"I was being called to surrender the very citadel of my self. I was completely in the dark. I did not really know what repentance was or what I was required to repent of. It was indeed the turning point of my life. God had brought me to my knees and made me acknowledge my own nothingness, and out of that knowledge I had been reborn. I was no longer the centre of my life, and therefore I could see God in everything." Bede Griffiths
"This is all a bit moot really, because except for the betting parlors it doesn't matter whether the Fed raises 25 basis points or not. You can print money and give it to the banking system and the very wealthy for their personal gambling and asset acquisitions activities all day long.
The system is broken, the real product of the nation has been hijacked by financialization, the international monetary exchange is in chaos, and almost all of the gains are going to the top.
And the Fed and the government are doing virtually nothing to change this."
The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be an sustainable recovery.
And keep the financial system on life support while the rest of the economy languishes, the poor suffer, and the middle class deteriorates is not coherent, except for a narrow band of beneficiaries.
Let us be reminded that the Fed is also a primary regulator of the financial system as well as an interest rate joystick operator.
And the mainstream media and the politicians wonder why the public is not doing what they expect.
"U.S. Census Bureau data out Wednesday underscore just how lousy the recovery has been if you aren't rich.
Looking at eight groups of household income selected by Census, only those whose incomes are already high to begin with have seen improvement since 2006, the last full year of expansion before the recession. Households at the 95th and 90th percentiles had larger earnings through 2014, the latest year for which data are available.
Income for all others was below 2006 levels, indicating they're still clawing their way out of the hole caused by the deepest recession in the post-World War II era."
And this result, after eight years of some of the biggest expansion of a central bank balance sheet in US history!
If you are curious about the additional data on the top right of the spreadsheet, this is just the way in which I am tracking the market reaction to the Sprott offer for an exchange of PHYS for GTU.
As you can see the Sprott offer is almost spot on to a NAV/NAV calculation. There is a slight premium on Price/Price because of the greater discounting of GTU in its market price.
On this I am not accounting for any risks or expenses, merely the nominal market reaction.
The gold/silver ratio remains historically high at 73ish. I suspect that this is because the metals are enjoying a 'flight to safety' more than 'inflation being driven by a robust economy.' But it could be something else.
Given their track record on forecasting I think this is more of a Rorschach test than a reliable guide to the future.
We're in the new normal of high employment, low wages, sluggish growth, and slack inflation.
And we're are doing just fine. Depending on how you define 'we.'
Even though the Bloombergians were later laughing at this, I tend to lean towards Ray Dalio's prognosis.
“I don’t care whether they raise 25 basis points,” Dalio said Wednesday in an interview with Tom Keene and Michael McKee that was broadcast on Bloomberg radio and television. “What scares me, or what worries me, is what the next downturn in the economy looks like, with asset prices where they are and a lesser ability of central banks to ease monetary policy.”
He predicted that returns across asset classes over the next decade will only average 3 percent or 4 percent. Narrower spreads will make it much harder for asset purchases to have a big effect on the market, he said."
This is all a bit moot really, because except for the betting parlors it doesn't matter whether the Fed raises 25 basis points or not. You can print money and give it to the banking system all day long.
The system is broken, the real product of the nation has been hijacked by financialization, the international monetary exchange is in chaos, and almost all of the gains are going to the top. And the Fed and the government are doing virtually nothing to change this.
And the band played on.
Release Date: September 17, 2015
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.
In the light of how the MF Global debacle was sorted out by the courts, and based on a growing body of circumstantial evidence and market indicators, if you are holding your gold bullion 'insurance' in the form of unallocated or opaque holdings, or a hypothecated paper claim in one of the major exchange trading warehouses, you may wish to take measures to safeguard your ownership claims without much delay.
I wrote something overnight, On the LBMA and Their Unallocated Holdings, in which I lay out the case, based on facts and some presumably informed speculation from Jim Rickards, that there is a serious physical shortfall in gold bullion developing that may not resolve as readily as it did in 1999, when the Bank of England presumably bailed out the trading houses.
Commodity backwardation is not all that unusual. But it is somewhat unusual in the precious metals. And in combination with a few other items, it seems worthy of note and some preventative measures.
Koos Jansen notes that gold is now in backwardation in both London and New York.
