Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Great Cycle of 'Stuff' - Wild Day in the Markets

 

"This word inequality.  It's visible in the ever rising costs of healthcare and college, in the coronation of Wall Street, and the slow blighting of wherever it is that you happen to live.  And you catch a glimpse of inequality every time you hear about someone that had to declare bankruptcy because a child got sick, or you read about the lobbying industry that drives Washington DC, or the new political requirement, the new constitutional requirement that every presidential candidate has to be a billionaire's favorite, or a billionaire themselves. 

Inequality is about the way in which speculators, and even criminals, get a helping hand from Uncle Sam, while the Vietnam Vet down the street from you loses his house.  Inequality is the reason that some people find such incredible significance in the ceiling height of an entrance foyer, or the hop content of a beer, while other people will never believe in anything again. 

This is what a society looks like when the glue that holds it together starts to dissolve.  This is the way ordinary citizens react when they learn that the structure beneath them is crumbling.  And this is the thrill that pulses through the veins of the well-to-do when they discover that there is no longer any limit on their power to accumulate." 

Thomas Frank

 

"There is a lack of critical assessment of the past. But you have to understand that the current ruling elite is actually the old ruling elite. So they are incapable of a self-critical approach to the past." 

Ryszard Kapuscinski 

 

"Major commercial and investment banks—and the hedge funds that ran alongside them—were the big beneficiaries of the twin housing and equity-market bubbles of this decade, their profits fed by an ever-increasing volume of transactions founded on a relatively small base of actual physical assets.   Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear.  Recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform.  And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time." 

Simon Johnson, The Quiet Coup, May 2009 

 

Fed Chairman Powell did not meet the expectations of Wall Street in his speech and remarks today. 

It is hard to imagine what he could have said to please them that would have been even mildly credible.. 

And so in a reset of interest rate, easy money thinking, nearly everything got sold. 

Stocks took a breath-taking dive. 

They managed to finish on the charts where they needed to finish. 

It took on the characteristics of a liquidity event.

Gold miners seemed to fare a little better than silver miners, but most were sold.

I made money today in my trading account, despite some truly awesome and sudden swings in value during the day, up and down. 

I did take down my stock index short positions today. 

Let's see how the Non-Farm Payrolls report comes out tomorrow. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Long Time Coming - Stocks Drop Hard Led by Big Cap Tech

 

This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle.

Rust Cohle, True Detective 

 

"It is a far, far better thing to have a firm anchor in nonsense than to put out on the troubled seas of thought." 

John Kenneth Galbraith 

 

"You are the very cause of your ignorance, yourselves. You put away the light, yourselves; you first pluck out both your own eyes, yourselves; and after that other men’s too, so that the blind may lead the blind, until you both fall into the pit.” 

Thomas More

 

"Foolishness has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves. In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus 

 

Stocks slumped today, with the selling gaining some momentum in the afternoon. 

It was clearly a 'risk off' consideration. 

The VIX got some legs higher. 

Gold and silver were pushed lower once again, and the miners could not provide any leadership. 

The dollar moved sideways. there will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Spring - Gold and Silver Snap Back, Stocks Dip

 

After a deep overnight spike lower in the precious metals futures, designed to run the stops and skin the spec long out, gold and silver managed to snap back in the NY trading hours.

Early this morning I was telling some guys to look for the big cap miners and the silver fliers to lead the way higher ahead of the bullion futures if we were going to get a reversal, or at least a relief rally.

And that is what happened. 

I did short the broader stock index, but only to provide a little hedge for the stock exposure in new miner longs taken on yesterday afternoon.  

But that worked too, in its own right, as a little air from yesterday's moon launch leaked out.

While March may be a potentially risky month for stocks, overall the climate for equities is still bubble friendly.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday. 

I think the wiseguys were covering their bullion shorts, and even covering shorts and going long into some of the miners.

Even quality names with fairly strong 3-4% dividends were crushed in this take down of the bullion.  We were seeing price levels going back quite a while to multi-year lows on the charts.

