06 January 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - No Fear for Equities - Gold Hits New All-time High in Euros


A Question of Balance
“Many politicians are tantalizing storytellers, as they mix facts with fiction, grab our emotion and tell things they want us to believe.  Their factoids are unremittingly reiterated, take a life on their own, and in the end become the very truth— until the bubble bursts."

Erik Pevernagie


“The narcissist devours people, consumes their output, and casts the empty, writhing shells aside.”

Sam Vaknin


"Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility."

Nassim Taleb

Stock futures slumped and the safe havens rocketed higher on Sunday evening, as the implications of the assassination of a high ranking Iranian figure weighed on risk perceptions.

But never fear, the markets managed to shake off all these concerns, and reverse their losses and retake much of the losses from Friday.

Huzzah, we win again.

And so stocks boldly stated that there is no fear.  But your friendly financial spokemodel may have neglected to mention that gold just hit a new all time high in euros.

Gold and silver managed to hold on to a chunk of their gains as the dollar moved lower.

I would keep an eye on the former resistance for gold at $1550 to see how things may go into the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

Trumpolini and his merry band of Banksters keep pointing to the stock markets as vindication and validation of their greatness.   So we might expect some serious attention to be given to keeping up the 'confidence' in the integrity of our US financial markets.   Appearances must be maintained when the reality is rotten.

The Fed owns a printing press, and the Banks own the Fed.  Here endeth the lesson.  QED

Have a pleasant evening.





03 January 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk Off - Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week


Rome and the whole pagan world had gone mad, and Caesar was swimming in blood...
“Four sorrows are certain to be visited on the United States.
  • First, there will be a state of perpetual war.
  • Second is a loss of democracy and Constitutional rights as the presidency eclipses Congress and is itself transformed from a co-equal ‘executive branch’ of government into a military junta.
  • Third is the replacement of truth by propaganda, disinformation, and the glorification of war, power, and the military legions.
  • Lastly, there is bankruptcy, as the United States pours its economic resources into ever more grandiose military projects and shortchanges the education, health, and safety of its citizens.”
Chalmers Johnson, The Sorrows of Empire, 2005


“Seneca had made the bargain that many good men have made when agreeing to aid bad regimes.  On the one hand, their presence strengthens the regime and helps it endure.  But their moral influence may also improve the regime's behavior or save the lives of its enemies.  For many, this has been a bargain worth making, even if it has cost them—as it may have cost Seneca—their immortal soul.”

James Romm, Dying Every Day: Seneca at the Court of Nero


"If you are wise and understand God’s ways, prove it by living an honorable life, doing good works with the humility that comes from wisdom.  But if you are bitterly jealous and there is selfish ambition in your heart, don't hide the truth with boasting and lying. For jealousy and selfishness are not God’s kind of wisdom.  Such things are worldly, carnal, and demonic. For wherever there is jealousy and selfish ambition, there you will find disorder and evil of every kind."

James 3:13-15

Stocks took a major hit last night, and gold soared, in a flight to safety reaction after it was announced that the US had assassinated one of Iran's military and political leaders.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund managed to walk the futures back up a bit, and Wall Street closed ranks to help stocks regain some of this lost ground.

Gold however did not give up much ground, and is bumping its head against the key overhead resistance of 1550 on the chart.   If 1550 is taken out, we may see some significant moves sooner rather than later.  The ranges are marked on the chart.

Silver did not really participate because it is not a 'safe haven' play in the same manner as gold.  It is a companion to gold for the most part, but not the same, and not motivated by all the same things.  That is just how it goes.

The mental gyrations of the spokesmodels on financial television today, in dismissing the drop in stocks as the over-reaction of junior traders while the adults were still on holiday, was almost funny. It seemed like desperation.

We don't bother with facts or evidence much anymore—  just personal attacks and louder and more flamboyant rhetoric.

So let's see where this goes. 

