SP 500 and NDX Futures Charts - Rally Around the Banks Boys

US equities rallied today for no particular reason, except perhaps that nothing 'bad' had happened over the holiday weekend.

Bubbles will give her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony tomorrow to the Congress.

Have a pleasant evening.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Another Gold Withdrawal From Sprott

There was another redemption of gold from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, of about 6,150 ounces, with a commensurate reduction in units since the last time I updated this chart near the end of June.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Poised on a Knife's Edge

The World Cup final is on Sunday, and the punters have Germany and Argentina as fairly even odds with a bit of an edge to the Germans.  I would call it pretty even, especially since it is only one game, and a typically low scoring one at that which can turn on a few events and an emotional tide.

Speaking of too close to call, gold and silver turned in a satisfactory week's performance, and are on the verge of breakouts.

We have been here before. Let's see if they can find firmer ground and sprint a little, or will we continue this slow slog through the marshlands of international monetary push and pull.

The metals bears have grown fairly complacent, and their talking trash is running high.  If gold and silver can break and run, it would be quite the change in trend and in sentiment.

I am holding a good sized gold position since the latest selling bottom, and am back into silver. My long term positions never change.

The World Cup will not be the only action in Brazil, as the BRICs will be having their annual meeting there next week.

See you Sunday evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pivotal Week Ahead - Mortgage Slump

As you can see on the charts we have symmetrical triangles on the big stock charts.

It looks like next week will be a pivotal week for US equities.

There will be more in the way of economics news and earnings, and I believe that Janet Yellen will be doing her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.

 

There was some analysis today that most cash home purchases in the US can be attributed to buying by Wall Street and Chinese investors looking to expatriate their newly found wealth. 

 

Mortgage originations from Wells Fargo are show in the first chart below.

 

 And as you know I will be keeping an eye on some key international developments and other potential outliers.

I held off putting any straight up stock positions on, although the emotional side was itching to short the gross complacency.

 

 I'll wait for a clearer signal from the charts, and a bigger trend change perhaps.  One can become tired of these short term wash and rinse cycles.

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

 

 

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Watch Silver

“The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.”

G.K. Chesterton

The precious metals had an interesting pop this morning on equity weakness, but like most light volume sleepy days in Summer that did not last.

Gold had an interesting spike up to about 1344, but I am watching silver for any clues on which way the metals are heading, and so far silver is playing rope-a-dope on any pullbacks, hanging on to 21.

There was some movement in the silver warehouses, with CNT providing the flow.

If we do get any kind of metals breakout I think it will happen after the 16th towards the latter part of the month.

But it has been a long time coming if it does.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Stutter Step

Stocks dumped today then came back in the afternoon.  That is called a 'stutter step' in US football.

This is why I do not like to short a dull market, except in quick advantageous hits, widely interspersed.

We are in a symmetrical triangle on the NDX 100, and we will need to go with whatever way it breaks.  Don't ask me which way it will because I do not know. 

VIX ticked up today. Follow through is everything.

Eyes on late July.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Some Good News For a Lazy Summer Afternoon

This is the good news for the day.

Your emptiness may be filled, your fears and hatreds extinguished, your yearnings satisfied, your loneliness banished, your tears dried, your weariness relieved.

This is no vain request, this is no solicitation, this is no new fashion or fad, no popular philosophy among many.

It is the most real thing that you may have, the only substantial and lasting part of an otherwise contingent and passing reality, here today and gone tomorrow.  As the planets grow cold and the stars burn out, nothing else remains.  That is true value.

This is the truth that has been hidden from those who think themselves learned and wise, lost in their frenzy of pride and fear. It is hidden from those whose love has grown cold and hearts become hard because of the increase in wickedness and the prevalence of greed.

It is given freely to those who would be His, gentle and humble in heart. Those on the way who stumble along and fall now and then, following His call as best they can, like little children.

The real substance and purpose of life cannot be apprehended by our minds alone. But we can see what is missing, and feel its loss.  And in this God calls to us, and denies no one who answers with an open heart. We forge our own chains, well hardened by anger and pride, and grow familiar with them. In serving none but ourselves, we vainly think ourselves free in our willfulness. We make our own hell and firmly lock the door to it, from the inside.

You have been called.  Find your calling in His will, and a willingness to serve.

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him. We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now. We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

There is an inward world, which none see but those who belong to it.

God beholds you. He calls you by your name. He sees you and understands you as He made you. He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses. He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow. He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations. He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms. He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears. He looks tenderly upon you. He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing. You do not love yourself better than He loves you.

You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission -- I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons. He has not created me for naught.