"Not often in financial markets is the future price of gold is lower than the spot price (live), but lately we’ve witnessed such an event in both the New York and London gold market. This is called backwardation, the opposite of contango.
What causes backwardation and will it increase the price of gold? In my opinion there are two possible scenarios: the market expects the gold price to fall in the future, or there is scarcity now."
Please note that I am not suggesting that you should rush out and take large long positions in gold with the maximum leverage, pile into penny miners hoping for a 'home run'.
I suppose that quite a few will miss this caution since it is not heralded with blaring headlines of imminent doom, but perhaps those who need to hear it will do so. And I am sure that the apologists and the paperati will find their usual ways to dismiss all this, and urge us to ignore all these odd doings in the warehouses. Such are the times.
And I am not ruling out a much larger development behind the scenes with regard to the international monetary regime, that is 'leaking out' from official sources to banking cronies who may act on it ahead of time. But I have no strong indications of that. The IMF seems incapable of resolving the developing monetary crisis because of Anglo-American intransigence.
This is a purely circumstantial case. As was the case that Harry Markopolos presented for years on Bernie Madoff. And it may be wrong, or it may be right and vastly understated. But I think that we have means, motive, and opportunity, and so one may advisably act with caution. And so I have discharged my conscience in not remaining silent while potential trouble looms and the denizens of the markets take care of themselves. It is not so easy a decision to make when you do not have sound evidence because of secrecy and misinformation. And I am sure many will take this, use it as their own, and wrap this in florid headlines and dire predictions of doom.
I suspect at this point that a price correction is still possible as a remedy, but I am not so optimistic to rule out a greater effort to cover it all up that will make things exponentially worse, in the manner of the London Whale and MF Global and LTCM and so many examples of reckless hubris.
There is quite a bit of official interest in bailing out these wanton rich boys from their gambling debts and assorted scrapes, as Sir Eddie George of the Bank of England noted in 1999. And the central banks may rise to the occasion and lease out the people's gold on the cheap to get them out of this one as well. And all under the radar, hush hush. Insiders never speak ill of insiders, or do anything to inhibit the kleptocracy.
"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."
Alan Greenspan, Congressional Testimony, July 24, 1998
The denouement of the New York-London Gold Pool is coming, but it may not be here yet. These things tend to drag on and on, wearing most everyone who suspects them out. Lots of people make claims about 'paper markets'. They paper the landscape with them. And if something happens, they will all claim to be the first. The point is to drill down and attempt to assemble the data against determined effort to distort and obfuscate and hide it.
There are people who make calls, and people who make money. I don't make 'calls.' I try to calculate odds, and then take some guidance from the probabilities. There are no sure things in this life, except that we will all meet the same end, and I believe will be called to account for our actions.
Timely caution is advisable, perhaps on a number of fronts.
"The August turbulence in global [equity] markets has produced significant shifts, including a 6.6% fall in equity prices. The currencies of emerging market countries have depreciated substantially against the G-4, while emerging market borrowing rates for sovereigns and corporates [bonds] have moved higher. Global oil prices have been whipsawed as have G-4 bond yields.
The speed and magnitude of these movements is reminiscent of past episodes in which financial crises emerged or the global economy slipped into recession. However, nothing appears to be breaking. Global activity indicators have, on balance, disappointed but remain consistent with a modest pickup in the pace of growth. Additionally, despite the turbulence in financial markets, there is no sign of unusual stress in short-term funding markets or of a credit crisis in any large Emerging Markets economies."
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist, JP Morgan
So be of good cheer, nothing appears to be breaking, yet.
"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."
Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999
Below is a partial transcript of an interview with Jim Rickards on The Gold Chronicles from July 16, 2015.
You may listen to the entire interview here. This transcript is for the portion that runs from about minute 31 through 42. It is a very interesting interview and if you have the time you might wish to listen to the whole thing.
The reason I wished to share this transcript is the nice, compact description that Jim gives of the LBMA and how they manage their gold bullion contracts.
What provoked this discussion was an earlier question about the reported very large long positions of two banks, JPM and Citi, on the Comex that were noted back in May-June of this year.
Jim's supposition is that they must have had a physical gold short exposure elsewhere, and possibly on the LBMA. As Jim relates it the Banks do not typically take large positions in one direction but tend to work on spreads and make their profits with leverage on those fairly thin trades. And Jim should know since that massive buildup of leverage on thin trades that refused to perform is what blew up LTCM while he was there.
