19 October 2009

The US Needs to Get Less Competitive

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed, and hence clamorous to be led to safety, by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." H. L. Mencken

The hobgoblin that is often used by the Wall Street banks is that if this or that reform is introduced, it will lessen their competitiveness, and their craftiest and most clever employees will leave the country to work for foreign banks.

Is that supposed to be a threat? That sounds like a plan. And let them deduct the price of a one way coach class ticket.

It should be painfully obvious by now, that despite his recent crocodile tears and phony fist waving, that Larry Summers and crew Obama are being bossed around by the banks, for whatever reasons that charity might prevent one from saying.

It is time for a real change, in most cases bringing back what was taken apart over the past twenty years.

If you are a bank, and you take deposits and obtain access to the Fed window and FDIC, you should do nothing other than traditional commercial on balance sheet banking. Period.

If you are an investment bank, you are a no better than a hedge fund. There should be strict limits on the quality and levels of the capital which you employ. And your partners should be exposed to the full extent of your losses. Yes, the full extent.

In the markets there needs to be position limits. If you exceed the position you get fined and surrender 100 percent of any gains. If you do it again your trader gets his license suspended. A third time and your trading license is revoked until you can prove you have gotten your internal controls together.

As for naked short selling. Forget about it. If you fail to deliver within 24 hours you are forced to cover on a market order, like a margin call.

If you receive an exemption for legitimate commercial hedging, your position is published with your name on it on a weekly basis. After all, your hedging decisions are based on information which should be disclosed, sooner rather than later.

The timely disclosure of pricing and volume information in any market is public information and should be disseminated to all parties at the same time, without predatory pricing that inhibits access by the average investor. Or better yet, just make the information feed free, and take the costs as a part of doing business as a licensed exchange.

There are criminal penalties on the books for white collar crimes. When corporations engage in fraud, those penalties should apply to the perpetrators within the firm. The current regime of wrist slap fines from the SEC to be absorbed by shareholders makes the risk-reward ratio an incentive for breaking the law. There needs to be a section of the FBI that deals only and specifically with white collar crime, not as a task force, but as part of its organizational structure.

Corporations, including non-profits, foundations and trusts, are not people, and they do not vote. Only voters should be able to contribute to political campaigns. If this creates a financial problem for politicians who rely on millions of dollar to fund elaborate media and public persuasion campaigns, well then, too bad. There is always the option to pursue public campaign funding. They might actually have to say things and stand on a genuine record actually reported by a legitimate news media.

Time to break up the media conglomerates. Period. The news organizations cannot be controlled by a few corporations. There were limitations on news outlet ownership for many years which were repealed. Bring them back. Diversity of ownership brings checks and balances.

And the financial activity of lobbyists should be limited, recorded, and disclosed on a monthly basis, and in detail. You or any member of your staff go to lunch with a lobbyist, the amount which you accept is reported along with the subject matter discussed. You are a registered lobbyist, and all your lobbying related phone calles and text messages become a matter of public record. The public deseves to hear your case as well as their representatives.

The revolving door between lawmakers, regulators, and the businesses with they oversee must be slammed shut for a period of no less than five years. Time to bone up on a trade besides influence peddling, congressman.

Would this prohibit the best minds from serving the public? Are you kidding me? Look at the government in Washington now. If those are the 'best minds' then the US is in real trouble.

If the US wants to get back on its feet, it is going to have to get serious about restoring its liberty and an even playing field for all its people.

This would be a start. Next up, tax code reform. You want a flat tax? I'll give you a flat tax....

18 October 2009

ALBA Gives Nod for Regional Currency SUCRE in Central and South America


This is not the first time ALBA has discussed plans for a regional currency, and the proposal does not yet seem to be concrete to us. The countries have agreed in principle to proceed, with the details to be worked out over the next year.

Nevertheless, it does start to chip away at Wall Street's usual answer to any dollar challenge, "Where else will they put their reserves, what else will they use for trade if not the US Dollar?" This has always seemed to be among the most arrogant, self-centered observations of an empire in recorded history. "Without us, who will tell them what to do, who will lead them, who will manage their money?" Were even the British at the turn of the 19th century that self-deluded, so blineded by the rationale of the white man's burden to manage other people's affairs?

