (Got gold?)

Please remember the least of His creatures in these hard, barren months.

We have taken an abundant Eden, and turned it into a savage garden for the benefit of a few.

"Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing."

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Swing Kids - The Gathering Storm

"The NSDAP was nationalistic, respectful of the armed forces, socially conservative, disdainful of laziness, hostile to eccentric or incomprehensive ideas that came from cities, disapproving of homosexuals and other unconventional human types, and avid to achieve 'greatness' for Germany."

Walter Rinderle and Bernard Norling


“Hitler’s oratory moved people and appealed to their hopes and dreams.   But his speeches malevolently twisted hope into some gnarled ghastly entities, and appealed to the latent, darkest prejudices of Germans.”

Richard M. Perloff


"If there had been a strong democratic sentiment in Germany, Hitler would never have come to power.   No doubt men deserved what they got, when they went round crying for a 'hero.’"

AJP Taylor


"Our country is in a moment of crisis decades in the making, a moment in which America’s middle class has been hollowed out, working people have been betrayed, and democracy itself is under threat.   While it is easy to blame President Trump for our problems, the truth is that our challenges began long before him.   And without serious reforms, they are just as likely to outlast him."

Elizabeth Warren

Stocks continued to swing today, although the breadth of the highs and lows was not quite as great as has been usual. 

This cheered the spokesmodels a bit.  I wrote it off to fatigue and lack of interest.

The rally effort with which the markets charged in this morning once again failed into the afternoon.

Gold move a little lower, with silver and the Dollar going sideways.

The markets are hyper-focused on trade, with big swings following every indication of some change or new development in the trade spat between China and the US.

It does provide a decent distraction from the real situation, and the renewed stagnation that seems to be swirling around the feet of the real economy's tenuous grasp on the hillside of recovery.

The FOMC will meet next week, and very likely will raise interest rates a final 25 bp for 2018.  If they do not do so it would shock the markets.  But we may hear some slightly dovish sounds from those Solons of modern finance.

Actually this comparison is probably an injustice to Solon, who did engage in substantial monetary reforms and improvements during his time in ancient Greece. 

Without significant and genuine reform there will be no sustainable recovery.  But I would not underestimate how content many of the ruling class are with the current system as it is.  It has been paying them very, very well for many years.  And their comfortable smugness and insularity informs them that 'all is well'.

We seem to have a winter storm of sorts rolling in this afternoon.  The temperature has been dropping, and the air smells like snow.   Needless to say it is a raw kind of a gloomy day out there, and so Dolly and I have retreated to the warmth of the house, with warmth and good smells emanating from the pots simmering in the kitchen.

Have a pleasant evening.