As is clear from this interview, the LBMA is a 'fractional reserve' exchange, with much of the gold being hypothecated some number of times.
IF there is a shortage of physical bullion developing, it will most likely appear in either London or Switzerland. That is because London is the gold hub for the West, and they tend to operate on some multiple of claims to actual free holdings. And Switzerland is where the gold is procured and refined for the formats of the Asian markets
As you know, I have been looking carefully for some time at the odd happenings with physical bullion on the Comex. At least they seem very odd to me if not to some others. You can be the judge.
And as you may recall, there were some pieces in the news about the 'tightness' of gold in London and the dearer prices being paid for gold available for immediate delivery. Again, nothing huge, but another point of data.
And of course there is Goldman in there taking delivery of bullion for their house account reportedly.
And this flurry of schemes coming out of India to do more domestic mining, and monetize the gold held by private individuals and their temples, to stem the demand for bullion imports.
IF the Banks were short of physical bullion in London around July when Jim gave this interview, then by his estimates we would tend to see the strains on the free holdings of physical bullion about-- now.
I do not know what has caused Jim to say that "people are taking their gold out of banks and putting it into new vaults because they’re losing confidence in the banking system. These new vaults are private storage vaults owned by private companies, not by banks." I do not have his level of contacts. But it does seem that there is a slow but steady bleed of bullion out of the Comex warehouses. And 'deliverable' gold is at record low levels.
One would hope that the Banks were wise, and would not pyramid their web of wagers in size and term, hoping that the shortages of physical gold do not become deeper and more stubbornly set. This could turn into a feedback loop of shortage and demand that would have Sir Eddy George back staring into the abyss once again.
But alas, this time the central banks are net buyers, not sellers. And the gold manipulators must contend with the great engines of physical demand in the East. Surely by now the Banks must have learned their lessons about recklessly gambling with other people's money and assets.
What have we learned, at long last, about bailing these fellows out?
What makes this a more potentially serious problem is that the willful battering of the miners may make a resilient source of non-central bank supply more difficult to ramp up A typical gold project takes many years to get into meaningful production.
Perhaps the central banks will use the people's sovereign wealth, this time in the form of gold as well as paper, to bail out their banking buddies from their reckless wagering once again.
When I was in Switzerland for Physical Gold Fund, we actually saw the gold that belongs to the investors in Physical Gold Fund. We had auditors, they had bar numbers and manifests, and we went item by item. Those bars actually belonged to the fund.
That’s not true with these LBMA agreements. You don’t have any allocated gold. That means a bank can have, say, one ton of gold and they can sell 20 tons of gold. They use the one ton to back all 20 of those contracts. In effect, they’re short 19 tons. They own one ton physical and sell 20 tons to a bunch of institutional investors or high-net-worth individuals who want to own gold, so they’re short.
They depend on their customers not asking for the gold. As long as this is all on paper, it works fine. Where it breaks down is if the customer comes in and says, “You know that unallocated gold? I would like to make it allocated and actually have the physical gold. In fact, not only do I want it allocated, but I would like you deliver it from your vault to a private vault run by Brinks or Loomis or one of the big secure logistics providers.”
That is what’s going on. People are taking their gold out of banks and putting it into new vaults because they’re losing confidence in the banking system. These new vaults are private storage vaults owned by private companies, not by banks.
Going back to my original scenario, the bank has one ton of gold and they sell 20. If even five customers show up and say, “I’d like my gold,” one ton each, you’re now short four tons. You have one ton of physical, but you have five tons of requests from five different customers. You’re short four tons, so you have to go out into the market and buy four tons of market. Guess what? That’s a big order. Good luck finding it. You can find it eventually, but you might not be able to find it quickly. So you have price exposure. You’re suddenly short the gold because your customers are demanding it.
What would you do? You’d go out and buy the futures. Now you’re hedged. You’re short to the customer who sent you the notice, you’re long on the futures, but you’re price exposure is hedged. Now you can take 30 or 60 days or however long it takes to source the physical and make delivery to the customer. The customer may think the gold is sitting in the vault and can be delivered tomorrow, but trust me, they can’t. They’ll be lucky to get it in 30 days and could even take a few months.
