Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Candy Coloured Clown They Call the Sandman - Fed Spikes Markets

Sandy:  You saw a lot in one night. It's a strange world.

Jeffrey:  Why are there people like Frank?  Why is there so much trouble in this world?

Sandy:  I don't know. I had a dream.  In fact, it was the night I met you.  In the dream, there was our world and the world was dark because there weren't any robins, and the robins represented love.  And for the longest time, there was just this darkness.  And all of a sudden, thousands of robins were set free, and they flew down and brought this Blinding Light of Love.  And it seemed like that love would be the only thing that would make any difference.  And it did.  So I guess it means there is trouble 'til the robins come.

David Lynch, Blue Velvet

Stocks were attempting to rally this morning, again.

The expectations in the market were broadly held that while the Fed would no doubt raise their benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, they would at least acknowledge that the economy is faltering a bit, inflation is subdued and fading, and that the equity and risk loans markets are dancing on the edge of an abyss.

But alas, that was not meant to be. The Fed put on their big boy pants, and decided that a hard lesson needed to be served up to the President, and the rest of the non-banking public as well.

After all, Jamie Dimon did say that a recession is no big deal, and might even do some good for JPM. Let them eat rate hikes. And there you have it.

Most were a bit surprised that the Fed took such a stone cold shot on this one.  I was wondering if they were going to send a message to tweet central about their prerogatives as the true money masters of the universe.

As I noted at the beginning of all this, the Fed will be raising rates not to fight inflation, not to defend the dollar, but to get their benchmark rate high enough off the zero bound so they have the ability to engage in interest rate policy after their latest financial asset bubble implodes.    And so far it looks like a close race.

As the afternoon unfolded I had this really marvelous image in my head of Trumpolini popping a gasket in the Oval Office, as he watched the stock markets selling off. This bubble rally is, after all, one of his few demonstrable accomplishments.

What reaction will we see from our apoplectic leader next: John Wick, from the movie of the same name, or Frank Booth, from cult classic Blue Velvet.

I can almost hear the sounds of amyl nitrate being huffed from the Oval Office now.

Gold and silver took a hit as the Dollar spiked higher.

Let's see how the rest of the world deals with the antics of our merry pranksters.

It looks like Santa won't be coming to Wall Street anytime soon.

Stock option expiration will be on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Truth or Consequences - FOMC and the Option Expiration

“Happy, happy Christmas, that can win us back to the delusions of our childish days; that can recall to the old man the pleasures of his youth; that can transport the sailor and the traveler, thousands of miles away, back to his own fire-side and his quiet home!

I will honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year.”

Charles Dickens


"Let the children have their night of fun and laughter.   Let the gifts of Father Christmas delight their play.   Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted pleasures before we turn again to the stern task and the formidable years that lie before us, resolved that, by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world.   And so, in God’s mercy, a happy Christmas to you all."

Winston Churchill, December 1941

Stocks attempted to rally today, and once again flopped into the close, although they managed to finish off their lows and nearly unchanged.

Gold caught a bid in a clear flight to safety, if but a bit subdued.  Silver and the Dollar moved sideways.

The FOMC meeting tomorrow may be pivotal for the markets, at least for a little while.

The Fed is almost universally expected to raise rates a last 25 bp for the year.   And I fully believe that they will, or otherwise shock the markets.

It is what they say and indicate about next year that is important.   They are strong whispers that they will signal a more cautious, data-focused approached towards raising rates, with dovish overtones.

They might have done so more strongly, but the Big Tweet had to threaten them, which makes their task all the more complicated, as they cannot be seen to be giving in to bullying, or lose what little credibility they have remains.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday.

If the wiseguys want to rig a Santa rally, the end of this week is as likely a time as we will see all things considered.  It would help to know in detail the short interest and amount of puts held, and volumes in the bearish ETFs.  That provides fodder for a proper jam-job.

Here is an article about Emergency Room Bills.   The US healthcare systems is disgraceful, blinded by greed to the point of insanity, emboldened by corruption and the abuses of big money.   It shames and sickens the decent  And yet we are proud of it, cling to it proudly, as we do our financial system.

