30 August 2018

Nomi Prins: Central Banks' Policy Errors and the Bubbles and Busts That Follow - Currency Resets


"Central banks and institutions like the IMF and the World Bank are overstepping the boundaries of their mandates by using the flow of money to control global markets and dictate economic policy both at the domestic and global level. These public institutions have become so dependent on funding from private banking and the revolving door between the two worlds is so smooth that public and private banks are effectively working toward the same goals.

A crash could prove to be President Trump’s worst legacy. Not only is he— and the Fed he’s helping to create— not paying attention to the alarm bells (ignored by the last iteration of the Fed as well), but he’s ensured that none of his appointees will either.

After campaigning hard against the ills of global finance in the 2016 election campaign and promising a modern era Glass-Steagall Act to separate bank deposits from the more speculative activities on Wall Street, Trump's policy reversals and appointees leave our economy more exposed than ever. When politicians and regulators are asleep at the wheel, it’s the rest of us who will suffer sooner or later. Because of the collusion that’s gone on and continues to go on among the world’s main central banks, that problem is now an international one."

Nomi Prins

Although it is a little dated, this talk by Nomi Prins waa brought to mind by the current situation in the US financial markets.

I was also struck by Grant Williams' recent interview with William White about the descending spiral in which the central banks seem to be caught in continuing to prop up financial asset prices out of fear of perturbing the Frankenstein banking system that they created over the past twenty years.

And it is almost astonishing that the hedge fund and managed money crowd are now holding short positions against the risk safe havens of 10Yr Treasuries, VIX and Gold are at near term or record highs.

I am not going to be forecasting a crash, at least not yet.  And even when the time comes, all one can do is sound an alarm when the conditions seem to indicate that low probability event may be at a greater chance than normal,

But what I am saying now is that risk seems to be currently mispriced, at an extreme even compared to recent history, and  that the speculators appear to be reliant, once again, on a confidence in the Fed to bail the moneyed interests out when something awful happens.  At the expense of the unknowing public, it should be added, as has been their custom.

There is a glimmer of organic recovery in the recent signs of life in the velocity of M2, which has halted its breath-taking descent since the crisis. 

But it remains that so much money has been squandered on a fortunate few of the central bank's constituency, and in relatively unproductive ventures  This has accomplished little except increasing wealth inequality and distorting the real economy, leaving it in a weakened state for the next financial crisis.

So it does seem proper to put forward a leveraged risk warning.   Now may be an opportunity to take some shelter from the excesses of ideological folly and the unrestrained greed that feeds it.





29 August 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Living the Dream - Same As It Ever Was


"The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small.  It is nearly nil.  Perhaps this is inherent.  In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live.  To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it.  So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent.  The foolish thus have the field to themselves.  None rebukes them...

It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929


"What is good?  All that enhances the feeling of power, the Will to Power, and the power itself in man.  What is bad?  All that proceeds from weakness.  What is happiness?  The feeling that power is increasing— that resistance has been overcome.  Not contentment, but more power;  not peace at any price, but war;  not virtue, but competence. The first principle of our humanism is that the weak and the failures shall perish.   And they ought to be helped to perish."

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Antichrist


"It is always the soul that dies first, even if it's departure goes unnoticed. And it always carries the body along with it... Man is nourished by the invisible, man is nourished by that which is beyond the personal. He dies from preferring the opposite."

Jacques Lusseyran, Poetry at Buchenwald


"Those who are at present so eager to be reconciled with the world at any price must take care not to be reconciled with it under this particular aspect: as the nest of The Unspeakable. This is what too few are willing to see... Be human in this most inhuman of ages; guard the image of man for it is the image of God."

Thomas Merton, Raids on The Unspeakable

Stocks soared to new highs today.

On light volumes.

Disproportionately led by big cap darlings such as Amazon and the rest of the new era big cap techs crowd.

Come on in.  The water's fine.  Everyone is making money but you.  Get some.

Gold and silver rose a little on Dollar weakness.

You are not one of the elite, the .1%, except in your own misplaced aspirations, and maybe delusions of grandeur. To the power of darkness you are prey, and your purpose is to be devoured.

I know, like so many others who have seen and who have said so to me, that our society, which is based on greed and the self, is becoming coarse. And the hearts of many have grown cold, and harsh. It will get worse before it gets better. But as Dostoevsky said, 'If they drive God from the earth, we shall shelter Him underground.'

Besides, who can resist the opportunity to read and write poetry, make music, love beauty, even in  times of plague of the human spirit.

Have a pleasant evening.








28 August 2018

Donna Brazile Says that Even the Democratic Party Reforms Are Without Substance


And here we thought that only their 'we feel your pain' policies are empty platitudes, without substance, as they continually calibrated back to their corporate donors who keep stuffing the political establishment's pockets of both parties, who intend to keep 'setting the menus' for the voters' choices.

Thank you for clarifying the priorities of the Democratic Party establishment as it reforms itself, Donna.

This in the video below was my take as well.  I was incredulous at the reveal.  God bless the inexhaustible arrogance of the power elite.

Same as it ever was.




Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Same As It Ever Was


"The moving moon went up the sky,
And nowhere did abide;
Softly she was going up,
And a star or two beside...

Like one that on a lonesome road
Doth walk in fear and dread,
And having once turned round walks on,
And turns no more his head,
Because he knows a frightful fiend
Doth close behind him tread."

Samuel Taylor Coleridge, The Ancient Mariner


"The world is a comedy to those that think, a tragedy to those who feel."

Horace Walpole, In a Letter, 1770

Today was a precious metals option expiration on the Comex.

Both gold and silver took a bit of a hit, as the dollar was largely unchanged.

Stocks went sideways.

The conversations about the economy and the political situation went sideways as well.

As a reminder, we are going to have a three day weekend here in the States, in honor of Labor Day.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in God abide in love, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.




27 August 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Probabilities and Possibilities, and the Wisdom To Know the Difference


"Most men of business think that 'Anyhow this system will probably last my time. It has gone on a long time, and is likely to go on still'...  Life is a school of probability."

Walter Bagehot


"When he was falsely accused by the chief priests and the elders, he gave no answer. Then Pilate asked him, ‘Don’t you hear the testimony they are bringing against you?’  But he made no reply, saying not even a single word, to the great amazement of the governor."

Matthew 27:12-14

Trump announced that his team has consummated a new trade deal with Mexico today, to replace NAFTA.   One has to give him much credit for this, especially since NAFTA was so firmly embedded in the minds of the Beltway denizens and plutocrats all.

It is not wayward voters that have enabled Trump.  It is due to the self-serving political establishment that has ignored, for so many years, the plight of the working class in this country.  They have sacrificed it to their own gods of globalization, and the marketplace, and the supreme arrogance of their self-appointed meritocracy.

Stocks were rallying on the news, and struck new highs.

Gold and silver also rallied on fresh dollar weakness.

There will be a silver option expiration tomorrow on the Comex.

I have included charts that show the distribution of trading activity for gold and silver in the Comex futures.  This allows you to see that September is an important contract for silver, but not for gold.

It is hard to believe that the first anniversary of the passing of 'the queen' is coming up this Friday.  I will be placing a bouquet of red roses with one white one on her grave.   Every good thing I ever had in life came from her.  She brought calm to a wild spirit, and gentled his condition, and, almost against his will, brought peace and joy to his heart.  And wherever she found darkness, she brought light.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God. And God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.