When I see a massively long futures position, it suggests to me – again, to be clear, I cannot prove this – that banks are turning up short in some other part of the operation, probably on these unallocated gold forwards. Customers are taking their gold out of the bank, the bank has to deliver to those customers, they’re short, they’re getting long futures to hedge, and they’re going to spend the next couple months going out and buying gold.
"In good times people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money is plentiful, there are always many people who need more. Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly.
In a depression all this is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye. The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself otherwise. Audits are penetrating and meticulous. Commercial morality is enormously improved."
John Kenneth Galbraith
There is a short excerpt of a video interview with hedge fund titan Ray Dalio at the Council on Foreign Relations below.
I think it is priceless. Ray lays out his thoughts on wealth and hedging with gold to the chuckles and sniggers of the pampered ruling class in a very clear and straightforward manner.
There is also another video interview in which Dalio discusses his views with the smirking chimps from CNBC. It is almost a scene out of Huxley's Brave New World, with Dalio as some kind of monetary savage trying to explain reality to those who have been incubated in an artificial currency regime of King Dollar and know nothing else.
Here is why I think that this is important.
The gold market in particular seems to have bifurcated, or split into two: one market for largely paper speculation and high leverage, and another for the purchase and distribution of actual physical bullion.
Is this a problem?
Yes it is. Because the attitude towards gold among the status quo in the West has become rigidly dogmatic, supported by years of lazy thinking and a determined campaign of ridicule and propaganda to attempt to extend the unsustainable.
You can see it emerge every so often in sites and media outlets and analysts who can be considered as creatures of the establishment, to use an older phrase, for whatever reason they may have. Some of the economist manservants of the ruling class talk about gold with the same sneering manner that a Victorian aristocrat might have discussed the 'rights' of the peoples of India or of China.
And I do not necessarily think they are bad motives, in the dishonest sense at least. Some may actually believe what they say, although for the most part I don't think that the fortunate care what is good or what is true, if it serves their own special interests. This is how they have been taught to be, how life is.
If you have been brought up, bred, and bombarded with certain points of view for most of your life, it is no surprise that you may reflexively tend to adhere to and promote those views without regard to any intervening facts, past or present. You have been programmed by your education and, dare I say it, class. I see it all the time.
And it can sometimes lead to odd divergences in reasoning. This is why certain Founding Fathers found it perfectly acceptable to declare that 'all men are created equal' and also own slaves. Or to seek to curtail the rights of the non-landed and women in terms of ruling and voting. They are running on what they knew, without proper and rigorous examination.
It is hard for someone who has come from outside that system to understand how they can rationalize such a glaring discrepancy. But if you put yourself in their place, and honestly examine some of your own habitual thinking, it is not so hard.
Hypocrisy, maybe. And maybe it is just the unexamined prejudices of the fortunate. Sometimes even what seems to be an obvious truth can only be seen clearly through tears. And we have quite a surplus of the exceptionally fortunate these days, who have been pampered and privileged by an order which care very well for them, but that seems to be passing.
A big change is what we are heading for. We have a financial system that still holds a vast amount of gold in the central banks, including the US and Europe according to their reports at least. And more importantly, it is on a mad increase in the East with the central banks and the people buying in ever increasing amounts. Those who serve the power circles of New York, Washington, and London do not want to hear about it, anymore than Winston Churchill had a regard for the thoughts of Mr. Gandhi.
And despite the huge change in the global supply and demand for bullion, we have a holdover, a significant price discovery mechanism in New York and London that is increasingly diverging from the physical realities of supply and demand.
There is going to be a reconciliation of attitudes and realities at some point. And it may be quite impressive. The longer that the status quo and their courtiers try to maintain their modern aristocracy, like vast tectonic plates unable to move but building greater and greater pressure, the more dramatic that change may be when it finally comes.
And alas, so many of our politicians are servants, although well paid and well taken, of the moneyed interests. So they will do nothing that would perturb their true lords and masters, if they wish to also become fabulously rich and rise within the existing system.
The thought of the harm that this careless disregard for justice and right reason is doing to a very large group of relative bystanders and innocents, whose proper role is to be protected by those who have been gifted with greater talents accompanied by oaths of office, is almost disheartening.
Speaking of the pampered paperati, the FOMC will be giving us their pronouncement on interest rates tomorrow afternoon. It will most likely be an exercise in cognitive dissonance, no matter what they do.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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