It may turn out all right, and perhaps result in something positive.  But I am not hopeful at all.  And it is a major mistake to just dismiss this widening of exogenous risks as a 'blip on the screen.'  

The hucksters and carnival barkers of the financiers may say this, but they do not believe it one bit.  And neither should you.

Stocks are richly valued here, and the financial system is much more fragile than the powers that be will admit.

Other than continuing to pour more liquidity to the Banks, and allowing them to execute their virtually unregulated schemes behind the scenes, I don't think that there is a viable 'plan B' should things get nasty.

And my comfort level with the current administration in handling complex strategic issues with forethought and seriousness is almost nil.

In other words, do not count on your idols to protect you.  They may protect and help their associates and friends, but you, their blind worshippers and dispensable tools, are not among them.

The easy falling away of the faithful leaves one shocked, as well as deeply saddened.  For what does it profit a man, to give their soul for the whole world-- but for such an insignificant vanity?

Have a pleasant weekend.





02 January 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On - Everything - First Trading Day of New Decade


"In no sense is this QE." - Jay Powell
"Wash the plate, not because it is dirty, or because you are told to wash it, but because you love the person who will use it next."

Mother Teresa of Calcutta


"How contrary are the teachings of Jesus to the feelings of nature. Without the help of His grace it would be impossible not only to put them into practice, but to even understand them.

Holiness consists simply in doing God's will, and being just what God wants us to be. Our Lord does not look so much at the greatness of our actions, or even at their difficulty, but at the love with which we do them.  Without love, deeds, even the greatest, count as nothing.”

Thérèse Martin de Lisieux


"We pray for the big things, and forget to give thanks for the ordinary, small, and yet really not so small, blessings.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Stocks were sharply higher on the open, on enthusiasm sparked by stimulus to their domestic markets by the Peoples' Bank of China.

The futures pulled back sharply in the first hour to almost unchanged, and then slowly gathered themselves and rose to new highs in the late afternoon hours.

This was clearly a momentum trading rally, and part short squeeze.

Gold and silver were higher along with the dollar, while VIX fell.

And thereby I am calling it 'the everything rally.'

The spokesmodels were talking about 'the new normal' on financial TV this afternoon.

This is going to be a very interesting year.

Have a pleasant evening.






31 December 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Where Are You Going, Lord? - Last Trading Day of the Decade


“Pity the nation that raises not its voice, except to praise conquerors and acclaim the bully as hero and aims to rule the world with force and by torture."

Lawrence Ferlinghetti, New Poems, City Lights


"The fact that these foolish people are often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that they are not independent. In conversation with them, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with them as a person, but with slogans, catchwords, and the like that have taken possession of them. They are under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in their very being.

Having thus become a mindless tool, the foolish person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy the human soul.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Letters and Papers From Prison


"As everything in what used to be called creation becomes a commodity, human beings begin to look at one another, and at themselves, in a funny way, and they see price tags. There was a time when people spoke, at least occasionally, of 'inherent worth'— if not of things, then at least of persons.  It is sometimes said that since everything is for sale under the rule of The Market, nothing is sacred.  The Market is not omnipotent— yet. But the process is under way and it is gaining momentum."

Harvey Cox, The Market as God


"Children, it is the last hour; and just as you heard that the antichrist was coming, so now many antichrists have appeared. Thus we know this is the last hour. They went out from us, but they were not really of our number; if they had been, they would have remained with us. Their desertion shows that none of them was of our number. But you have the anointing that comes from the Holy One, and you all have knowledge. I write to you not because you do not know the truth but because you do."

1 John 2:18-21

Today is the last trading day of the decade.

The next decade will be interesting if history is any guide for us.

The most shocking thing about this last decade was the falling away of so many of the faithful— and for so insignificant a vanity.

The markets were jammed higher into the close on the thinnest of trading. Bravo.

Have a pleasant evening.

And may God have mercy on us, His foolish and obstinate children.

See you next year.