Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Litany In Time of Plague - Comex Option Expiration on Thursday

"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!"

"As I turn 75, there’s no simpler way to put it than this: I’m an old man on a new planet — and, in case it isn’t instantly obvious, that’s not good news on either score...

And I find myself looking at a world that, had you described it to me in the worst moments of the Vietnam War years when I was regularly in the streets protesting, I would never have believed possible.  I probably would have thought you stark raving mad.  Here I am in an America not just with all the weirdness of Donald Trump, but with a media that feeds on his every bizarre word, tweet, and act as if nothing else were happening on the face of the Earth.  If only...

If you had told me that, in the next century, we would be fighting unending wars from Afghanistan to Somalia and beyond I would have been shocked. If you had added that, though even veterans of those wars largely believe they shouldn’t have been fought, just about no one would be out in the streets protesting, I would have thought you were nuts."

Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch


"The Babylonian starlight brought
A fabulous, formless darkness in;
Odour of blood when Christ was slain
Made all platonic tolerance vain,
And vain all Doric discipline."

William Butler Yeats


"The reason is partly because of a glitch in human cognition known as the just world hypothesis or just world fallacy, which causes us to assume that if bad things are happening to someone, it’s because that person deserves it.  Blaming the victim is more psychologically comfortable than seeing that we live in an unjust world where we could very easily become victim ourselves someday, and we select for that comfort over rational analysis.

Like other cognitive biases, this one fundamentally boils down to our annoying psychological tendency to select for cognitive ease over cognitive discomfort.  It feels more psychologically comfortable to interpret new information in a way that confirms our preexisting opinions, so we get confirmation bias.

It feels psychologically comfortable to assume something is true after hearing it repeated many times, so we get the illusory truth effect.  It feels more psychologically comfortable to believe we live in a fair world where people get what they deserve than to believe we’re in a chaotic world where many of the most materially prosperous people are also the most depraved and sociopathic, and that we could be next in line to be victimized by them, so we get the just world fallacy."

Caitlin Johnstone, The Just World Fallacy: Why People Bash Assange and Defend Power


“The so-called paradox of freedom is the argument that freedom in the sense of absence of any constraining control must lead to very great restraint, since it makes the bully free to enslave the meek.  The idea is, in a slightly different form, and with very different tendency, clearly expressed in Plato.

Less well known is the paradox of tolerance:  unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance.  If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them."

Karl Popper


"And some of us who have already begun to break the silence of the night have found that the calling to speak is often a vocation of agony, but we must speak.  We must speak with all the humility that is appropriate to our limited vision, but we must speak."

Martin Luther King, A Time to Break the Silence, April 1967


"What does it profit a man, to gain the whole world, but lose his soul?"

Mark 8:36

Stocks were on a tear today, on the reduced perception of risk in the recent budget deal between the two US parties at the higher levels, and the news out around 2 PM that trade talks with China are 'back on.'

I do believe that US stocks are heading to another blow off top. Timing such a thing is always problematic, and it is not good to try and front run such a thing. One only ends up exhausting themselves, their resolve and their capital.

Gold took another shot today. In part it is because of the continuing strength in the Dollar, of perhaps better stated, the intentional weakening in the Euro, which is by far its major trading cross currency.

But silver held in quite well. Silver is not traded so much as a currency, but is generally at least a 50% industrial commodity.

But perhaps more importantly gold is heading into its August contract option expiration, and the reports show that speculators are very long the contract, and the Banks are quite short, with a very large open interest.

So we may most likely continue to see antics in the price of gold, including the days after as the Banks continue to try and knock down the weaker hands in the speculative longs.

I wish that I could believe that almost all people are basically good and rational most of the time, and that it is only some unfortunate error in judgement, some quirk in human psychology, that causes them to not just tolerate, but to wholeheartedly embrace  genuine evil.

I think at various times more people than we might care to admit can fall into a persistent and stubborn tendency to give themselves over to what in retrospect might be objectively called evil.

These modern psychological fallacies are often convenient ways used to enable and excuse what can only be described as a lack of empathy for others.  Such a pathological lack of compassion is commonly born in an overwhelming self-absorption and greed.  They seek to gain the world for their own sake, for themselves.

In pursuing themselves as the greatest good, they make a conscious decision to dehumanize themselves.  They choose to discard what they perceive to be a source of weakness and pain, and an insult to their pride in being exceptional.  They seek redemption in themselves and the power of the herd.