But regardless, there will continue to be abuses, until we make them stop.  They will not stop of themselves.   And there will be consequences.

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And the Horse You Rode In On - Purposeful Risks

“Corrupt citizens breed corrupt rulers, and it is the mob who finally decides when virtue shall die.”

Taylor Caldwell, Dear and Glorious Physician


"The world is a comedy to those that think; a tragedy to those that feel — a solution of why Democritus laughed and Heraclitus wept."

Horace Walpole, Letter to Horace Mann


"I am not alone at all, I thought.  I was never alone at all.  And that, of course, is the message of Christmas.  We are never alone.  Not when the night is darkest, the wind coldest, the world seemingly most indifferent.  For this is still the time God chooses."

Taylor Caldwell, My Christmas Miracle

Stocks were slumping again today, in the true sense of the word.

All over America, financial advisors are telling mom and pop, 'stay fully invested.  You have no other choice, you have no where else to go.'  This is the end all and be all of their objective 'advice.'

With their savings at risk, and their real wages stagnant, it is getting increasingly difficult for the broad public to sustain the kind of buying that supports a consumer driven economy.   And the US has failed to create enough client states and colonies to buy their products, although they are more than willing to build them.

And the professional and ruling class cannot bring themselves to understand why the prosperity which they are enjoying is not leading to a resurgent economy and a happy and thriving public.  Instead there is a growing discontent and mistrust, which is blamed on foreign interference.

Lies have consequences. 

There is no urgency or high volumes in this selling.  It is just the unloading by smart money out of the latest bubble that they and their associates have created for their own narrow benefits.

Gold and silver caught a bid. The Dollar was weaker.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday. This may be the catalyst for a kind of 'Santa Claus rally'

Starość nie radość —  old age is no joke.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - US Debt 'Riskier' than Chinese Debt - FOMC and Stock Option Expiration

"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God.  Thereafter, any attack even on the least of men is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. 

Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer


“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him.  We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now.  We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

And yet the ever-blessed Spirit of God is here, ten times more glorious, more powerful than when He trod the earth in our flesh."

John Henry Newman


“To escape the pain caused by regret for the past or fear about the future, this is the rule to follow: leave the past to the infinite mercy of God, the future to His good Providence, and give the present wholly to His love by being faithful to His grace.”

Jean-Pierre de Caussade, Abandonment to Divine Providence

Stocks made yet another morning rally attempt.

But as it has so often been doing, it faded in late morning, and a slide began that ended up going out on the lows.

The spokesmodels fearfully wonder why the puppies are not eating their puppy chow.

This is not constructive action for any kind of market reversal.

Next week we will have an FOMC meeting. The Fed is almost universally expected to raise rates by 25 bp. The key factor will be the language they employ about the outlook for next year.

Some bullishness may be provoked by the way in which the Fed positions their interest rate stance for next year, whether it is substantial or not.

There will be the December stock option expiration on Friday.

This sets up the stage for a sharp relief or rebound rally IF the Trump-Trade-Brexit-Riots factors are at least benign, or ideally more optimistic.

And in another impressive feat and MAGA moment, for the first time in history, US 1Yr Treasuries are market priced as riskier than similar Chinese sovereign debt.

"Here’s another reason Donald Trump is “not at all happy with the Fed” and will continue to be frustrated by the world’s No. 2 economy. He is the first president to suffer the new normal of China becoming more creditworthy than the U.S. That’s right: America now pays more to borrow money than China does."

I would not necessarily lay all of this on the Fed.   How about another tax cut for corporations and the uber-wealthy with increased military spending?  Oh yeah, deficits don't matter.  For entitlements that serve the ruling elite.

Nothing to see there.  Move along.   (Got gold?)

Please remember the least of His creatures in these hard, barren months.

We have taken an abundant Eden, and turned it into a savage garden for the benefit of a few.

"Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing."

Have a pleasant weekend.