17 November 2016

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Onward and Upward


Every thing is going to be wonderful, and all of our problems will be solved, because The Donald has taken the tiller.

I am keeping an open mind. It is not easy. It takes an act of will.

Stocks were rallying to new highs with the US dollar, which matched its prior high of the last several years.

Have a pleasant evening.


16 November 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Fog of Politics


"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich."

John Kenneth Galbraith

The sugar high of the Trump election seems to be wearing a bit thin on Wall Street. I had said at the time that I thought they would just execute the trading plans they had in place in their supposition that Hillary was going to win. And this is what I think they did, and have been doing.

And so when the thrill is gone, and dull reality starts sinking in, I suspect we are going to be in for quite a correction.

However, I am tuning out the hysteria from the Wall Street Democrats, especially the pitiful whining emanating from organizations like MSNBC, CNN, and the NY Times, because they have discredited themselves as reliable, unbiased sources.  They really have.

They may just be joining their right-leaning peers in this, but they still do not realize it, and think of themselves as exceptional, and morally superior.  And the same can be said of many pundits, and insiders, and very serious people with important podiums in the academy and the press.

Hillary was to be their meal ticket.  And their anguish at being denied a payday for their faithful service is remarkable.

We are being treated to rumours that Trump is going to appoint this or that despicable person to some key position.  I am waiting for him to show his hand with some actual decisions and appointments.

This is not to say that I am optimistic, not in the least.  I am not, and I most certainly did not vote for him (or her for that matter). But the silliness of the courtiers in the media is just too much, too much whining from those who had their candy of power and money by association expectations taken away.

I am therefore very interested in seeing who the DNC will choose as chairperson. Liz Warren came out today and endorsed Ellison, which I believe Bernie Sanders has done as well.  He is no insider like Wasserman-Schulz, Brazile, or Dean.

The Democratic party is at a crossroads, in a split between taking policy positions along lines of 'class' or 'identity.'

By class is meant working class of the broader public versus the moneyed interests of financiers and tech monopolists.  Identity implies the working with various minority groups who certainly may deserve redress for real suppression of their rights and other financial abuses, but in a 'splintering' manner that breaks them down into special interest groups rather than a broader movement of the disadvantaged.

Why has this been the establishment approach of the heart of the Democratic power circles?

I think the reason for this Democratic strategy has been purely practical.  There was no way the Wall Street wing of the Democratic party could make policy along lines of the middle class and the poor, and keep a straight face, while gorging themselves in a frenzy of massive soft corruption and enormous donations from the wealthiest few who they were thereby expected to represent and to serve.

And so they lost politically, and badly.

The average American, of whatever identity, finally became sick of them, and rejected the balkanization of their interests into special identity groups that could be more easily managed and messaged, and controlled.

This was a huge difference that we saw in the Sanders campaign, almost to a fault. Not because he was wrong necessarily, but because it was so unaccustomed, and insufficiently articulated. Sanders had his heart in the right place, perhaps, but he lacked the charisma and outspokenness of an FDR. Not to mention that his own party powers were dead set against him, because they wanted to keep the status quo that had rewarded them so well in place.

It is not at all obvious that the Democrats can find themselves again.  Perhaps Mr. Trump, while doing some things well, will take economic policy matters to an excess, and like the Democrats ignore the insecurity and discontent of the working class.  And the people will find a voice, eventually, in either the Democratic party, or something entirely new.

This is not just an American phenomenon.  This has happened with Labour and Brexit in the UK, and is happening in the rest of the developed nations in Europe.   One thing that the ruling elite of the West have had in common is a devotion to corporate globalisation and inequality.

And that system is not going to 'cohere' as economist Robert Johnson had put it so well.

With all this change and volatility and insecurity, it appears that people will be reaching for some sort of safe haven for themselves and their resources.  So far the Dollar index has benefited from this, not because of its virtues, but from the weakness and foundering of the others.

I am afraid that the confidence in the Dollar as a safe haven is misplaced, especially if things go as I expect that they will with the US economy under a Trump administration.  But that is still largely in his hand,s to be decided and written.  We have yet to see if he has the will and mind to oppose the vested interests of his own party and the corporate, moneyed interests.

That is an enormous, history-making task, requiring an almost historic moral compass.  And so I am not optimistic.

Have a pleasant evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Option Expiry on Friday


In general, and as a rule of thumb, it is a mistake to attribute goodness and wisdom simply because they are wealthy, pretty, or successful in some narrow pursuit, like trading.