They allow themselves to become beasts, not all at once, but by one by one decision at a time.  They finally give themselves over to a imbalance so great as to be madness.  And in choosing themselves and the power of the beast they lose themselves and, if you will, their souls.

Non serviam.  And the madness will serve none but itself.

We tend to look back on history, as an interesting story, but that we stand apart from it. We are different, and unlike those who have gone before.

And when it comes to stories of good and evil, well, those are quaint notions for some, but certainly not for us.   Our insulation is our pride, and nihilism, and belief in the indifference nothingness, without any particular interest or judgement.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Government Of, By and For the Felonious Few - Comex Options Expiration

“When you live under such an oligarchy, there is always some crisis or the other that takes priority over boring stuff such as healthcare and pollution.  If the nation is facing external invasion or diabolical subversion, who has the time to worry about overcrowded hospitals and polluted rivers?   By manufacturing a never-ending stream of crises, a corrupt oligarchy can prolong its rule indefinitely.”

Yuval Noah Harari


"And I begin to realize that in every chapter of Shortest Way Home—indeed, almost on every page—there is an expression of the same underlying idea, which is that you can substitute experience with problem-solving skills, and approximate perspective, ideology, even morality with sheer intelligence and boldness.

This closely resembles the arrogance of tech billionaires who believe that although they have neither the knowledge nor the experience nor the wisdom, they can solve the world’s problems anyway, because, well, because look how successful they’ve been at everything else.

You almost want to cheer them on. Until you realize that they are dead wrong, that if they want to help solve the world’s problems they had better stop sucking all the oxygen and money out of the room and start paying taxes and letting there be a return to a balance of power."

Dan Simon, Mayor Pete’s autobiography says it all


"But there is a sort of 'Ok guys, you're mad, but how are you going to stop me' mentality at the top."

Robert Johnson, Audacious Oligarchy

The Internal Temp Setting in my Subaru Forester Is Aspirational, Not Actual

Despite the line of storms that went through last night, leaving Dolly shaking and hyperventilating, the much expected break in the weather really did not arrive as expected. Today was less scorching, yes, but the humidity is still enough to rehydrate the Dead Sea Scrolls and make them as pliable as tissue.

And expectations that the markets would do anything today were also not fulfilled.

If you were actively trading this market today, you *might* wish to consider calling Gambler's Anonymous.

Unless of course you are being paid to do that sort of thing by some big faceless, evil Bank, in which case you should reconsider all the life decisions that brought you to this point.

Well hope beats eternal, and a 'cold front' is expected to come through and rip shit on our peaceful village later today, but bringing us weather in the 80 degree range, which is a vast improvement over the 106° actual temperatures we enjoyed over the weekend.

We will also be enjoying another Comex precious metals option expiration this week on the 25^th.

The markets may be in this dog days, summer trading doldrums like trance until the Fed meeting next week.  Unless Trumpolini splashes the tranquility of the lazy days with some out of left field tweet.

People seem prepared for the ascension of Boris Johnson to be the next UK PM.   It does give us some comfort that we are not the only ones with a barely qualified yob at the helm.

There were sightings and photos of a very large shark, swimming in the shallow waters off the Hamptons this weekend.   Luckily none of the vacationing elite were attacked, surely out of professional courtesy.

I read today, and posted a link to an article over at Wall Street On Parade that suggests that perhaps Mr. Jeffrey Epstein's mysterious financial concern may have received a secret Federal Reserve bailout. I don't know why this might shock us. After all, it seems to be the customary way of dealing with unreformed and unrepentant serial felons.

It does our hearts warm to see how our oligarchy can shamelessly take care of their own, while brutalizing the average taxpayers and solid citizens, while shaming them for their misery.  After all, it's what sociopaths do.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Feeling the Risk - Options Expiring

"The historical evidence is overwhelming. Many societies have done well for a while – until powerful people get out of hand.   This is an easy pattern to see at a distance and in other cultures.  It is typically much harder to recognize when your own society now has an elite less subject to effective constraints and more able to exert power in an abusive fashion.  And given the long history of strong institutions in the United States, it appears particularly difficult for some people to acknowledge that we have serious governance issues that need to be addressed."

