Gold Is In a 'Flight To Safety' - Cup and Handle?

Maybe not so much in the US where the people are still largely unaware of most global financial events and currencies, and certainly of the historical role of gold.

But the strong upward correlation of the US Dollar and Gold of late are evidence of a strong 'flight to safety' trade.

In a flight to safety the price of gold bullion would likely lead silver and the miners. If at some point silver can pick up the baton and run higher, then we might think a proper bottom has been set and a new bull leg could be forming.

Speaking of that, as I have noted previously, gold *might* be forming a rounded or cup and handle bottom.  I am watching it forming on the gold chart although I have not yet marked it explicitly.

We have not seen many chart formations come to fruition because of the relentless capping of the prices with synthetic gold.

Gold Price Change Since 2000 in Various Global Currencies

Still Digging Out But Comfortable and Safe

We got clobbered by the Northeastern US snowstorm.  The snow itself was about 25 inches, and was not all that wet which is good.   I hear from friends and family that Virginia and Maryland got it much worse.

But the drifting was rather impressive here in the hills to say the least.  And this is from someone who grew up in the lake effect snowbelt on the shores of Lake Erie.  Three to four foot drifts ran across the yard front and back, and of course literally buried the cars and the better part of the driveway.

But although we were ready for it, we never lost power, so thanks be to God for that.

My poor little snowblower was chugging its 22 year old Tecumseh engine's heart out, but it did the job.  I probably should get a new one with a bigger front scoop, but this one still starts first try and runs like a champ, and gets the job done.  Some of the newer ones seem a little 'tinny' by comparison.

We dug ourselves out, and helped an elderly neighbor get cleared out as well, and I am beat.  The most formidable barriers were the four feet high compacted snow hillocks at the street from the plows.

And of course we cleared a spot in the backyard for the Shih Tzu who is now mobile, although still a bit wobbly.

Now I have to take some people various places. The trains are not running here yet, and still life goes on.

So here are a few early charts.  I have also included an economic event calendar, and highlighted the 4Q GDP advance number and the FOMC rate decision.

See you tomorrow.

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals in 2015 Rise to 91% of Annual World Gold Production

The situation is nicely captured in these two simple charts.

The strains on supply are obvious, although it does take quite a bit of work to estimate the shrinkage of the 'gold float' of available supply.

Nothing here that could not be remedied by higher prices, if they were simply allowed to rise in reponse to physical tightness.

Gold is trading with an unusual duality:  as a synthetic derivative like those associated with the highly leverage financial paper markets , and as a commodity susceptiable to physical supply and demand.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Hearts of Darkness

Gold and silver were trading a bit weakly most of the day, as the dollar rallied higher as shown in the third chart below.

But they held their own, even against a rally in equities that had all the appearances of another technical bounce that was able to accelerate a bit into the close on light volumes.

There were a couple spotty deliveries and a little warehouse movement with the precious metals at The Bucket Shop.

There was intraday commentary about the markets and the lack of reform thereof here.

Let's see if anything develops next week.  So far its been pretty much status quo the New American Century and its currency wars.

For those who asked, the family dog is doing much better thanks to a trio of pills, eyedrops, and some tender loving care.  She even toddled off her little dog bed and managed to see what we were having for dinner, first time in over a week.  She didn't get anything, of course, but she likes to keep herself informed.  And she did dine very well on fresh boiled rice and poached chicken, our 'go to' doggy sickness comfort food.

Bonne nuit et bonne chance.

And have a pleasant weekend.