I just mention that because there are so many of the 'very serious people', who have a placemarker with their name on it at the table of the ruling elite chiming in and giving us their political views on public policy.

There are of course some notable exceptions, some that I have personally known, but in general they are few and far between.

Stocks seem overdone. Let's see where they go.

A strong dollar is not good for the real economy. But the financiers seem to like it.

Have a pleasant evening.


15 November 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Stock Option Expiry Friday, Comex Options Next Week


"What is the Democratic Party’s former constituency of labor and progressive reformers to do? Are they to stand by and let the party be captured in Hillary’s wake by Robert Rubin’s Goldman Sachs-Citigroup gang that backed her and Obama?

The 2016 election sounded the death knell for the identity politics. Its aim was to persuade voters not to think of their identity in economic terms, but to think of themselves as women or as racial and ethnic groups first and foremost, not as having common economic interests. This strategy to distract voters from economic policies has obviously failed...

This election showed that voters have a sense of when they’re being lied to. After eight years of Obama’s demagogy, pretending to support the people but delivering his constituency to his financial backers on Wall Street. 'Identity politics' has given way to the stronger force of economic distress. Mobilizing identity politics behind a Wall Street program will no longer work."

Michael Hudson

December is historically a big month for gold on the Comex, and this year looks to be no real exception.

The precious metals have been getting knocked lower in the Dollar crosses by paper traders who look at them as a currency with some perceived equilibrium with respect to the currency per se.

Put more simply, they are trading gold and silver as emerging market currencies, and running them contra the Dollar which is still the heart of the global financial establishment.

This can run for some time. When I did studies in the past, multi-linear regression analysis across a wide range of variables, I found that this contra-dollar correlation for gold in particular could last for long periods of time.

However, there are other periods in which gold moves in other ways without respect to this negative dollar correlation.

This caused me to suspect that the real correlation is more complex than a simplistic linear pricing model.

But what the heck, let's just see how long this strong dollar, higher yields on bonds and lower precious metals trade can go. Typically the forex crowd are paper traders using astronomical leverage. And they always tend to 'overshoot' their trends, and suffer sharp correction.

So all that being said, let's watch the charts and see which way we go, from what is clearly a short term oversold situation. It could become moreso. Or not.

In the intermediate to longer term I still believe quite strongly that the market is going to implode from an excess of leverage and a lack of primary assets backing those claims. And it could be quite impressive.

I am also quite concerned about the rise of civil disobedience and protests of the sort we have not seen in the US in many years. I have to admit that I am somewhat relieved that Hillary and her neo-cons have been tossed.

But it is far too early to have much confidence in Donald Trump and his advisors, whomever they may eventually be.  I have completely lost confidence in the wisdom and restraint of the 'ruling elite' and their enablers.   And that does not bode well for anyone.  So one takes measures.  Hence alternative currencies.

So here we are.

Have a pleasant evening.


SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Stock Option Expiration This Friday


As a reminder there is a stock option expiration at the end of this week.

The stock market has been buoyed by whomever, for whatever reasons,  since the Trump election last week.

I suspect that it will be running out of gas, about now.  But let's wait to see it reach its apogee.

There are some big changes, and likely some shocks coming.  

Not a good time for the Fed, which has been in the long term confidence, bubble-blowing game far too many years now.

Let's allow Trump to show his true colours in his appointments.  I am trying to ignore most of the rumours, some of which are calculated to alarm people perhaps.

Have a pleasant evening.






14 November 2016

Just Charts At 3:30 - Good To Me


"When is a crisis reached? When questions arise that cannot be answered."

Ryszard Kapuscinski

And it is also when the excessive leverage of a financialized market begins to implode, as the holders of claims discover that they have been the unwitting victims of misrepresented counterparty risks.

I am upgrading my computer and I am going to have to spend a little time on that one, getting some software and applications that are misbehaving sorted out.

The US dollar was on another tear higher today, and so we saw some weakness in the precious metals.

The bonds, especially the longer dated ones, have been getting beaten up of late. No real surprise there as they were caught up in a mispricing of risk, or in plainer words a bubble, for quite some time, compliments of the Fed.

Stocks were mixed to lower, with the usual suspects showing some resilience in the SP, not so much in the NDX which is tech heavy.

This 'flight to risk' which we have been seeing since the election is acting heavy now, and may be coming to an end.

I have taken money out of cash and put it back into the metals, and selectively in the miners, over the past two trading days.

See you tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.