25 June 2014

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Silver Holds Its Level


There is little question that a major short interest position in silver that had built up in the first part of this year was taken out and pummeled by the power players in the market.  Gold was also oversold on paper, but not to the extent of silver.

Today is a quiet options expiration so far, probably because of this.  The urge to sell silver by going short has been tempered by the beating administered to those who went a bit too far in their antics. 

There is some chance that a gut check will be delivered to the longs at some point before the end of the month, just to keep them orderly.   But the real question is if the trend followers and momentum players will take to the long side now, having run out the clock on the big short.

The irony here is that while funds and specs play their paper reindeer games with each other, the Comex is largely ignoring the physical bullion market.  A little more leverage here, some strategic papering over there, and the band plays on.

These self-absorbed games, and the hubris of the banking cartel, are setting up a monumental dislocation in the global markets.   Try not to exhaust your funds by chasing short term returns and risks through all this nonsense, until the fundamentals becoming overpowering and bend the paper trade to the inevitable reckoning. 

These are dangerous markets, badly regulated, and overlaid with traps and tricks.  Spend your money on more useful endeavors.  Get out of debt, and take your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible.  The oligarchy is not only audacious, but is increasingly rapacious, which for the public is an unfortunate combination, and a terrible burden on the real economy.

As Peter Bernstein said about trading, 'The trick is to survive.'   Until they do not.  And then they go on television. 



24 June 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Option Expiration Tomorrow - Fear Indicator


Cap, cap, cap. The metals are up against some key technical resistance.

They'll never learn. Their pretty charts and paper markets are not the real deal.

Comex will have the July option expirations for the precious metals tomorrow. This is more of an issue for silver than for gold.

There was a little actual movement of gold bullion in the Comex warehouses yesterday. These jokers could supply a decent sized retail coin shop, maybe.

Amazing markets, considering that the Credit Suisse Fear Indicator has just hit an all time high.

Have a pleasant evening.









SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pop n' Flop


Stocks were rallying this morning on the 'better than expected' news about housing and consumer confidence.

As the day wore on, the punters apparently looked behind those numbers and did not like what they saw, and stocks ended up selling off on the day.

VIX has climbed back up a bit to a more 'normal' level of risk.

I had played an advantageous short position from last night, and cleared it out near the close.

The Dubai stock market crashed yesterday. Add that to the list, along with Argentina.

There is risk in these markets. It is just a question of what the trigger event might be, and of course when.

Have a pleasant evening.





23 June 2014

The Recovery™ In One Graph


"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.

When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.

You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin!

You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!"



"...supply-side economics was merely a cover for the trickle-down approach to economic policy — what an older and less elegant generation called the horse-and-sparrow theory: If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows."

John Kenneth Galbraith

Recovery.  For some.

I am not sure what is trickling down in this recovery.  It is not oats, or wealth.

But I am fairly sure that I know why the recovery is so disjointed and selective.  

It is one of the oldest stories.  It is about the abuse of privilege, of foolish people led in herds shouting slogans crafted by the clever and the unscrupulous, of the treacherous and self-destructive fury of unbridled greed.

It is about the lust for power, the deceptiveness of hubris, the blindness of pride, and the lessons from history that have been carefully and intentionally unlearned.  It is about the madness that brings the fire, in hearts and minds of men.
 
 
h/t Anthony Sanders, Confounded Interest

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Standing on the Deck of the Titanic


"Legitimate if you can, coerce if you have to, accommodate if you must."

Jürgen Habermas, as paraphrased by Robert Johnson

There was some interesting back and forth in the media about Germany's gold being held by the Federal Reserve today. You may read about it here.

The  objections to the article by Peter Boehringer seem to be a bit thin in parts.  While he stresses the 'independence' of the Bundesbank from the political process, he fails to note that the Buba never wanted to pursue the repatriation of the gold in the first place. 

It bowed to public political pressure after the embarrassment of their visit to New York in which they were not permitted to view the gold for 'security reasons.'  It seems fairly clear to me that the gold has been committed to the markets by the bullion banks.

Oh yes, it 'looks bad' for the Fed and the Bundesbank, but the real question is 'do they care?'  Perhaps it is time for a pressure check.
 
The US Congress has an approval rating of 7%.   Do they seem to care?  No, and the reasons why they do not care are not that hard to understand, even though we may not like them.  Nothing will change unless the existing equilibrium of the status quo and ruling elite changes, along with their sources of power and money.  And the same applies to Germany and the UK.

Nothing of note occurred in the Comex warehouses or deliveries on Friday.   But the Comex is becoming a Punch and Judy show.

The activity in the precious metals for this week's Comex July option expiration may be driven by silver which is in an active futures contract month.   Gold is not.
"The active contract months for silver will be March, May, July, September and December."

"The active contract months for gold will be February, April, June, August and December."
 
 




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - All Is Well

There's no inflation, says the Fed.
No worry 'bout the price of bread.
Don't drive or eat or buy your med,
And you can live just like they said!