Ecuador’s currency was called the sucre before it shifted to the US dollar nearly a decade ago. Jose Antonio de Sucre was an early 19th century South American Independence leader who fought alongside Simon Bolivar. Sucre is also the capital of Bolivia.

In this proposal, it is known as the Sistema Único de Compensación Regional (SUCRE), a new currency for intra-regional trade, to replace the US dollar in trade among several countries: Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Dominica, Saint Vincent and Antigua and Barbuda.

Most of these countries have already withdrawn their participation with the World Bank, and it's Center for International Trade disputes, which had sought to arbitrate disagreements among the countries and several western energy firms.

This may be important because Venezuela is a major source of oil imports to the US market. Will Chavez start demanding payment for his oil in the SUCRE? Will the US begin to discover the nuclear threat from Venezuela? Or merely encourage its neighbors and internal groups to challenge its sovereignty?

The exact composition of the SUCRE has not yet been disclosed, if it has been decided. Until that happens, and a firm timeline is disclosed, this is merely a proposal that has been discussed before.

The proposed sucre does not affect any discussions (if any are still continuing) with regard to the amero, which as we understand it is a potential North American regional currency amongst Mexico, the US, and Canada. If we were Canadian, we would resist that proposal with all the resources at our disposal.

But make no mistake, there are alternatives to the dollar and they are being discussed around the world. A broader based alternative that would include China and Russia among others would have more 'teeth.' Some composition including gold and silver backing of some sort, if it is sufficiently revalued higher, would give any regional currency a greater international acceptibility.

It made an impression, by the way, that this news story was first picked up here out of China, and not from any US mainstream news outlets.

And speaking of strategic moves, the US recently sought to obtain seven military bases in Colombia, strategically located in the midst of the ALBA countries.

CCTV China
ALBA member states plan new currency

2009-10-18 11:44 BJT

A meeting of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, or ALBA, has announced plans to create a new single currency to replace the US dollar. The organization's 7th Summit has concluded with an aim to stop using the greenback for trade between member states next year.

ALBA groups Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Venezuela and other regional governments. A Russian delegation also attended the two-day meeting. Leaders announced a plan to eventually create a single regional currency, the SUCRE.

They also decided to explore creating state-sponsored food and mining multinationals.

The summit also touch the Honduras issue. The ousted Honduran Foreign Minister called on the Organization of American States to implement new measures to increase pressure on the de facto government of Honduras to end the political crisis.


Preparing for the Next Crash and Unexpected Consequences: Now Is the Time


A friend sent this along, and we thought it was worth publishing an extended excerpt. This is Part 1 of the essay, and we look forward to Part Two – Managing Your Own Money – Take Action Now.

That is really the challenge isn't it. Most people are financial non-specialists. Their lives are full enough as it is, with things that they understand and that are important to them.

Too often the call to 'take control of your own money' is a prelude to 'and buy into my advice, what I wish to sell to you.'

Financial advice is a difficult thing to provide in a blog. It would be like a doctor writing a prescription for the public at large, fitting for some, inappropriate for others, potentially deadly for a few. This is why I do not do it. Ever.

The prescription I use for my personal situation is the most that I will share, in addition to general opinions and analysis of the markets and the economy. I am 58 years old, and have amassed a fair amount of savings over the past twenty years. My general rules for the current period now are:

1. Get liquid. Have little or no debt. Be in cash and diversified. Reduce living expenses to essentials.
2. Get as far away as you can from Wall Street and riskier assets as is practical.
3. Put something you can spare from discretionary retirement savings into long term assets that are not directly contingent on anyone else whom you cannot trust:

a. Personal food production, preservation, and preparation
b. Precious metals as insurance against monetary inflation / breakdown
c. Essentials for daily living and personal health care
d. Investments in practical education
e. Personal infrastructure and efficiency
f. Have a contingency plan for a systemic shock.
4. Above all be flexible. If this stagflation we are in becomes a protracted deflationary spiral or an emerging hyperinflation, both possible outcomes, we will see it happening and may need to adjust. This is where being light on debt and long on liquidity is most helpful. There is no one right plan for the unexpected, ever.