I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him. If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.

He does nothing in vain. He knows what He is about.

He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers. He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me -- still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are--sinners attempting great things. Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

Fear not that thy life shall come to an end, but rather that it shall never have had a beginning.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.

Then in His mercy may He give us safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at last.”

John Henry Newman

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold Pops Back, Economy Falters

"True bravery is always an act of love, of family and friends, of truth, duty, and honor. To stand and face the unknown requires that we care for something more than ourselves. There is no greater act than to move forward with our heart while our mind tells us to flee."

Much as I would like to serve up some legendary comments about the intense action in the precious metals markets today, the fact of the matter is that not much happened. Well, at least as far as the markets are concerned. I enjoyed working in the yard outside although the heat was a bit oppressive.

The claiming action in the Comex yesterday was minimal, and the warehouses were fairly quiet, although the ins and outs in the CNT silver warehouse still serve to impress a bit.

The metals popped higher led by gold which poked its nose over 1330 for a little while, seemingly off the FOMC minutes which really did not say much of anything new. The Fed will continue to taper until QE ends in October. And the unspoken 'unless' in that is 'unless something happens.'

They can keep rolling the bonds and interest over, and continue to expand their Balance Sheet. I suspect that they have bought so many Treasuries that they risk distorting the repos market, which is one reason why the taper is in place.

But the dollar dropped, and so gold popped.

Let's see how earnings continue to come in. We might see a little more action in mid-July as the BRICs gather, but as noted before, these big changes tend to happen very slowly, and then out of nowhere, all in a rush.

There are plenty of jobs, crap jobs at minimal wages. Political soft corruption prevails, and the lack of direction in the country towards big infrastructure projects is appalling. The US should be building major hubs of renewable power generation distributed by an upgraded and resilient power grid. New bridges and railways, harbor improvements and productivity enhancements spurring employment and demand would be a welcome development.

But this is not to be. The government is in the hands of the monied interests, and the printing being done by the Fed is directed into the unreformed private financial machine that strips assets, and builds little or nothing. Wall Street is truly a crooked casino, largely consumed with taxing the real economy with rigged speculation.

These are the dog days of Summer.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bow Wow

Today was another dull day, with a dead cat bounce off the lows of the past couple of days.

Tomorrow will tell us if this is a real rally back, or just reflexive dip buying.

The FOMC minutes were the big tickle today, showing that the Fed will stay on a steady taper pace to end QE in October.

Some of the Fed members noticed that the markets seem 'complacent.'

Wow. What a surprise. Floating higher on a bubble of easy money, hand delivered to some.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The 'Independent Fed' - Deutschland vs Brasilien

Gold and silver were hit by a trailing stop boogie woogie this morning, a half feeble effort to shake out the long who are running their stop loss orders a bit close.  These sorts of things do not bother us because we have an intermediate to longer term investment horizon, right?  lol.

Otherwise gold and silver finished largely unchanged on the day.

Much more interesting than this lazy Summer trade is the World Cup game in progress, with Germany dominating Brazil, 5-0.   The Germans unleashed a four goal torrent in a six minute period of the first half.  I thought one of the goals was a replay.   Brazil has not allowed five goals in an entire World Cup series since 1998. 

Well you know what they say, lucky in the World Cup, unlucky in holding on to your gold reserves.

We *might* see some precious metals action in the latter part of July in the metals, based on some things the BRICs may be doing and some derivatives related events, but I am not overly excited about it yet.  The Fed has the markets in hand it appears. 

In response to a couple of emails I would like to take a minute to remind you all again that the Federal Reserve system is owned by their member banks, who receive a 6% dividend for their shares from the profits that the NY Fed makes on its market operations.

It is not a government entity.  It operates under the license of the law passed in 1913.   The Fed has not always existed, and the central bank in the US has an interesting and sometimes controversial history.

Although the government has some oversight, which the Fed peddles hard on their own websites, and can take measures if they have the will for it,  the Fed is a private institution with a significant amount of its market power concentrated in New York.  The Fed has its own level of 'opaqueness and independence.'   One can debate whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, or just a thing.  But I did want to reiterate that popular misconception.

For now this is the dog days of Summer, and a good time to do work outside, and to spend time with your family if you can.

We had a quick lesson in apartments for rent in Brooklyn, as our number one son will be starting graduate school in the NYC area this Fall. The rents and house prices in the NYC metro area, including Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Jersey area around Hoboken and Jersey City, are in a barking mad real estate bubble related to the rebound in the financial sector jobs and profits.