The bullion bear raid freed up a quite a bit of gold from the ETFs, which will help to relieve the pressure on physical in London and Asia. 

Look for this kind of wash and rinse to repeat, as the gold pool continues to deteriorate.  And surprisingly enough, silver seems to be getting in on this action.

JPM is sitting on a major silver hoard.  Otherwise there are no central bank holdings of silver to speak of, to be deployed on leases to help out the bullion banks.

And while it was nice to make a gain on both ends, this was the trade for the day.

Let's see how we get past the Payrolls and finish the week, and try to determine if we have a practical bottom here after these antics, or not. 

It is tough to see a coherent pattern on the daily gold chart.

On the silver weekly chart, however, the W bottom is still holding strong and survived a backtest.

If it works the price objective is in the high 30's.  I have marked it on the chart.

But there are some very big 'ifs' in there.   

And these are some very lightly regulated, almost verging on lawless, markets.   We might have to cut Warren and Sanders some political slack if we want to see genuine financial reform.   Gensler *might* be up for it, but I am not optimistic.  And Biden is from the corporate wing of his party.

Trump and his crew were never going to reform anything.  They didn't want to stop the soft corruption and crony capitalism— they wanted to private label it.

Genuine change and reform is going to be a long time coming, especially as long as our political system is mired in deep pools of dark money.

Let's see if the silver rocket can achieve liftoff, before we look for escape velocity.  But it might be impressive.

Even though most of our yard is still covered in fairly deep snow, in the warmer areas around the house daffodils are rising, and crocuses and snowdrops are almost ready to bloom.

Change is coming, if but slowly, and then all at once.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

A Lenten Meditation - Walk Humbly With Your God

 

If we should desire to make some worthy offering and useful sacrifice for Lent, let us give up our pride and our anger and fears driven by greed and selfishness.

"He has shown you all what is good.
And what else does the Lord require of you
But to do justice,
To love mercy,
And to walk humbly with your God?"

Micah 6:8 

"Cheerfulness strengthens the heart and makes us persevere in a good life.  Excessive sadness seldom springs from any other source than pride.

For my part, when I find someone securely confident in themselves and without fear, I give them up for lost. "

Philip Neri

 

"It was pride that changed angels into devils; and it is humility that makes men angels.  There never has been, and never can be, and there never shall be any sin without pride.” 

Augustine of Hippo

 

"The most powerful weapon to stand against the devil is humility.  For, as he does not know at all how to employ it, so he does not know how to defeat it."

Vincent de Paul 

 

"The humble live in continuous peace, while in the hearts of the proud are envy and frequent anger."

Thomas à Kempis

 

"Take up my yoke and learn from Me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls."

Matthew 11:29

 

Jesus, Lord, gentle and humble of heart,
From the desire of being esteemed, deliver me.
From the desire of being loved, deliver me.
From the desire of being extolled, deliver me.
From the desire of being honored, deliver me.
From the desire of being praised, deliver me.
From the desire of being preferred to others, deliver me.
From the desire of being consulted, deliver me.
From the desire of being approved, deliver me.
From the fear of being humiliated, deliver me.
From the fear of being despised, deliver me.
From the fear of suffering rebukes, deliver me.
From the fear of being calumniated, deliver me.
From the fear of being forgotten, deliver me.
From the fear of being ridiculed, deliver me.
From the fear of being wronged, deliver me.
From the fear of being suspected, deliver me.

That others may be loved more than I, grant me the grace to desire it.
That others may be esteemed more than I, grant me the grace to desire it.
That, in the opinion of the world, grant me the grace to desire it.
others may increase and I may decrease, grant me the grace to desire it.
That others may be chosen and I set aside, grant me the grace to desire it.
That others may be praised and I unnoticed, grant me the grace to desire it.
That others may be preferred to me in everything, grant me the grace to desire it.
That others may become holier than I, provided that I may become as holy as I should, Lord, grant me the grace to desire it.