If you have 401k plans you cannot cash in, you might consider some very long term 'leap' puts to hedge them. But Cash or short term Treasuries is preferable. I have all my discretionary cash scattered across several very highly rated banks within FDIC limits. I have some money available for investment in foreign currencies although I have cashed in my loon and aussie dollar positions now. I have sold some 'collectible assets' that might have done very well if we get a prolonged period of high inflation similar to the 1970's in order to raise cash levels. I may regret this, but so be it. The cash can be deployed as the situation develops. Cash can otherwise be kept your home currency which you use on a daily basis, as long as it is safe and liquid.

If you wish raise your voice or to peacefully demonstrate, be prepared with a simple set of coherent positions and specific demands, avoiding anger. The mainstream media likes nothing better than to portray demonstrators as cranks or fools. In general they are not sympathetic to the less powerful. They will not lead change, but they will eventually follow.

Try to avoid squabbling amongst yourselves. When the reformers fight over fine points and petty egotistical issues, the status quo rejoices, often formulating and encouraging the bickering. Debate television where no serious discussion occurs, but plenty of sound bites and ad hominem attacks get thrown, is the model for media distraction. But it 'works' for the short term opportunists, and generally adds to the bread and circuses atmosphere masking an historic wealth transfer and the decline of an empire, as it has done in the past.

And as always, the banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy before there can be any sustained recovery.

Reality Arbiter
The Extinction of Ethics in Finance – The Fallout
by Greg Simmons
October 13, 2009

"...To revisit my original intention in writing this article, I cannot stress to you the importance of understanding exactly what is going on in the world. No one is to be trusted with your money. Not Wall Street, not the banks, not the government – nobody is to be trusted! Does the investing public not realize that Wall Street almost lost every penny of American wealth? Now we’re supposed to believe they’ve saved the day? I beg to differ. Those parasitic liars nearly took us to zero. Who knows, they still might.

The grossly deluded public has been at the mercy of brokers, financial advisors, Wall Street, the Fed, congress, and the US Treasury far too long. This moral hazard and subsequent uneven playing-field created by the current financial structure (the trifecta of the Fed, Treasury, and the “Banksters”) wherein the scales of balance tip only upward, hence siphoning this nation’s wealth into the coffers of those that create such hazards. Their current solutions to this crisis, a crisis of their own making, is nothing more than a replication of the same idiotic practices that got us here in the first place; corporate bailouts, homebuyer tax-rebates, foreclosure moratoriums, cash-for-clunkers, all designed to forego the inevitable sanctification of sins past and deliver them on to the US taxpayer.

The difference between the past and present is that now we have a government willing to set up shop and take over entire industries; mortgage lending, auto, banking, and who knows going into the future. Just wait, we’ll be in the airline business in no time. I feel like I’m in a perpetual state of Déjà vu - with a repeat of September 2008 barreling headlong around the next bend.

That we exist in a quasi public-private financial system wherein the government in collusion with the Fed and the “Banksters” take your money essentially by force (specifically through the leverage of ZIRP) or otherwise and shove it into new toxic instruments, bailouts, and ill-conceived stimulus programs that even these so-called best-and-brightest have no concept of the inherent risks, or hazard of unintended consequences, is proof that the entire game is rigged against you.

It is time to take control of your money.

Now, with regard to the subject of managing one’s own money, the rules of the game have officially changed. The EXTINCTION OF ETHICS in today’s financial markets IS the new rule. You must take total responsibility for the management of your own money and you must do it now! I don’t know how to make it any more clear. I could probably write an entire thesis about the utter abandonment of morality by today’s so-called investment community. I mean, does everybody have to cheat each other to make a dollar? The subject literally brings into question the human thread that binds our social fabric together.

Given the dire state of the global economy and the fact our collective economic situation has gotten significantly worse, not better, creates an opportune time to shift any misplaced philosophy of trust in a corrupt system and recognize that we’re in the middle of a COVER-UP, NOT A RECOVERY!