I am hearing of many places being purchased and then left vacant as 'stores of wealth' by overseas investment money.  And this is not even as intense as the things I am hearing from friends in London.   House prices in the NYC are back to pre-financial collapse levels and beyond in many areas according to Zillow. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Alcoa Kicks Off the 2Q Earnings Season

After the bell Alcoa beat earnings and revenues to kick off the second quarter earnings season.

It was interesting to hear Matt Miller and Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg TV extrapolating a strong year for the SP 500 stocks off this one result.  And it was funny to see Julie Hyman correct Barry's mistake about the increase in Alcoa's revenues, which were flat year over year.  She is often a breath of fresh air in the fog of endless jawboning.

I did take off the short position I had put on US equities on Thursday. It was a fairly cynical bet on a standard 'wash and rinse.' Now we can see if anything more significant develops, but for now its the same old, same old.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Cap and Consolidate

Not much happened in the gold and silver markets, with both closing almost unchanged.

This was a very dull trade, with more nonsensical things being said in the media.

Dave from Denver reports that there were some gyrations in the JNUG junior miners ETF into the close:

"At 3:59 p.m. 60,000 shares of JNUG trade and drop the price from a high of $27.05 to a low of $26.43 - all within 60 seconds. Then at the close, 30,000 shares trade and cause JNUG to bounce back up to its close of $27.06.

4.6% of JNUG's total volume traded today in the last 120 seconds. Over the entire course of the trading day - 6.5 hours - JNUG averaged 4,974 share per minute. In the last two minutes it averaged 45,000 share per minute."

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Dog Days

 

An exceptionally boring day as the US markets reopened after the three day holiday weekend.

Stocks were weak for most of the day, but rebounded slightly off the lows into the close.

These are the real dog days of summer, and volumes are lackluster to say the least.

Have a pleasant evening.

Moyers: The Truth Versus Washington DC's Propaganda Machines

Related: Why I Left 60 Minutes by Charles Lewis

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Another Dog that Did Not Bark - Shanghai Silver

The 'headline numbers' for the Non-Farm Payrolls came in better than expected.

Gold and silver held their places well, and especially silver which is now the lead sled dog for my thinking.  This is because July is an active month on the Comex of course but also because of the levels of physical inventory, both here and abroad.

 

Shanghai silver bullion inventory levels fall to lowest on record.

I took a look at the payroll numbers and did not see anything brazenly out of line. Except of course that it is not the number of jobs being added that is important, unless you are some metric toting bureaucrat trying to hit some number as a symbolic victory.

No, it is all about the quality of the jobs, especially the median wage and personal income, as it feeds into and sustains the kind of mass organic buying that boosts and sustains aggregate demand.

I noticed that some of the Neo-Keynesians have been launching their flaccid attacks on the evil Austrians.

Now, as you may know, I am certainly no Austrian economist and have quite a bit of respect for Keynes himself, if not for all of his acolytes.  But the way in which the Neo-Keynesians are rallying around their phony recovery flag causes me to suspect that things behind the curtain are not going well, and that they are afraid. Not that this makes the Austrians right with their tough economic love for others less worthy, especially those of the lower classes as they would define them.  There are not too many of the common people heading for Galtopia, except as servants and cogs in the wheels of the ubermenschen.

Obviously setting public policy principles top down and then doing things to achieve them directly would be the thing to do, and dropping this newest canard that objective scientific economic principles dictate anything except what their puppeteers wish them to say. But alas, that all gets lost in the noise and the humbug of modern thinking, especially the thought for pay so prevalent these days amongst the disgraced professions.

July may still prove to be an interesting month, and I suspect that before the year end we will see some pet economic theories in addition to the efficient market hypothesis shot to hell.

For the Yanks, have a pleasant holiday weekend.

And for the rest of the world, please try to carry on.

See you Sunday evening. Remember the poor souls who have none to love or care for them. You may some day find yourself amongst them. If not in this world, then perhaps in the next.   As Jack Kerouac said,  'they build their own hells.'  And they are locked tight, from the inside.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Dow 17,000

The Dow Industrial Average closed over 17,000 for the first time today.

The markets are now closed, in early observance of the 4th of July national holiday.

The equity markets are becoming overextended here. They more become a little more overextended before this nonsense is done, and then we will see a pullback of sorts. Wash and rinse.

Have a nice holiday weekend.

PBS Frontline: To Catch a Trader

“The disposition to admire, and almost to worship, the rich and the powerful, and to despise, or, at least to neglect, persons of poor and mean condition is the great and most universal cause of the corruption of our moral sentiments.”

Adam Smith

Got inside trading information?

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Got a privileged position of trust in society or even better, in the game itself?

Then buddy, you got edge.

Related: The Taming of the Trading Monster