25 November 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Chasing Beta On Light Volumes - Metal Prices Slump on an Option Expiration


"Honest, industrious, peaceful citizens were classed as bloodsuckers, if they asked to be paid a living wage.  And they saw that praise was reserved henceforth for those who devised means of getting paid enormously for committing crimes against which no laws had been [or could be] passed.  Thus the American dream turned belly up, turned green, bobbed to the scummy surface of cupidity unlimited, filled with gas, went bang in the noonday sun."

Kurt Vonnegut, God Bless You Mr. Rosewater


"Isn't it a riddle and awe-inspiring that things can be so beautiful, despite the horrors?  I've seen something wondrous peering through my joy in the beautiful, a sense of its creator.

Only people can be truly ugly, because they have free will to separate themselves from this song of praise.  It often seems they may drown out this hymn with cannon thunder, curses, and blasphemy.  But I have realized they will not succeed.  And so I want to throw myself on the side of the victor.”

Sophie Scholl

The saddest words in any language are those of irreparable regret, that come to haunt us in our last hours, 'If only...'

It was a risk on day in a big way today, as all the major stock indices ran up and out on new highs.

Optimism about China, and trade, and impeachment, and the economy all drove 'money on the sidelines' to try and 'catch up by investing' in risk assets at these bloated price levels.

If you were buying today it was not so much investing as banking on the greater fool theory and the quiet low volume markets in a trade-shortened week.

Gold and silver were lower, as befitting a major Comex option expiration.

We may get another gut check in the metals, given the quiet trading this week and the size of the December metals contracts.

On the brighter side, I have begun sous vide part deux today. The target this time are baby back ribs. Cooking time is about 24 hours at 155°. The ribs were vacuum sealed with a dry rub, a little brown sugar, a dash of liquid smoke, and a dash of bourbon early this morning and left in the fridge.  After they are done they will be quickly seared under the broiler or on the grill.  I'll let you know how it comes out.

The time grows short, shorter for some of us. And the powers of this world are never at rest, but prowl like ravening wolves, seeking to devour us.

Do not spend so much time looking at the other fellow and judging them harshly. First look to yourselves, and practice putting your own hardened hearts and foolish desires aside, for His sake.

The night approaches, and it is almost time to come home.  Do not be left out in the dark.

Have a pleasant evening.





22 November 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Power and the Glory


“Four sorrows are certain to be visited on the United States.
  • First, there will be a state of perpetual war.
  • Second is a loss of democracy and Constitutional rights as the presidency eclipses Congress and is itself transformed from a co-equal ‘executive branch’ of government into a military junta.
  • Third is the replacement of truth by propaganda, disinformation, and the glorification of war, power, and the military legions.
  • Lastly, there is bankruptcy, as the United States pours its economic resources into ever more grandiose military projects and shortchanges the education, health, and safety of its citizens.”
Chalmers Johnson, The Sorrows of Empire, 2005


"Do not be fooled into thinking that you will never suffer because you say that I dwell among you.  It is your delusion and lying words.  Do you really believe you can steal, murder, commit adultery, lie, and worship the gods of the world and those other new gods of yours, and then come here and stand before me in my own house and say, 'We are safe', only to go right back to all your lawlessness again?  Do you not see that this house of yours, which you mark with my name, has become a den of thieves?"

Jeremiah 7:5-7

The Dollar was higher, VIX was lower, and stocks largely unchanged, hanging on to their near support.

Gold and silver were off a bit in sympathy with a lessening of fear and the stronger Dollar.

As you know Monday will be an important option expiration for the precious metals on the Comex. Perhaps then, or after a day or two of continued shenanigans, we can begin to progress things. Or not.

I was pressed into service late in the afternoon. Apparently this is the time to distribute food to the poor from our local church. A thoroughly worthwhile endeavour. I do not do enough of this sort of thing.

The sous vide top round roast came out much better than expected. It was medium rare throughout, moist and flavorful, and as tender as a filet, after 24 hours of slow cooking.   The juice in the cooking bag was used as a base to make a mushroom-onion gravy, over rice, with sauteed Chinese eggplant and okra in a sherry garlic butter.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.


21 November 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Into the Wilderness - Sous Vide


"The Marxist political parties, including the Social Democrats and their followers, had fourteen years to prove their abilities.  The result is a heap of ruins.   All around us are symptoms portending this breakdown.  With an unparalleled effort of will and of brute force the Communist method of madness is trying as a last resort to poison and undermine an inwardly shaken and uprooted nation.

In fourteen years the November parties have ruined the German farmer.  In fourteen years they created an army of millions of unemployed.  The National Government will carry out the following plan with iron resolution and dogged perseverance.  Within four years the German farmer must be saved from pauperism.  Within four years unemployment must be completely overcome.

Our concern to provide daily bread will be equally a concern for the fulfillment of the responsibilities of society to those who are old and sick. The best safeguard against any experiment which might endanger the currency lies in economical administration, the promotion of work, and the preservation of agriculture, as well as in the use of individual initiative."