A comment I always appreciated and have tried to take credit for but know I plagiarized from somewhere is this; ANTICIPATING BAD LUCK IS GOOD LUCK; DEPENDING ON GOOD LUCK IS BAD LUCK. This so-called recovery is merely a papered-over facade made possible by trillions of newly created dollars. The time to prevent getting thrown back into the ditch is now. Remember, do not fall victim to the CNBC-induced epidemic of economic amnesia."

Read the entire essay here.

17 October 2009

Charles Walters: New Wealth and the Productive Economy


Here is an essay that explores the historical concept of "New Wealth" and what we call 'the productive economy.'

For us, there is a real place in the general economy for lawyers, bankers, merchants, and those who enable the organization and distribution of 'new wealth.'

It is a matter of balance. When one segment dominates the other destructive imbalance results.

When labor dominates, the economy will often slide into long periods of slow growth and cultural narrowing or even stagnation, with a badly lagging industrial development and technological innovation.

When the organizers dominate, the wealth transfer from the many to the few tends to strangle economic growth with the onset of weak-minded successors and heirs, leading to periods of degeneration as it overreaches its capability. The society becomes stratified into elites, enablers, systemic serfs, and free rabble. The imbalance of stratification stresses social cooperation and tranquility and leads to a change in governance as the organization collapses. The American Revolution was an example of this, the beginning of the end for the British Empire.

As communication and information technology improves, and behavioural persuasion becomes more sophisticated, the organizers and oligarchists can extend their domination to ever larger portions of the world population. The control of currency and commerce are almost as important as military power to the maintenance of empire. The Fall of Rome was as much an artifact of technological shortcomings, despite significant advances and innovations in the prime of the empire, exacerbated by a general weakening of governance through a corruption of leadership.

This essay is offered as a stimulus for thought and is not intended as a general endorsement of this author or his organization.

Enjoy your weekend.

THE PRIMACY OF NEW WEALTH
By Charles Walters

So 2008 is gone, leaving in its wake the end of an era conceived in iniquity, nursed along in delusion with religious propitiation to the capricious god called high finance. As promised in these newsletters and other editorials, we have already started making drastic adjustments in our political and institutional arrangements. A fuller version of the entire story is contained in my semi-autobiographical, fully historical novel, A Beast of Muddy Brain, which was released at the recent Acres U.S.A. Conference in St. Louis.

Usually the passage of an era is viewed in terms of leaders and military people who hog the pages of history. This is not the case with Beast. Here the nearly century-long story unfolds as the life of a single farmer and his family.

In this column, however, a small part of the story brought into focus by recent events lays out a few lessons found in unopened books.

Military Industrial Complex

By the time Dwight D. Eisenhower warned of a military-industrial complex in his farewell address, the complex was already a reality. Ike wanted to say, "Congressional-industrial- military complex," but his advisors convinced him to delete any reference to the "honorable ones," this in spite of their penchant for both hidden and open bribery.

The military-industrial complex was in fact launched February 27, 1947, in the White House cabinet room. The cast of characters included Secretary of State Dean Atchison, a few congressional leaders, including Republican Senator Arthur Vandenberg. The product of that meeting was the replacement of the republic with a national security state and a public policy of waging "perpetual war for perpetual peace," the last phrase a Gore Vidal quote. The first of these became characterized as cold. It became hot in Korea and tepid in terms of scale into the now present.

It was Senator Vandenberg who in effect told Harry S. Truman he could have his militarized economy if he employed the canard that the Russians were on the way. This dark secret was dressed up as the Truman Doctrine, war being the engine of credit used to save Greece, Turkey, then Europe and the rest of the world from the nearly prostrate Soviet Union.

Mark that date --- February 27, 1947. Align it with the buildup drive to pass new farm legislation and the full implementation of the new-fangled Bretton-Woods Agreement. Bretton Woods has already been described fully in this column (October 2008). The infamous farm act of 1948-1949 (the Aiken bill) has been the subject of commentary as long as this paper has been published.

The 80th Congress

Truman called the 80th Congress the worst in history. And yet its action in the matter of the Aiken bill fit hand in glove with the destruction of the simple and obvious system mandated by the U.S. Constitution. The end result that swung from the neck of the nation like a dead albatross was a provision called "60 percent of parity."

The military-industrial complex decreed that the nation's commissary could be maintained by underpaying agriculture by 40 percent, thereby releasing millions from the farms for factory work, military factory work included.

