Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Long Can Phase II of the Gold Pool Be Sustained

"The London Gold Pool was the pooling of gold reserves by a group of eight central banks in the United States and seven European countries that agreed on 1 November 1961 to cooperate in maintaining the Bretton Woods System of fixed-rate convertible currencies and defending a gold price of US$35 per troy ounce by interventions in the London gold market.

The central banks coordinated concerted methods of gold sales to balance spikes in the market price of gold as determined by the London morning gold fixing while buying gold on price weaknesses. The United States provided 50% of the required gold supply for sale. The price controls were successful for six years until the system became no longer workable. The pegged price of gold was too low and runs on gold, the British pound, and the US dollar occurred and France decided to withdraw from the pool. The London Gold Pool collapsed in March 1968.

The London Gold Pool controls were followed with an effort to suppress the gold price with a two-tier system of official exchange and open market transactions, but this gold window collapsed in 1971 with the Nixon Shock, and resulted in the onset of the gold bull market which saw the price of gold appreciate rapidly to US$850 in 1980."

Wikipedia, The London Gold Pool

The first chart below this evening compares the year to date performance of the SP 500, the NDX, the Russell 2000, and Gold.

If you have not noticed, gold and silver have been 'pegged' just below 1300 and 20 respectively. Someone asked me 'why these particular levels' the other day. I would hope the reason why they are capping the metals in the first place would be fairly self explanatory by now.  

Who are 'they?'  Some of the Western central banks have obviously formed a 'gold pool' through which they are attempting to manage the relationships of a number of currencies and economic factors affecting global trade, including the natural money of gold and silver.  This is not my opinion.  Central Banks hold gold in their reserves, despite what some monetary theorists might otherwise say.  The Banks understand the long history of money, in its ebb and flow.

As you may recall, Phase I of the current Gold Pool ended with the collapse of the Washington Agreement,  which was an attempt to prop up a failing arrangement often called Bretton Woods II.  This failure became unmistakable with the change in the central bank behavior towards gold, from net sellers to net buyers, with the revolt of the BRICs. 

We are in Phase II now, which is a loose confederation of Western banks being led by the Fed and the Bank of England who are attempting to maintain the status quo and US Dollar hegemony.

But the Western banks are running a bit of a failing game with the Dollar, as it has already lasted well beyond its prime. You really cannot base global transactions for real goods on a piece of paper that one country creates at will for its own domestic and foreign policy conveniences.

Not unless you are willing to sacrifice your own autonomy. Its a similar to why the euro must eventually fail, because it is a single currency across a non-cohesive political union. 

It is clear that China and Russia and parts of the Mideast are not on board with the NY London Gold Pool, and India is struggling against its own people.  The US is flexing its muscles, but that sort of thing tends to become unsustainably expensive, even for those who own a printing press, but do not own the printing press.

The Fed and its crony central banks are in a bit of a panic, and they are attempting to hold the line in the metals, while they try and manage the unfolding set of economic crises which they have created, and which are hardly yet resolved.  They have sold out the middle class for their Banks, and now must now sit down to a banquet of consequences, which they are loathe to do.  They will throw institution after institution to the wolves before that if they are given the latitude.

The Gold Pool would like to strike a lower level, but as we have seen that is a bit problematic, because the vaults of the West were being emptied fairly steadily, and the miners will be having even more trouble staying in business at lower prices.  And there remains a stubborn demand for the metals from the peoples of the Mideast and Asia, despite the efforts of the neo-liberals to bring them to heel with colour revolutions and sanctions.

I cannot predict exactly when this current cartel will fail, as the London Gold Pool fell when France withdrew for example.  It is hard to predict an exogenous decision or shock.   But there are no lack of guesses.  Guessing is not a practical investment strategy, but it works in selling advice.

We will most likely see quite a cat fight amongst Zurich, Frankfurt, Shanghai and London for the next phase of the gold trading market.  The foundations for Phase III, in which gold starts to trade more freely, have already been laid.  And of course New York may attempt to rule the new gold trade, on the basis that possession is nine-tenths of the law.  That ought to go over like a lead balloon with those nations whose sovereign metals are held hostage.

"As a reaction to the temporary closure of the London gold market in March 1968 and the resulting instability of the gold markets and the financial systems in general, Swiss banks acted immediately to minimize effects on the Swiss banking system and its currency by establishing a gold trading organization, the Zürich Gold Pool, which helped in establishing Zürich as a major trading location for gold."

When did the NY Fed say that they might be inclined to return Germany's gold?  That bit of whimsy may provide us with an outer bound for a resolution of phase II of the currency war. Although the Fed is most likely being unrealistic as usual in their forecasting.

