Comex Registered Gold Inventories - 'Deliverable Gold' At Current Prices

As someone asked, since hardly anyone is buying gold on the Comex and taking it out, why would be concerned about any inventory levels of deliverable gold?

Indeed, why be concerned about price if it is just all a part of an extended game of liar's poker between speculative interests?

It is almost just a betting parlor now, hence the title The Bucket Shop.

However, that does call into question its role in price discovery in the global trade around the world, much if not most of which is physical.

And that price discovery in London at the LBMA is asserted almost every day in one of the clearest patterns of price manipulation that one might even try to imagine.

As I have said on a number of occasions, I am not looking for a 'default' in NY.   How can one default when forced settlements in cash can be easily accomodated at the Fed's window at any time?

No, the first cracks in the facade of the modern Gold Pool will appear in a key node of the physical market, most likely in London or Switzerland as fails to deliver.  Perhaps even in Shanghai.

However, like the ebbing of the tide, a ready supply of gold for delivery will likely start disappearing from the shelves around the world at both the wholesale and retail level as the vortex of actual delivery in Asia consumes the ready supply at current prices.  The cost of 'borrowing' gold will increase dramatically as the risk of a counterparty failure to return the bullion will intensify.

There will be a divergence between the price for immediate delivery of bullion and the paper price in the future, until the discrepancy becomes so obvious that there is a 'run' on the available short term physical supply, and real gold bullion goes to 'none offered' at any price close to the 'price discovery' of the paper markets.  And then there will be a halt, a settling, and a reset.

If the source where you hold your bullion does not offer a guarantee of the bullion itself, rather than the 'value of the bullion' then chances are unacceptably high that you will be force settled in cash prior to a reset of the price substantially higher.

This is what happened in the US in 1933 when the official gold currency in circulation was recalled.   People who had gold stored in the Banks had their monetary gold taken,  a paper payment was received for it at the official price, and then afterwards the price of bullion in US dollars was set 41% higher.  The increase in reserves was used to help prop up the insolvent banking sector.

Although such an action today is less likely since gold is no longer a monetary metal with a claim from the state, nevertheless such an action in a force majeure breakdown in the financial system whereby borrowed and 'shared' gold could not be returned at the current price faces a similar fate.  This is how the failure of MF Global was recently resolved, and I can easily see the same rules applying for a market break in any leveraged system of ownership.

Related:  Why the Federal Government Seized Gold In 1933

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Belabored and Befuddled - 'Error and Repair'

"Andrew Jackson was compelled to fight every inch of the way for the ideals and the policies of the Democratic Republic which was his ideal. An overwhelming proportion of the material power of the Nation was arrayed against him. The great media for the dissemination of information and the molding of public opinion fought him. Haughty and sterile intellectualism opposed him. Musty reaction disapproved him. Hollow and outworn traditionalism shook a trembling finger at him. It seemed sometimes that all were against him— all but the people of the United States."

Franklin D. Roosevelt

The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in much weaker than expected, but the quixotic drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% gives the Fed cover to take a policy action  of 25 basis points, which is exactly what they would like to do at their next meeting on September 16-17.

And I suspect they will, unless the wheels fall off global markets.  They are caught in a vicious cycle of 'error and repair.'

There will be a summary of the economic situation and a press conference with the Lady Yellen afterwards.

The hit on the metals was a bit half-hearted today, considering that China was still on holiday celebrating the end of WW II.  The three day weekend may have put the junior manipulators off their feed a bit.   No telling what those crazy Asians might do on Monday with pet rocks priced too cheaply.

And besides, the metals manipulation is probably getting a bit overdone on the paper leverage side, as demonstrated by the steady drain of bullion out of the Comex warehouses which continues.

I hear that there was a larger drain out of the LBMA which was far more important. But we will have to wait and see about the physical markets next week.

The US will be on holiday on Monday, celebrating 'Labor Day.' It is a quaint holdover from when the nation used to hold honest work in high regard.

The holiday abbreviated economic calendar for next week is included below.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Dog Day Afternoons

The Fed got what they wanted today besides the much weaker than expected jobs report.

The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.1%, largely on the number of people who have been unemployed for so long that they are no longer counted as part of the workforce. Hence the record low 'Labor Participation Rate.'

The Fed is running on its own clock now, and wants to raise rates badly for policy reasons. Stan Lacker alluded to as much today.

And I suspect that unless the wheels fall off the stock markets in the next couple of weeks that is exactly what they will do.

Have a pleasant and long Labor Day weekend.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Fed's Fugue For Tinhorns - Can Do, Can Do

I got the horse right here
The name is Paul Revere
And here's a guy that says that the weather's clear
Can do, can do, this guy says the horse can do
If he says the horse can do, can do, can do.

I tell you Paul Revere
Now this is no bum steer
It's from a handicapper that's real sincere
Can do, can do, this guy says the horse can do.
If he says the horse can do - can do - can do.
Paul Revere. I got the horse right here.

Can do - can do - this guy says the horse can do
If he says the horse can do - can do, can do.

Guys and Dolls, Fugue for Tinhorns

Gold was hit by selling early in the New York trade and stayed there, while silver, which is now in its active month, showed a little more resilience.

Things were remarkably quiet at The Bucket Shop yesterday.

There was intraday commentary about the steady increase in leverage of physical gold over a greater number of paper claims in New York, and most likely in London.  You may read that here.

I do not look for a proper overt default on the Comex.   I also doubt it will be the initial locus of any dislocation in the gold market.   I would look eastward towards London and the physical markets of Asia for that sort of situation to manifest.    Those who are just looking at the US markets are likely to get hit with a world class blindside if something breaks in the gold pool operation.

Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

This report takes on a special significance because the Fed has the itch to raise its benchmark interest rate in its September meeting. They want to get themselves off the zero bound in the worst way because they do not have enough ammunition for the next phase of policy action they will need to take, most likely to correct the asset bubbles that they have created, again, in financial paper.

The commentary on the financial network from the usual suspects was enlightening.

Jeremy Siegel says that the Fed should only look at the unemployment rate tomorrow. It is 5.3% now. The Wombat of Wharton thinks that a drop to 5.2 is good, but a drop to 5.1% would be a clear 'go' signal for the Fed to raise in September, without regard to any other economic data such as number of jobs added, hours worked, Labor Participation, Wages, Demand, etc. Hmm.

The commentary from the institutional carnies like Deutsche Bank's talking head on Bloomberg is that the economic recovery is robust, and he rattled off a long string of reasons why the Fed should raise now because employment and the recovery are so good. Meanwhile Dean Baker sat there listening to this bilious balderdash like someone had just served up some funk beer with refried wiener schnitzel from last week.

The Fed is shooting themselves in the foot if they try to make the case that raising rates is a good idea because the economic recovery is so great that it is time to start worrying about inflation.

No one is going to believe that, except for those whose paychecks depend on their agreement.  And it will be especially hard to maintain that story when the economy craters again, even if they try to blame it all on China, or whatever else is handy.

But they cannot keep delaying it because next year is a Presidential election year and the Fed has a long standing rule to cool it with the monetary policy changes close to key elections, since they are supposed to be 'independent.'

The otherwise widely discredited IMF has served up a 'too soon' caution for the Fed.   It's a no lose derriere covering piece of advice for Madame Lagarde, one of the Valkyries of global wealth destruction.  

Let's see how the Jobs Report comes out. wink wink, nod nod.

I still think that the Fed is going to raise rates before year end, but that they will be doing it between a rock and a hard place, and a race with a devil of their own creation.

Did I mention that we will be seeing another Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow morning?

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

The usual suspects are out there banging the drum for the Fed to hike rates in September today.

Let's see how the Non-Farm Payrolls report comes out tomorrow morning.

The rest of the data today was nothing to cheer about.

I think the Fed might be in a race with the equity markets.    They do not look healthy at all, for all the reasons we have discussed, and mostly been ignored.

The risks will be especially greater in the next eight to ten weeks.

US Financial Markets:  Theater of the Aburd

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold 'Claims Per Ounce' Spikes Back Up to 126:1

The 'claims per ounce of gold' deliverable at current prices has spiked higher once again, to 126:1.

As soon as the 'active month' of August was over at The Bucket Shop, JPM took a chunk of gold back off the registered for delivery roster.   In the silver market JPM is gaining the reputation for a large physical silver hoard, and the role of a 'fireman' to maintain the stability of leverage in supply and demand.

These spikes higher in the ratio of open interest to deliverable bullion at current prices is not something that has happened in the past fifteen years at least.   And neither has the steady increase in the ratio which we have been seeing in the past couple of years.  This is shown in the last chart.

The Financial Times has finally noticed that the price for 'borrowed' gold bullion that is taken to Switzerland for re-refining and then final shipment to Asia for purchase and withdrawal is rising.

These are signs that one might expect to see in a late stage gold pool in which the manipulation of a market has gone too far for too long.   One thing you can say about the financial speculators is that they never know when to quit.   Remember the London Whale?   He never stopped trying to rig the prices until the rest of the professional participants raised a fuss that he was disrupting the entire market!

The clever quislings for the bullion banks will note that an actual default on the Comex is unlikely, and they are right.  It is not really a 'physical delivery' exchange, but is now primarily a betting shop.  There is plenty of gold in the warehouses, if you do not concern yourself with the niceties of property rights.  And claims can be force settled in cash on a declaration of force majeure.  

Heck, as we saw in the case of MFGlobal,  when JPM shoved to the front of the assets allocation line, even receipts for actual physical gold owned outright can be forced settled in cash.   If you hold gold in a registered warehouse or an unallocated account,  then your ownership is philosophically 'conceptual.'

The physical delivery exchanges are in other places, like the LBMA in London and especially the markets of Asia such as the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

And this is where we will see the first signs of a breakdown in the gold price manipulation pool of the bullion banks, first as signs of 'tightness' in the delivery of metals, and then in the initial 'fails to deliver.'

Rising prices will provide relief.  But the pool operators are not shy about pressing and doubling down, in a familiar pattern of overreach.  Remember the eventual demise of 'the London Whale?'

And although it is hard to believe, perhaps rising prices may not be so easily allowed.

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.   

Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it." 

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999

And it might not surprise anyone if it turns out that the wiseguy bullion banks are operating under the 'cover' of some bureaucratic boobs and a policy exercise gone horribly wrong.  It would be like giving a platinum credit card to a gambling addict.  Except you do not think that you ever have to pay the bills when they come due, since you are playing with other people's money.

"I have one other issue I'd like to throw on the table. I hesitate to do it, but let me tell you some of the issues that are involved here. If we are dealing with psychology, then the thermometers one uses to measure it have an effect. I was raising the question on the side with Governor Mullins of what would happen if the Treasury sold a little gold in this market.  (just a little)

There's an interesting question here because if the gold price broke [lower] in that context, the thermometer would not be just a measuring tool. It would basically affect the underlying psychology.

Now, we don't have the 'legal' right to sell gold but I'm just frankly curious about what people's views are on situations of this nature because something unusual is involved in policy here. We're not just going through the standard policy where the money supply is expanding, the economy is expanding, and the Fed tightens. This is a wholly different thing."

Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Minutes from May 18, 1993

Just a little 'perception management' gone horribly wrong, right?   And no one could have seen it coming.