18 February 2015

Pictures From a Currency War, With Narrative


I have noticed lately that the spinmeisters are now latching on to the term 'currency war,' but are trying to deflect it merely to an intensification of the beggar thy neighbor strategy of devaluing your currency to subsidize exports and penalize imports.

This has been going on for a long time, most notably by the Asian Tigers, led by Japan and then perfected by China.  But make no mistake, the real heart of this process is in an Anglo-American banking/industrial cartel that intends to beggar everybody.

The multinational corporations went along with it.  They were its great lobbyists, and their wealthy scions the founders of think tanks to provide it a rationale and respectability. 
 
Walmart wrote a chapter in the new gospel of greed as a means of undermining wages and the American working class by insisting, as far back as the 1990's and the Clinton era, that suppliers start offshoring to China. And servile politicians opened the doors wide, and turned a blind eye to abuses that are still coming home to roost.

Part of the arrangement was a quid pro quo. The multinationals, who successfully staged a financial coup d'état in the States and Western Europe, were to extend the reach of their strong dollar policy and europression via foreign direct investments in resources rich overseas nations and foreign markets in order to consolidate their power into the non-democratic world.

But China and Russia balked at their end of the presumed bargain. They realized that opening their own doors to dollar exploitation, and allowing the economic hitmen to come in and pick up assets on the cheap, would lead to eventual political unrest, encirclement, and their own loss of power.

'Color revolutions' were becoming popular, as one country after another was falling into chaos, the kind that produces fire sales in productive assets and the elimination of inconvenient local rivals to power.  And in Europe, the powers that be created a Eurozone structure that any decent economist would know was unsustainable, and destined to create an unstable situation of few winners and many big losers.

And so a consortium of nations began to resist.  Some called them the BRICS.   They became alarmed, and then convinced, that allowing a single nation or group of multinationals to control the world's reserve currency was like a Ponzi scheme that could only continue on until its acquired the whip hand of power everywhere.

They started to speak up in international monetary organizations, long dominated by the Anglo-American banking and industrial cartels. They demanded the establishment of a new monetary standard for international trade that was broadly based, to replace the failed Bretton Woods Agreement that had continuing on as the ad hoc dollar hegemony known as Bretton Woods II after Nixon arbitrarily broke the formal agreement with the closing of the gold window in 1971.

And so we see a new phenomenon today, in which the long term selling of gold to control its price, resulting in the post-Bretton Woods bear market that lasted over twenty years, has given way to net gold buying by the world's central banks, and in increasing size.  And the creation of a paper gold market in parallel, through which the West seeks to control the price and supply of gold, to maintain their financial operation while they more aggressively pursue nation recycling and repurposing, draconian trade deals that supplant domestic governance, and when that fails, through internal insurgencies and at times, overt military action.

Simultaneously, there are a proliferation of bilateral trade deals in which currency arrangements are being made between countries, and even among small regional groups of nations, to conduct their business outside of the US Dollar system.  They are even building up their own financial networks and infrastructure in response to increasingly aggressive use of sanctions and other forms of economic pressure.

The US and UK, like China and Russia, are not immune to concerns about domestic unrest. A strong dollar policy and the support for a policy of offshoring to increase corporate profits are wreaking havoc on one of the world's greatest popular economic achievements: the US middle class.
 
Increasingly concerned, the governments are cracking down on any sparks of domestic dissent, targeting leaders, vilifying and suppressing minorities, and increasing the surveillance of its own people.  They are weaponizing the domestic police forces, and establishing the 'legal means' by which control can be maintained in the face of increasing misery and discontent at home.

It is not a pretty picture. It is an old story of greed and deceit, of empire and world conquest, of the desolating sacrilege of betraying those who have fought for freedom and civil rights to cash in for their own selfish gains. 
 
Will this end in a new gold standard, as this article A New Gold Standard in the Making, which is the source of these graphs suggests?  I surely do not know, and still do not think so.  
 
If you have been following the thought process here, going back before even the establishment of this blog to 2000, I have felt that the most likely course will be the establishment of a new unit of international currency, similar to but not the same as the SDR, with a far broader composition of currencies and commodities included, so that no single group would be able to control it for their own purposes.
 
Stagflation is no natural phenomenon.  It is the act of man in a policy intervention or policy error par excellence.  Until OPEC was able to trigger a stagflation through their use of an oil embargo and price cartel in the 1970's in the favorable conditions created by economic rot introduced by years of discretionary, aggressive war in Southeast Asia and the ensuing debts, most economists thought it to be impossible, and certainly not a 'natural' outcome.
 
I think that domestic reform will be coming, and this is necessary because no new monetary standard is going to repair a system that has failed from within due to corruption and systemic injustice.  
 
Old systems, even when they finally turn to visible abuse as they decline, can fail for a very long time, seemingly unbeatable, until they finally collapse from within.  This is how it was for the fall of the old Soviet Union, and this is how it may be for the Anglo-American cartel and their attendant nations like Germany and Japan.
 