Perhaps we may see some better hints of it through the fog of deception as the time approaches.   But it seems likely that when the new gold pool starts to crumble, the price levels may move with a bit of a bang.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Complacency

"Recorded history is largely an account of the crimes and disasters committed by banal little men at the levers of imperial machines."

Edward Abbey

And among the moderns, bankers are perhaps the least useful, and certainly the most self-delusionally banal.

At least the politicians know a few good jokes, often quotes from their own bios and lists of accomplishments.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - What If?

There was intraday commentary on the dollar and gold/silver here.

This being the inactive month of May, nothing of note occurred on the Comex metals or the gold warehouses.

I had a few questions about 'confiscation' of precious metals again today, in response to the intraday comment.

It is one thing to recall your own currency, which in the 1930s was based directly on gold, and to a lesser extent silver, in order to devalue it.  And it is another thing to just go out and start confiscating purely private property en masse from a citizenry that is notoriously well-armed, and not favorably disposed to tyranny.

In the 1930s, how many people were actually prosecuted for refusing to hand over their gold?  Answer, one.  And this was a man who took the government to court in order to fight the constitutionality of the executive order.  Most of the gold was in the banks, and in circulation, and it was taken overnight, voila.   People were glad to cooperate because they were desperate, and they viewed these actions as equitable.

What if the government decided to give the weak and disabled a trip to the hospital for sterilization or a mercy death, and the ethnically disfavored train tickets to Nevada for resettlement? And tried to take away your children for re-education by the State?  What would you do then? What do you think would happen? 

What if the dollar was devalued 1000 to 1, and the $2,000,000 you had put aside for your retirement suddenly became $2,000.  What if the government confiscated your savings and gave them to the banks and gave you an IOU in return?  What if a meteor hit London, or the Yellowstone caldera erupted and took out most of the human activity west of the Mississippi?  What if...?

There are precedents for all of the above that make them possible, but life is a school of probabilities.

There are plenty of things worth worrying about.  And it does not hurt to have some contingency plans.  But it is better to focus on the real problems of the day, rather than to distract yourself with the sick pleasure of worrying about phantoms, and things that could be.  Since you cannot do anything about them, it is a form of escape, a way of avoiding the tasks and the issues of the day.  It is the narcotic of melancholy.

Take care of the day, and the years will take care of themselves.  Have a concern for the state of your soul, because one thing I can absolutely predict, without fear of error, is that all of us will one day leave this world, with nothing but our souls as we are.  Have a mind for that.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Off the Lows

Stocks came off their lows in the afternoon.

Keep your eyes on the Russell 2000 for a better idea of the health of the recovery, and of the equity markets. The DJIA is a joke, a diversion for tourists and the media.

Have a pleasant evening.

High Tide for the Dollar: Revenge of the Sith

I have certainly considered this scenario many times, of how the dollar regime might evolve,  and the one discussed below remains one possible outcome.  

There is an intense international discussion going on about the future of the international currency system, and relations in general.  I have referred to this generally as the 'currency wars' for some time. 

Most Americans have yet to notice this, due in no small part to the silence of the mainstream media.   If the US and the BRICs cannot engage in a rapprochement over the future of the international monetary system, and keep pushing a hard line for a US dollar hegemony, then of course the BRICs may pursue those discussions by other means.

One way to do this would be to revalue gold at let's say $10,000 per ounce, and use it to partially back their own currency, or currencies.  Bill Holter does a good job of outlining that in the article excerpted below.  The details of how that one might play out is certainly open to much debate. 

The counter to this is force, which the US has been employing much more aggressively and pre-emptively of late than it otherwise has done in the post-Cold War era. 

I had assigned this somewhat unilateral devaluation of the Dollar to Gold outcome a low probability, thinking that the US and its allies, Britain, Japan, and parts of the EU, would continue supporting each other's currencies and policies of foreign exchange valuations through non-transparent swaps and buying, in a managed devaluation amongst themselves of course. But I thought they would at least open the door to allowing the SDR to be reconstituted with a broader basket of currencies and metals not under NATO control.

The events of late in Ukraine make me wonder if the negotiations have not broken down because the hard liners in the Anglo-American cartel have prevailed over those who might favor accommodation and compromise. When the coup d'état occurred, with the US involvement becoming known, I had one of those 'WTF' moments many of us had when the US made a hard right turn and attacked Iraq, seemingly out of nowhere as a response to 911.   Wow, where did that come from?