In perhaps another 50 years, economists may rediscover the awesome truth that a steady decline in farm income translated into a steady decline in national income, the ratio being 1 for agriculture, 7 for national income --- a ratio fixed by the state of the arts.

The shortfall in farm and national income became so uncomfortable during the second Eisenhower term, an injection of $72 billion was decreed for the military-industrial (and now university) complex status quo for agriculture. By the time rumblings that formed the National Farmers Organization became evident in 1955, hogs were selling for 10 cents a pound, corn 10 cents a bushel. War was ever triumphant in those days. There was a Communist under every stone, as is the case now with terrorists. Loyalty pledges were demanded, and neighbors were invited to fink on each other. By the mid-1960s, some 2,400 farms were closed down each week, the land and other assets being transferred into "a few strong hands."

What Was Wrong?

What indeed, was wrong with this equation? Agriculture --- Farm Bureau, agribusiness and academia excepted ---appealed to physics in its role as a new wealth industry and commonsense while institutional arrangements were being dismantled, and new ones constructed that were suitable to finance, esoteric manipulations, and a dream as old as Genghis Khan --- one world. Representative government of, by and for the people is now no more than a footnote in history. Only corporate America and a compliant military have true representation in Congress, the bribe is that powerful, whether paid in the dark or openly as an obscene fee for a speech while either in or out of office. The two-party vote has become so repugnant hardly half those eligible even bother with the exercise.

The Source

"The land is the source or the substance from which wealth is drawn;" wrote Richard Cantillon in Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en General, and he continues, "the work of man is the form which produces it, and wealth in itself is nothing other than food, commodities and the amenities of life."

Cantillon's treatise described the source of new earned income at a time when John Law ruled the economy of France. Cantillon and Law clashed, chiefly over the real character of money.

Law established the Banque Generale in 1715 and had it converted to a state bank three years later. His every move was designed to drive raw materials prices down while he, John Law, furnished substitutes to repair the deficit. In his own way, he developed a war against poverty, created make-work projects such as digging a canal at Briare, and he took steps to make Paris a seaport town. All tolls were abolished so that the grain trade could be "freed." Import duties were reduced on oil, leather, tallow and wines so that free trade could furnish France with cheap imports. Commodities fell in price. And new money issues were constructed by the Banque Generale, which simply monetized collateral. It took this economy only two years to explode.

After the dust settled, about the only thing left was Richard Cantillon's Essai, the masterpiece that reached the purity of theory in one lesson and limited itself to the possibilities of life in the next.

New wealth is not easily comprehended in a society addicted to wealth on the gaming table, at the end of a stock trade or embodied in currency created out of thin air by institutional arrangements that no longer ask the questions of a child: Where does it come from? Where does it go? The transition from the simple business equation to some idea of earned income at the national level that can emerge as national profits (social surplus) and savings leaves most people and most economists bewildered. They see the CEO who walks off with, say, $10 million after scuttling his company as wealth, and so it is in terms of the individual. But he has left in his wake disturbing exchange consequences and no direct effect on buildup of national profits and savings. The parasite creates no new wealth, and usually debilitates new wealth creation, because the predator merely transfers money from one pocket to another, and in terms of physics creates nothing.

There are close to one million lawyers in the United States. They transfer a great deal of money from their clients and victims into their own coffers. This transfer is called earnings. It adds to national income, but it adds nothing to national profits and savings.

Wal-Mart is said to be the largest corporation in the nation if not the world. Bentonville billionaires are now a part of American legend. Yet Wal-Mart produces no new national wealth. Like the baseball game or the professional football contest, it transfers the money called wealth by talk show hosts from one pocket to the next, but the net effect of these enterprises is to enable new wealth industries to fabricate things like baseball bats from lumber, helmets and gear from plastic --- all sourced from raw materials --- to stimulate economic activity, but adds little or no national profits and savings for stable investment.

To find the source of new wealth, we are required to examine new wealth industries.
Financial services are not new wealth creators. Quite the contrary, they make the stable dollar a relic of yesteryear because in the main they create money, but do not create the interest required to make this super-grift appear real. The grift called debt may enable instant gratification, but it also transfers the wealth of a nation into the hands of a few. That is why the interest mill delivers nations into convulsions at regular intervals in history.