It is still possible that Russia and China could make a deal with the Anglo-Americans and establish a tri-partite world government, with their own spheres of control and interest.  As you may recall this was the way George Orwell saw it in 1984.  I have been watching for that possible development based on my own research on the growth of international capital markets and flows since 1990 at least. 
 
People bring this up and so I wish to address it now, once and for all.  I am aware of the possible deeper significance of these developments from an eschatological perspective.  But recall that even the great apostle, who was 'lifted up to the third heaven,' was mistaken in his estimation of it, thinking it a phenomenon of his own time.  It is a mistake of vanity to go too far in such arcane and difficult subjects, in pursuit of sick thrills that only serve to distract us from our call to the work of the day, and the practical task of finding sanctity and salvation in the world. 
 
How we will react to this individually is critical for our own long term survival as spiritual beings regardless, since we all face our own ends individually.  Of this we can be sure.   We are told that most will give in, despairing at the increase in wickedness, and seek for power and riches of their own beyond all reason and grace.   And it requires no end time to see this happening through all ages. 
 
Change is coming.  It may be a new arrangement that brings with it the blessing of reform, transparency and justice through peaceful evolution.  It may be delayed and more difficult.  What cannot be sustained will not continue. 
 
This will end.  But perhaps not very well.  To a great extent that is up to us, unless we stand by and do nothing.  "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."  But what shall I to do?   Begin with yourself, despising only the fear and the evil in you.  Do as you have been instructed by the two great commandments, which have been implanted as a seed in your heart. 
 
You are called.  You choose the answer.


 
 

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The cash level on the Sprott Silver Trust is getting mighty thin.



17 February 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Unusual


"Ordinarily, the financial risk in a market, and hence the risk to the economy at large, is limited because the assets traded are finite. There are only so many houses, mortgages, shares of stock, bushels of corn, [bars of silver], or barrels of oil in which to invest.

But a synthetic instrument has no real assets. It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references. That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy...

Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets. Synthetics became the chips in a giant casino, one that created no economic growth even when it thrived, and then helped throttle the economy when the casino collapsed."

US Congressman Carl Levin

Obvious, heavy-handed, and pretty clear to anyone who will look at the tape.
 
Such are the times in currency wars and financial coups d'état.

It was a concerted dumping of contracts at market in the quiet early hours of trading precipitated by no news, amongst players who will be unlikely to exchange any of the physical commodities that they are 'buying and selling.'
 
This is not price discovery.
 
This is will not achieve its intentions, unless those involve a severe market dislocation, and a break in trust in the integrity of the financial system, starting at the periphery of the Dollar empire.
 
The fraud and looting will continue until confidence improves.
 
What could go wrong?
 
There was intraday commentary here and here.
 
Have a pleasant evening.

 
 
 
 

Stocks Rally on Geopolitical Risk and Worse Than Expected Economic News


"We have forgotten the gracious hand which preserved us in peace, and multiplied and enriched and strengthened us; and we have vainly imagined, in the deceitfulness of our hearts, that all these blessings were produced by some superior wisdom and virtue of our own. Intoxicated with unbroken success, we have become too self-sufficient to feel the necessity of redeeming and preserving grace, too proud to pray to the God that made us!"

Abraham Lincoln, April 1863


"The great masquerade of evil has played havoc with all our ethical concepts. For evil to appear disguised as light, as charity, as historical necessity, or social justice is quite bewildering to anyone raised on traditional ethical concepts. But for the Christian who builds his life on the word of God, it merely confirms the fundamental perversity of evil."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Stocks managed to eke out some addition gains on increasing geopolitical risks, a government report that shows quite clearly that the financial system remains fragile and vulnerable to collapse from interconnected counterparty risks and reckless speculation, and a worse than expected set of numbers from the real economy.
 
Hi ho!
 
Eventually, everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.
 
Have a pleasant evening.
 
 
 
 
 

UK Journalist Calls Out 'Fraud on Readers' in Coverage of HSBC


“An editorial operation that is clearly influenced by advertising is classic appeasement. Once a very powerful body know they can exert influence they know they can come back and threaten you. It totally changes the relationship you have with them. You know that even if you are robust you won’t be supported and will be undermined...

The coverage of HSBC in Britain's Daily Telegraph is a fraud on its readers. If major newspapers allow corporations to influence their content for fear of losing advertising revenue, democracy itself is in peril.”

A 'principled resignation' is a phenomenon somewhat unfamiliar to US readers.  Rarely does a public figure or a politician resign because they is something they won't do to get along.  They resign because they get caught doing something that is so repugnant to public sentiment that they are finished, at least for a while.  We have a marvelous way of excusing and ignoring behavior in the selected elite that would shame a garbageman into changing their name and moving.

And so a decline in journalistic standards is not as great of an issue in the States, because the major media was captured by a handful of corporations in the 1990's, in part thanks to Bill Clinton's change in ownership rules.

So one might ask, what standards?  What were the standards that allowed the lies that have led to war, that covered up mass spying and torture, and that allowed one of the greatest thefts of the public trust in history to occur in the 'bank bailouts,' with a coordinated suppression of any meaningful protest?

