The Pandemic of 1918

"Besides replicating very quickly, the 1918 strain seems to trigger a particularly intense response from the immune system, including a ‘cytokine storm’ – the rapid release of immune cells and inflammatory molecules.

Although a robust immune response should help us fight infection, an over-reaction of this kind can overload the body, leading to severe inflammation and a build-up of fluid in the lungs that could increase the chance of secondary infections.

The cytokine storm might help to explain why young, healthy adults – who normally find it easier to shake off flu – were the worst affected, since in this case their stronger immune systems created an even more severe cytokine storm."

BBC, Why the Flu of 1918 Was So Deadly

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Markets Reverse on 'Breakthrough' in US-China Trade

Yet another breakthrough in the ongoing trade dispute with China.

It certainly was a nice suprise for the markets, especially for those who knew about it in advance.

UK election coverage starts at 5 PM here after the voting stations close. Very sensible.

The exit polls there are indicating a Tory majority, which indicates for Brexit sooner rather than later.

That should be interesting to watch.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Fed at Ease - Dollar Down, Metals Up

"Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It redefines citizens as consumers, whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains that “the market” delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning.

We internalise and reproduce its creeds. The rich persuade themselves that they acquired their wealth through merit, ignoring the advantages – such as education, inheritance and class – that may have helped to secure it. The poor begin to blame themselves for their failures, even when they can do little to change their circumstances.

It has played a major role in a remarkable variety of crises: the financial meltdown of 2007‑8, the offshoring of wealth and power, of which the Panama Papers offer us merely a glimpse, the slow collapse of public health and education, resurgent child poverty, the epidemic of loneliness, the collapse of ecosystems, the rise of Donald Trump. But we respond to these crises as if they emerge in isolation, apparently unaware that they have all been either catalysed or exacerbated by the same coherent philosophy; a philosophy that has – or had – a name. What greater power can there be than to operate namelessly?"

George Monbiot


"Over the past few years, in this Committee, we have seen the Trump Administration dismantle many of the protections we put in place after the last financial crisis, putting our financial system and hardworking families around the country at risk.  The SEC has flown under the radar, but often the agenda has been the same – taking Wall Street’s side over and over, instead of standing with investors saving for retirement or college or a down payment."

US Senator Sherrod Brown, Oversight Hearing of the SEC, 10 December 2019

The Fed did nothing as expected today.

And the indications are that they will continue to do nothing for some time, unless their hand is forced by some exogenous event in the world, or some systemic misadventure with the mispricing of risk.

As I have indicated, the Fed now has a 'high bar' for raising rates. And lowering them will just fuel the asset bubble.
So gold and silver caught a bid, while the Dollar dived.

Stocks finished up a little higher, but seem to be struggling at these levels despite the enormous amount of liquidity being put into the hands of Wall Street by the Fed.

And so now the eyes of the markets now turn to the UK general election, and even moreso to the 'trade war' and the deadline for tariff increases on this coming Sunday.

I have a feeling that things are going to become quite a bit worse before they can get better. The general strike in France, and civil unrest in other parts of the world, is just a taste of things to come.

We are afflicted by some social and economic theories that are quite mad, and rather destructive.   And as Yeats noted, 'the best seem to lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity.'   And willful madness, in some circles at the fringes, has become fashionable.

This too shall pass. Pride always struggles with the humility of creation, and seeks to destory it as it destroys itself. It cannot win of course, because that victory has already been won by the most human and most humble of all His creation.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Waiting for the Fed in a Lackluster Trading Day

"Progress is a nice word.  But change is its motivator.  And change has its enemies.”

Robert F. Kennedy

Stocks remained largely unchanged in a weak trade with a deceptively wide trading range.

The Dollar was lower while gold and silver moved higher.

I think it is fair to say that the markets are waiting to see how something unfolds.

I suspect that the FOMC tomorrow is the first shoe to drop, if only to confirm that the Fed is going to be on hold with a high bar for increases.

The UK general election will be the next, followed by the anticipated action on tariffs with China this weekend.

Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.