NY Times Forecasts a 80% 93% Chance of Trump Win - Son of Brexit?

"People are upset.  They're angry at the system and they see Trump — not so much that they agree with him — but they see him as the human Molotov cocktail that they get to toss into the system like Brexit and blow it up, to send a message."

Michael Moore


"When Democrats sold out their own rank and file in the past it constituted betrayal, but at least it sometimes got them elected. Specifically, the strategy succeeded back in the 1990s when Republicans were market purists and working people truly had 'nowhere else to go'.    As our modern Clintonists of 2016 move instinctively to dismiss the concerns of working people, however, they should keep this in mind: those people may have finally found somewhere else to go."

Thomas Frank, Hillary Clinton Needs to Wake Up, 28 July 2016


"We've seen the hubris. And now we're seeing the scandals."

David Gergen

This forecast from the NY Times is just one group's reading of the situation, and it is far too early to call the race, as America's own 'Brexit Moment', but the showing by Trump has to be casting a chill on the American political establishment.

And perhaps some doubt on the polling that has been appearing throughout this political season.

There are a few remaining states that will be absolutely pivotal to the forecasters, especially Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

If Wisconsin goes Republican for president, it will be for the first time in 32 years.

So let's see what happens.  It still is too early to call.

If you want a laugh, tune in to MSNBC or CNN and listen to the shock and dismay amongst the commentators.

The credibility trap is on full display.  Those who have been living in the echo chamber of the insular establishment seem to be getting a very cold slap in the face from reality.

I wonder if the Democratic insiders are capable of learning something from this one, especially with regard to the 'they have nowhere else to go' attitude towards their traditional base, before they threw them overboard from the free trade express, and adopted the 'one dollar, one vote' philosophy.

Or will it just be 'blame Wikileaks, blame the Russians, blame Bernie Sanders, and excoriate the voting public for their ignorance in failing to recognize our natural right to rule.'

As they have said several times tonight, 'The smart people were wrong again.'   As opposed to the dopes who make up the rest of the country and need their guidance.

It is wonderful to see how the very serious people can look at this farce of a recovery, and still not get it.   They are like British aristocrats stomping around their far flung colonies in days gone by saying, 'Why are the natives so angry?  What do they want?  What would they do without us?'

The Dow futures are down roughly 700 points.

Gold has rocketed higher to $1323, and silver is bumping its head against $19.

So let's see what happens.

Link to live NY Times forecast page here.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Twilight of the Gods

"Now the serpent was more subtle and cunning than any beast which the Lord had made.   And he said to the woman, "Has God indeed commanded, ‘You shall not eat of every tree of the garden’?”

And the woman replied to the serpent, “We may eat the fruits of any other of the trees of the garden; but of the fruit of the tree which is in the midst of the garden, God has said, ‘You shall not eat from it, nor shall you touch it, lest it may cause you to lose your life.’”

Then the serpent said to the woman, “Surely you will not die if you take it and eat it.  For God himself knows that on the day that you grasp it and eat it, your eyes will be opened, and you yourselves will be like gods, knowing the depths of both good and evil.”

Genesis 3:1-4


"For some time now, our whole European culture has been moving with a tortured tension that is growing from decade to decade, as toward a catastrophe: restlessly, violently, headlong, like a river that wants to reach the end, that no longer thinks, that is afraid to think.”

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Will to Power, 1901

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Markets paused today.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Markets Cheer the Prospect of a Pyrrhic Victory

"Where men build on false grounds, the more they build, the greater is the ruin."

Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan


"Nothing on earth is like it, a creature without the self-awareness of fear. It sees only those that are haughty; it is the king of the children of pride."

Job 41:33-34

The markets were celebrating the prospects of a President Hillary Clinton, and a Republican House.

The biggest twist that might be possible is a close showing or win for Trump in the popular vote, but a decisive loss in the electoral college.

And it does seem likely that the new President will be a crippled ruler from the first, with weak popular support and virulent opposition in the House.

She will almost certainly be facing investigation after investigation. And if the outgoing President grants any blanket pardons I think the uproar might be substantial.

Her biggest supporters will be on Wall Street and Big Media, and they are 'Summer soldiers' at best.

I don't think I could have even imagined the blatantly slanted coverage we have seen throughout this entire election, including the candidacy of Bernie Sanders.   It was a disgrace.

We might be pleasantly surprised, but it is likely to be cosmetic, as in the case of Slick Willy who from a progressive standpoint was one of the worst Democratic Presidents ever.

 She might make some well advertised changes in healthcare and Big Pharma, but at the end of the day she is a servant to the financiers of Wall Street.

And let us not forget that as we have recently seen The Clinton Foundation is the heart of darkness, a festering wound on the integrity of the political process.  

The words 'Pyrrhic victory' come to mind.

Winning.....

But all of that *should* be good for gold and silver, without regard to the short term and the massive collateral damage that is likely from the bonfire of these inanities.

Let's see what happens tomorrow and not get too far ahead of ourselves. I am the first to admit that my crystal ball is cloudy.

The delivery report and warehouse statistics were a snooze so I did not bother.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Risk Assets On

Markets went off like a rocket from support, thanks to a short term very oversold condition, along with a change in market sentiment that appears to anticipate President Clinton II and a Republican House.

The only surprise that I think is remotely probable is a Trump win or close showing in the popular vote, but a big loss in the electoral college.

And although others have said it, tomorrow settles nothing. The restlessness of the people should be obvious, and the onus for change will be on the President to be and the ruling elite.  I am not optimistic.

Let's see what actually happens tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metals Trusts and Funds

As you may recall, The Sprott Trusts continue to add units outstanding in order to acquire more physical bullion under their 'At the Market' Program with Cantor Fitzgerald which was announced on May 6 of this year.

It is certainly was a smart move and a nice change from their prior arrangement with Morgan Stanley which was restrictive and prone to manipulation and arbitrage.

As we have noted many times this year, Sprott is taking affirming action in the markets to add to their bullion position opportunistically.

"The Trust has entered into a sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. (“Cantor”) whereby the Trust may, at its sole discretion and subject to its operating and investment restrictions, offer and sell trust units through an “at-the-market” offering program (the “ATM Program”).

The Trust intends to use the proceeds from any sales to acquire physical bullion in accordance with the Trust’s objectives and subject to the Trust’s investment and operating restrictions. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds from the sale of any trust units pursuant to the ATM Program must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per trust unit prior to, or upon, determination of pricing of any sales (the “Accretion Condition”).

Given this Accretion Condition, the Trust expects that any sales pursuant to the ATM Program will be accretive to the Trust’s unitholders on a net asset value per trust unit basis and will increase the physical bullion attributable to each trust unit. Sprott also believes that the Trust may realize other secondary benefits from any sales made pursuant to the ATM Program including enhancing the trading liquidity of the Trust and decreasing the Trust’s operating expenses on a per unit basis."

As we all can see, today is certainly a 'risk asset' day with stocks soaring and the metals giving back some of their recent gains.  The financiers and their markets seem to be betting that they get what they want from the upcoming Presidential election.