In turn, debt is enabled by anything less than broad-spectrum distribution of landed resources and money income. Further, as new wealth industries are deprived of parity earnings, either instant depression or deferred depression (deferred by debt) must follow in the fullness of time.

Those French philosophers of the 18th century not only reasoned well, they forecast the inevitable as the court and its syncophants installed debauchery as public policy. Finance based on debt creation has replaced the court in our day, purchased the Congress and trapped the American worker into virtual indentured servitude. Finance now bills itself as a prime mover, not as a grim reaper that inevitably destroys the simple and obvious system gifted posterity by the Founding Fathers.

What, then, are the new wealth industries on which national solvency depends?

New Wealth Industries

It can be seen that even the making of a lead pencil involves a staggering complement of services, know-how, sales efforts, even advertising. The only part that meets the test of new wealth is the raw material component --- the lumber, the graphite, the ink for printing, all of which invite a look at nature's gift. Depending on the state of the arts, the raw materials component in products for the sales floor use up to eight times more labor than raw materials. Therefore we speak of new wealth industries as those that require a heavy raw material input.
Food to stoke the metabolic furnace of human beings comes first. It takes some 2,000 calories a day to feed a hard-working human being. That is why agriculture is the largest new wealth industry, accounting for fully 70 percent of the raw materials used to operate the economy.

Fuel, minerals, lumber, gravel, fossil fuels, fish all together account for approximately 30 percent of the raw materials used to run the economy.

The lumber used to make that No. 2 lead pencil may be a small component in the manufacture of the end product, but it is most important because along with graphite it accounts for the lion's share of national profits and savings possible based on the pencil's fabrication. People taking in each other's laundry can create employment, transferring money wealth from one pocket to the next, but that trade-off is strictly neutral in creating the profits and savings needed for sound investment and sound expansion.

Is Labor Primary?

The answer is "yes" --- but that "yes" has a codicil.

The only source for national profits and savings is the raw material input as monetized by the agency of price. That is physics speaking, once you trace those profits and savings back to their origin. That is why national profits and savings rely on new wealth industries.

It is hard not to belabor the point. Take the baseball stadium that Chamber of Commerce types chest-thump into being at the taxpayer's expense, usually with the declaration that a home team generates so-and-so much income. At the local level, it is made to look that way. But from the plane of observation called national profits and savings, the game creates nothing except the few dollars involved in bat, glove and paraphernalia manufacture and the little titanium used to mark base lines.

It is labor that enables the use of raw materials. It is labor that harvests the lumber, mines the minerals, catches the fish, grows the crop. Producers, processors, and an improved state of the arts all are essential. The apparatus of economy pyramids into national income, but not national profits and savings. The policeman, the fireman, we require their service, and their salaries help that pyramid called national income stand on its raw materials base. All facilitate civilization. But they create no national profits or savings. That chore is left to the food they eat, the clothes they wear and the gift from the planet traced to raw physical product.

The Attack

Why, then, do civilizations try to cut the legs from under the source of new wealth? It may seem an assault on the intelligence of the reader to point out that the worldwide scramble is for the control of raw materials, food included. This much stated, we have to wonder aloud why public policy always seems to cut off the nation's legs at the knees by underpricing all of agriculture and many of its other raw materials. In modern times we exacerbate this delusion by ignoring the values embodied in recyclables. The above expresses itself in food's role in energy transfer from the sun to plant to human metabolic necessity. The cycle has to replicate itself daily, monthly, annually!

Finance and debt appear to be prime movers, but they cannot substitute for national profits and savings based on raw materials without engineering convulsion at regular historical intervals.

We now know that interest doubles a debt very quickly. At 10 percent, the doubling time is seven years; at 7 percent, it is 10 years. It is interest that builds a collapse position in 80 to 90 years.

The Fed will be 100 years old on December 23, 2013.