Simon Johnson


"It is as popular now as ever to blame poor people for their station in life. Republican politicians love to talk about how poor people could stop being poor if only they made better choices or worked harder. If only they'd stop buying iPhones, they could afford insurance! These assholes - and I do not use that slur lightly - have no clue what it is like to grow up poor. They have no clue how hard it is in many places in the US just to keep the lights on and food on the table.

It is easy for them, from the comfort of their cushy offices and homes, with full bellies and bank accounts, to pretend that poor people like my mother are poor because they are stupid or lazy or ignorant or irresponsible rather than confront the broken systems that perpetuate poverty in Appalachia and all across the US.

Poor people don't contribute to reelection funds, but those who profit from poor people sure do. Therefore, truth be told, most politicians couldn't care less about the plight of the poor. There's so much profit to be made from poor people - think payday loans, high-interest rent-to-own stores, for-profit colleges, and overpriced mobile homes - that politicians and their crony-capitalist donors have a vested interest in keeping them poor."

Joshua Wilkey, My Mother Wasn't White Trash

Stocks sold off fairly sharply today.

One could point the finger at unrest in the Middle East, as Iran was blamed for seizing not one but two British tankers.

The VIX responded and so did the US dollar.

But gold and silver fell, in response to the Dollar but without regard to risk. For now.

I include my chart below showing the three ways of picturing this presumed consolidation pause on the gold breakout.

As you can see, my preferred formation the symmetrical triangle is making a very good fit. Gold came back down to test or 'kiss' the triangle after the initial breakout. In the other two gold merely retreats.

The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut at the next FOMC meetin on July 30-31. They had been thinking of 50 basis points. There was quite a bit of speculation on that earlier this week, sparked by some comments from a Fed head.  The Fed has gone to some pains to correct that misperception.

And while no cut is certainly a possibility, I think it might shock the markets.

The markets are so spoiled on their bubble milky that they might even sell the news on a 25 basis cut.

Well, whatever. We'll have to wait for that one. I have included the economic calendar for next week.

Let's see what next week brings.

Have a pleasant weekend.

.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A New Phase in the Currency War - Stock Option Expiration Friday

"And, for the same reason that they do not please Him, they succeed in pleasing themselves.  Hence, they become both self-satisfied and self-sufficient – they think they know just what they ought to do, and that they do it all; and in consequence they are very well content with themselves, and rate their merit very high, and have no fear at all of any future scrutiny into their conduct...

For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, traitors, heady, high-minded having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof.   Evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving and being deceived."

John Henry Newman


"Since God has accepted you to be among His people that He loves, you must clothe yourselves with tender mercy, kindness, humility, gentleness, and patience.  Make allowances for each other’s faults, and forgive anyone who offends you.  Remember, the Lord forgave you, so you must also forgive others.

Above all, clothe yourselves with love, which brings us all together in harmony.  And let the peace of the Lord rule in your hearts.  For as members of one body you are called to live in peace.  And always be thankful."

Col 3:12-15


'All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door.'

John Kenneth Galbraith

The Dollar took a dive in the afternoon.

Gold and silver broke up higher with some energy.

There are indeed a couple of ways of marking the current formation on the gold chart.   I have chosen a symmetrical triangle, but one could also make a case for an ascending triangle, or even a bullish flag.

What is more important is that each of these describes an underlying condition of an item that has risen in value, and that is taking a pause to consolidate its price gains before moving higher again.

Gold and silver both seem to be doing this.

Stocks also caught a bid, and the perception of risk fell as measured by the VIX.

So what is going on here?

The central banks of the Western world have declared themselves for low to negative interest rates, which is another form of printing money.

And despite modern theories to the contrary, when governments print money, the wise find forms of refuge for their wealth.

And for now even stocks, and the bubble in financial assets, provides such a refuge.   Only cash is trash.

And the public is being picked clean while being distracted by public circuses and reality show carnival style government.

Well, that certainly is a weighty and expansive manner in which to view things, but it has served well during this period of bubble-nomics.

Let's take this one step at a time.   The manner of any retracements and future short term moves will help to identify the specific nature of this breakout.

It does appear that the years long dampening of the precious metals have been the last great push of the NY-London gold pool, and that a new phase of the currency war has begun.

But it is still the same, crooked system run by insiders for their own benefit, lacking in any meaningful reform.

Repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness.

Have a pleasant evening.