Adolf Hitler, Radio Appeal to the German People, February 1, 1933


"Both religion and socialism thus glorify weakness and need.  Both recoil from the world as it is: tough, unequal, harsh.  Both flee to an imaginary future realm where they can feel safe.  Both say to you.  Be a nice boy.  Be a good little girl.  Share.  Feel sorry for the little people.  And both desperately seek someone to look after them—whether it be God or the State.

A thriving upper class accepts with a good conscience the sacrifice of untold human beings, who, for its sake, must be reduced and lowered to incomplete human beings,to slaves, to instruments... One cannot fail to see in all these noble races the beast of prey, the splendid blond beast, prowling about avidly in search of spoil and victory; this hidden core needs to erupt from time to time, the animal has to get out again and go back to the wilderness.”

Friedrich Nietzsche


“At a certain point in their historical cycles, social classes become detached from their traditional parties. In other words, the traditional parties, in their particular organisational bias, with the particular men who constitute, represent and lead them, are no longer recognised by their class as their own, and representing their interests. When such crises occur, the immediate situation becomes delicate and dangerous, because the field is open for violent solutions, for the activities of unknown forces, represented by charismatic 'men of destiny' [demagogues].

The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born:  now is the time of monsters.”

Antonio Gramsci, Prison Notebooks, 1930-35


"Be human in this most inhuman of ages; guard the image of man for it is the image of God.  You agree?  Good.  Then go with my blessing.  But I warn you, do not expect to make many friends.  One of the awful facts of our age is the evidence that it is stricken indeed, stricken to the very core of its being by the presence of the Unspeakable."

Thomas Merton, Raids on the Unspeakable

Stocks were weak again today, on geopolitical concerns, the continuing trade war with China, and of course the weakening global economy.

Gold was off a bit. I don't think gold or silver are going to be able to break out until after the Comex option expiration for the big December contract next week on the 25th.  Since this is so obvious there may be a 'twist' but I am not counting on it.

So I am not adding anything to my gold or silver trading position for now, even on weakness. We are well within the bounds of the chart consolidation formation.

As for stocks, I took my leveraged short position off intraday, as we went down to the lower bound of the trading channel. If it breaks down from here we might see some chop and then perhaps a waterfall. Remember what happened last December?

Even with the Fed adding liquidity in liberal amounts to the Banks, it may not be enough if the real economy decides to hit the exits. One might wonder if they have already put one foot out the door.

There is quite a bit of willful self-delusion going around these days. People are sticking their heads into news sites and sources that tell them what they wish to hear. That may not be such a good thing when reality comes crashing through.

I am cooking sous vide for the first time.  It literally means 'under vacuum.'  I have wanted to do it for a while, but I needed to pick up a good machine to vacuum seal the roast in a cooking bag for the long, slow cooking under water at 130°F.    I'll let you know how the top round roast I put in today for tomorrow's dinner comes out.

Be human, in this most inhuman of ages and times. It is unlikely that you will find the truth, or lasting comfort, from those who have pledged their souls to money, and power, and influence, and the darkness of this world.

It profits a man nothing, if they trade their soul for the whole world—  but for a brief political and economic advantage?   Better to stand on the truth, and for the truth, and with something worthy that lasts, come what may.  And that is the heart of the matter, and of the desperate struggle in which we are all engaged.  For the sake of our souls and for those that we love.

Have a pleasant evening.



20 November 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - As Old As Babylon, and Evil as Sin - The Reivers


"After Alexander the Macedonian, Philip’s son, who came from the land of Kittim, had defeated Darius, king of the Persians and Medes, he became king in his place, having first ruled in Greece.

He fought many battles, captured strongholds, and put the kings of the earth to death.   He extended his rule to the ends of the world, gathering plunder from many nations.  The earth itself fell silent before him, and his heart became arrogant and proud."

1 Maccabees 1:1-3


"The more power a government has the more it can act arbitrarily according to the whims and desires of the elite, and the more it will make war on others and murder its foreign and domestic subjects."

R. J. Rummel, Death by Government: A History of Mass Murder and Genocide Since 1900


"This is as old as Babylon, and evil as sin.  It is the power of the darkness of the world, and of spiritual wickedness in high places.  The only difference is that it is not happening in the past, or in a book, or in some vaguely frightening prophecy— it is happening here and now."

Jesse


"The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well.  Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them.  Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich.  Plunder, rape, and murder they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace."

Tacitus

Stocks slipped today, as the trade war with China was kicked up a notch by the Congress resolution in support of Hong Kong protests.

But seriously, stocks had hit a very obvious high note yesterday, at least for the short term. I came in pretty short based on that if/come, and took half off intraday.

The Fed and their Banks may be able to blow a little more hot air into this financial asset bubble, but the shadows are lengthening and the hour grows late.

How nice of Sweden to drop their trumped up charges against Assange, now that Uncle Thug and its merry minions of empire have managed to betray his freedom, and wear down his body and spirit.

O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, you who murder

Gold and silver moved sideways again.  I don't think that they are going to break free ahead of the Comex options expiration next week.

Have a pleasant evening.