In the recent World Press Freedom Index, the US ranked 49th, in same tier as Romania, El Salvador, and Niger.

Their standards have long been so low that journalist may be more of a hollow title on a business card than a calling to a profession with time-honored standards.
 
In the States, journalistic independence and integrity were some years ago led down a blind alley, and quietly strangled. 

The capture of key institutions of democracy are already well underway or in place.  Where this leads, one cannot say.   But it does not bode well.

Even television spokesmodels and serial liars are considered 'credentialed journalists' in good standing as long as they remain within the well defined bounds of the corporatist credibility trap.
Why I Have Resigned From the Telegraph
Peter Osborne
17 February 2015

...With the collapse in standards has come a most sinister development. It has long been axiomatic in quality British journalism that the advertising department and editorial should be kept rigorously apart. There is a great deal of evidence that, at the Telegraph, this distinction has collapsed...

This brings me to a second and even more important point that bears not just on the fate of one newspaper but on public life as a whole. A free press is essential to a healthy democracy. There is a purpose to journalism, and it is not just to entertain. It is not to pander to political power, big corporations and rich men. Newspapers have what amounts in the end to a constitutional duty to tell their readers the truth.

It is not only the Telegraph that is at fault here. The past few years have seen the rise of shadowy executives who determine what truths can and what truths can’t be conveyed across the mainstream media. The criminality of News International newspapers during the phone hacking years was a particularly grotesque example of this wholly malign phenomenon. All the newspaper groups, bar the magnificent exception of the Guardian, maintained a culture of omerta around phone-hacking, even if (like the Telegraph) they had not themselves been involved. One of the consequences of this conspiracy of silence was the appointment of Andy Coulson, who has since been jailed and now faces further charges of perjury, as director of communications in 10 Downing Street...

This was the pivotal moment. From the start of 2013 onwards stories critical of HSBC were discouraged. HSBC suspended its advertising with the Telegraph. Its account, I have been told by an extremely well informed insider, was extremely valuable. HSBC, as one former Telegraph executive told me, is “the advertiser you literally cannot afford to offend”. HSBC today refused to comment when I asked whether the bank's decision to stop advertising with the Telegraph was connected in any way with the paper's investigation into the Jersey accounts.

Read the entire article at OpenDemocracy here.
 
 
 Here are some selections from financial television.  I do not mean to pick on CNBC.  Bloomberg and Fox are certainly no better, and in many ways probably worse. 

And the mainstream media now pretty much follows the same patterns on its high gloss coverage whether it be on television or in print.
 
But if you watch the shows on Sunday morning where very serious people come to discuss important public and foreign policy issues of war and peace, basic freedoms, the economy, what you find is a pre-sorted selection of talking heads hurling the latest ying and yang of corporatist spin at each other, with the occasional honest individual, never to be invited again, who is harangued by the network 'journalist.'

 

The Financial System Remains Fragile and At Risk Due To Lack of Meaningful Reform


Read this, and remember when the next financial crisis comes, and the officials and academics say, 'who could have seen it coming?'

Both JP Morgan and Citigroup are at the top of the list of banks posing a high contagion risk.

Why don't those who have been charged with the task of regulating and reforming this in the aftermath of the financial collapse of 2008 fix the system? 
 
Why do the Banks and their courtiers on K Street resist reform so strongly? 

Because short term profits and hot money are trumping public interest, sound reason, and even common sense.

Interconnected Banks Pose Greatest Threat to U.S. Financial System
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens
February 17, 2015

Last Thursday, the Office of Financial Research (OFR), part of the Federal boondoggle created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation in 2010 to foster the illusion that the government was reining in risk on Wall Street, released a new study showing almost unfathomable levels of systemic and interconnected risk among the too-big-to-fail banks that cratered the U.S. financial system in 2008 and has left our economy still struggling to right itself.

Authored by Meraj Allahrakha, Paul Glasserman, and H. Peyton Young, the report reconfirms to Americans that nothing significant has been accomplished in the last six years to prevent casino capitalism on Wall Street from crashing our financial system and the U.S. economy again. The report found that five U.S. banks had high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs...

Read the entire article here.


16 February 2015

Modern Economics: Austerity


"In Greek mythology Sisyphus (Greek: Σίσυφος) was the king of Ephyra. He was punished by the gods for his chronic deceitfulness by being compelled to roll an immense boulder up a steep hill, only to watch it roll back down, over and over again."

In the modern mythology of bizarre economics, austerity can be described as 'the Reverse Sisyphus.'

The victims of systemic bank fraud and widespread cheating and manipulation of markets and laws are forced to pay the price, in an endless cycle of booms and busts, for the deceitfulness and injustice of the powerful financial interests and their privileged friends.
 
Related:  Bubblenomics
 
 

 
The NeoLiberal Colossus

"Keep, ancient lands, your human dignity!" cries she
With curling lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses, yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the weak, the homeless, the victims all to me,
And I will grind their bones, forevermore!"