Andrew Stanton





Germany's Gold: Auf Wiedersehen


"Finally he makes a decision, it is time to go, and he uses a gambling metaphor: he says 'Roll the dice', 'Alea jacta esto'. Once the dice start rolling they cannot be controlled, even though we do not know what it is as the dice roll and tumble.

Julius [Caesar] and his men swiftly cross the river [Rubicon] and they march double time toward Rome, where they almost beat the messengers sent to inform the Senate of their arrival.

Frances Titchener, To Rule Mankind and Make the World Obey

"Germany has decided its gold is safe in American hands."

That is one response, when you ask for the return of your gold, and your request is refused.

Just when you thought the spin could not become any more blatant or ridiculous.

Do you have any doubts?  It is not patriotic to have doubts.  You must do your duty, and believe.

This saga of Germany's national gold reserves being held by the Fed in New York is one of the most incredible stories in some time.   I believe it is related to what will become the scandal of the century.

Those reserves are largely gone, or encumbered with multiple claims, having been given to the Banks for their profit. 

How are a people fallen, and their spirit extinguished.
 
Addendum:  This appeared in the comments to this story as it ran in BusinessWeek:
From Peter_Boehringer

Just to set the record straight re this article in which my name is mentioned and in which I am quoted out of context:

a) BusinessWeek/Bloomberg uncritically cites statements of politicians and BuBa-bankers who have or give no proof whatsoever re the untouched whereabouts of the german Gold.

b) Re our campaign "Repatriate our Gold" www.gold-action.de/campaign.ht... : "On hold" does of course NOT mean that we are in any way satisfied with the current status of BuBa´s ongoing repatriation (far too slow and too little - only 5 tons came from NY in 2013! Not exactly a proof for the untouched existence of 1500 tons in a NY vault unaudited since 1950...). Our public campaign will therefore have to continue.

c) Almost no info in the article can be considered in any way "news". Simply because there has not been any material news in this context since early 2013.

d) Especially the headline is plainly false, because there has not been any change in BuBa´s (too slow) repatriation plans: at least 300+ tonnes will come from NY by end 2020. It is not much - but contrary to the headline, BuBa has NOT stopped the ongoing partial repatriation - enforced solely by public pressure!  (I would check your pressure readings mein herr.  Buba seems to be a bit less concerned than one might imagine.  Never underestimate the official indifference of a German bureaucrat to popular opinion.)

e) The political party "Alternative for Germany" has never been part of our campaign - they can therefore not have been "rebuffed" as the article suggests.

f) The political party "FDP" has (with the exception of one (1) MP ) never demanded a repatriation - yet another false info in the article.

g) Some politicians cited in the article can not in any way claim to be "in charge" of the german gold hoard (abroad or not). This holds true for both Mr Barthle and for Mr Hardt: BuBa alone is in charge - and officially, BuBa is independent from political influence... (But apparently not to 'public pressure' whatever that may be.)

Summary: a "non-news" article with a wrong headline, strange interviewees, old news, and with a clearly apologetic ideological approach: the main purpose seems to be NOT to give space to the myriad of unanswered and extremely relevant questions BuBa and the Fed have been refusing to answer for decades. Pls read more at "Repatriate our Gold" http://www.gold-action.de/camp...


German Gold Stays in New York in Rebuff to Euro Doubters
By Birgit Jennen
Jun 23, 2014

Germany has decided its gold is safe in American hands.

Surging mistrust of the euro during Europe’s debt crisis fed a campaign to bring Germany’s entire $141 billion gold reserve home from New York and London. Now, after politics shifted in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition, the government has concluded that stashing half its bullion abroad is prudent after all.
The Americans are taking good care of our gold,” Norbert Barthle, the budget spokesman for Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc in parliament, said in an interview. “Objectively, there’s absolutely no reason for mistrust.”

Ending talk of repatriating the world’s second-biggest gold reserves removes a potential irritant in U.S.-German relations. It’s also a rebuff to critics including the anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, which says all the gold should return to Frankfurt so it can’t be impounded to blackmail Germany into keeping the currency union together...

“The Bundesbank never doubted the integrity of the foreign gold-storage sites,” Carl-Ludwig Thiele, the bank’s council member for payments and settlements, said in an interview on May 23. “We were able to see everything we wanted to see in New York. As far as we’re concerned, there are no more open issues...”

Read the entire article here.

22 June 2014

David Cay Johnston: The Impact of American Inequality


"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes...

No free government can stand without virtue in the people and a lofty spirit of patriotism, and if the sordid feelings of mere selfishness shall usurp the place which ought to be filled by public spirit, the legislation of Congress will soon be converted into a scramble for personal and sectional advantages...

It is one of the serious evils of our present system of banking that it enables one class of society--and that by no means a numerous one--by its control over the currency, to act injuriously upon the interests of all the others and to exercise more than its just proportion of influence in political affairs."

Andrew Jackson