Certainly it must be obvious that the neo-cons are back in force in Washington, although the neo-liberal economists in the Obama cabinet are certainly capable of carrying the financial side of that American Century outlook.

This is not to say that Russia and China are in the right, or are 'good.'  They have positions and the Anglo-American financiers have positions.  One can certainly debate the relative merits, but for my own case I wish to try and understand what is happening, so that we may best adjust to it and understand what is happening and why.  

And it would certainly be difficult to give high marks to the Anglo-American elites for taking care of those at home, and managing the domestic infrastructure and prosperity.  As we see so often throughout history, this appears to be the case of an oligarchy versus another oligarchy, as they grow restless within their domains.

Therefore I continue to believe that we will see change, rather than collapse.  Although if I were writing a book, or selling my site for clicks, the temptation for blaring headlines of doom might be stronger.   Things change, and periods of change always invoke dire predictions and phantoms of doom.  

I am more concerned about a union amongst the oligarchs and the rise of a global governance that is anti-human, to be frank.   But even that is most likely an outlier I would like to think.  Of more real concern perhaps are the unsuspecting believers and the gullible who may be proudly riding the gospel of prosperity, and a fascination for the trappings but not the substance of devotion, into the maws of hell, with 'Lord, Lord' on their lips.  But that is another matter for a smaller audience, and a preoccupation for some of us here.

So grab something solid and hang on.  I don't know enough to be able to predict how this will turn out, and  anyone who might be able to do so realizes that the fog of war is descending quickly.   Predictions and guesses are cheap, and will become even more plentiful as things progress.  But knowledge is the coin of the realm.

There could be rough waters ahead, mateys. But one can always hope that cooler and wiser and stronger heads will prevail.  This will play out slowly, until something happens, and then events may being to move rather quickly.  Pray for the best, and prepare for the worst.

"Next Tuesday, Vladimir Putin will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, I believe that the odds are quite high that an energy deal will be announced where Russia will supply China with oil and gas and that infrastructure (pipelines) will also be built to the express exclusion of the dollar. Please understand that this is not a deal where a few million barrels of oil are sent and then get settled for, no, this will be a very long term partnership which is why the infrastructure will be built.

My intent was to explain that China has imported 1,000′s of tons of gold over the last several years and that they (even though their system is very highly leveraged just as ours) have prepared themselves for what is coming.  'What is coming' is that China will have just as many massive defaults as the U.S. will …but with a “small difference.” I believe that China will mark gold up to an arbitrary number of let’s say $10,000 per ounce which will do a number of things. First, this will make China’s holdings worth much much more which can and will be used as collateral to steady their debt markets. This collateral will serve to re liquefy the banks AND back their currency should they wish to (I believe they do).

Another added 'benefit' is that this will expose the fact that the West no longer has any gold. The dollar will go into a spiral because not just 'one lunatic' like Saddam Hussein is proposing to no longer use dollars. No, we are talking about 2 major oil producers and our largest trading partner who may just be the largest economy in the world having eclipsed us. Another little tidbit is that these 3 taken together were for years the absolute arch enemy of the U.S. and now they are forming a unified triad where Russia and Iran can say, 'Hey, you told us not to use dollars anymore, we’re just doing what you’ve told us to do.'  Talk about forming 'policy' without looking 5 seconds into the future, our sanctions would be the definition of this."

Bill Holter, They Don't Need Us, We Need Them

Read the entire article here.

The Most Destructive Bubbles of All: Corporate Profits Amid Private Poverty

"The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy.

Mr. Hoover didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellow’s hands.”

Will Rogers, St. Petersburg Times, Nov 26, 1932


“Much like Herbert Hoover, Barack Obama is a man attempting to realize a stirring new vision of his society without cutting himself free from the dogmas of the past, without accepting the inevitable conflict. Like Hoover, his is bound to fail.”

Kevin Baker, Barack Hoover Obama: The Best and the Brightest Blow it Again, Harper's


"In regards to the price of commodities, the rise of wages operates as simple interest does, the rise of profit operates like compound interest.

Our merchants and masters complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price and lessening the sale of goods. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people.”

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations


“We Americans are not usually thought to be a submissive people, but of course we are. Why else would we allow our country to be destroyed? Why else would we be rewarding its destroyers? Why else would we all — by proxies we have given to greedy corporations and corrupt politicians — be participating in its destruction?

Most of us are still too sane to piss in our own cistern, but we allow others to do so and we reward them for it. We reward them so well, in fact, that those who piss in our cistern are wealthier than the rest of us."

Wendell Berry


“Trickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.”

John Kenneth Galbraith


"Fascism is capitalism plus murder."

Upton Sinclair