This article is reproduced from Acres U.S.A. The Voice of Eco-Agriculture Volume 39, Number 1, January 2009.
AcresUSA.com

16 October 2009

How Goldman Sachs Leveraged $70 Billion in Government Money For Record Profits


Guess which two Wall Street banks were acting as informal agents of the government in order to support the bond and stock markets and reinflate them?

Two big banks that are showing record trading profits, and a small group of enablers and assistants.

Its a near layup when the US fronts you the money and then works with you to take the markets higher via its Working Group on Financial Markets. Especially when it is on thin volumes based on 'news' which you help to create and control via frequent calls to young Tim who is your coordinator, in addition to all your other well-placed backchannel sources. You get a heads up, you use the futures to prop the markets. You need some good news, some can be arranged. Just like the good old days when Timmy was riding herd on the NY Fed desk.

All for the good of the country. And if you happen to make a billion per month in trading profits, well, that is the price of freedom for a job well done. Besides, a lot comes back in lobbying and campaign contributions. And you get to be rather porky and demanding about new banking and derivatives regulations because after all, you have a job to do and if they won't let you do it, well its uh oh.

That's what we hear, rumour-wise. Makes as much sense out of this as anything. How about you? Max Keiser thinks it is a fraud, as he describes here.

Below is Dylan Ratigan and his guest's take on this rally and the record profits.







Life Imitates Art On Bloomberg News


Just a random thought, but the new reporter on Bloomberg television bears a remarkable resemblance to Louis Winthorpe III from Trading Places. The speech and mannerisms are an even better match than the look. To Adam's credit he actually knows the financial business, which makes him Einstein compared to the anchors Debby and Matt.



Bernanke and Summers can be the Duke Brothers.



And Timmy can be Clarence Beeks.



Life imitates art? If so where is Ophelia? Oh, she is on CNBC. Woof.

SP Weekly Chart Updated


Here is the chart we have been keeping through this decline and now into the bounce.

The bounce will end when it ends. It is a 'false flag' intended to spark a recovery in confidence and the economy. It is fueled by an enormous infusion of liquidity by the Treasury and Federal Reserve into a few favored banks, who are making the bulk of their newly found profits by trading.

The rally cannot be sustained without continuous printing of money. The difficulty with this tried and true monetary approach which has lifted the economy out of the last two bubble breaks is that the financial sector is closer to the heart of the credit bubble than tech or housing, which were just vehicles for the Ponzi scheme.

And the largesse is not being distributed evenly, as relative outsiders like Ken Lewis are finding out. "Not all animals are equal." And not all the pigs have purchased premier positions at the trough.

So, when will it end? On the charts, the area between 1060 and 1100 is likely, since it is in the area of a valid and confirmed neckline. But given the strength with which the SP has penetrated the prior resistance, one has to approach any forecast of an end to a rally like this with fear and trembling, and a generous portion of caution.

Still, our point is not to make a killing for the punters, but rather to help to illuminate the perfidy at the heart of the US financial system. It is truly amazing at how brazen it has become, especially under their token reformer.

The comments on this chart are those that had already been there. All that has been done is to update the chart from July, and to clean it up a bit for readability.


15 October 2009

An Opportunity for Purveyors of Gold in London


Le Proprietaire has favored shopping at Harrod's at holiday time for many years, and finds the Food Halls to be a delight. One has to wonder if buying gold bars 'off the shelf' in size such as this indicates that there is a market to be made in London for lower scale purchases.

The Prechterian wave weenies may see anecdotal 'signs of a top' in this, but in general they have been chasing themselves silly throughout this entire multi-year bull market.

One has to wonder if the Harrod's card could be used for this type of purchase. Do they deliver the gold in their familiar green trucks? Perhaps at least provide a reinforced shopping bag for takeaway.

Ah, a ceramic post of Stilton and a box of cream crackers. Those were the days.


Harrods adds gold bars to its luxurious image

LONDON — Glittering bait for the well-heeled shopper: Harrods department store has added gold bars to its merchandise line.

The store announced Thursday that it has joined with Swiss refiner Produits Artistiques Metaux Precieux to offer gold bars weighing 27.5 pounds (12.5 kilograms). The move comes as gold prices have been going through the roof. On Wednesday, they hit another record high of $1,072 an ounce.

Based on Thursday's afternoon gold fixing price in New York, a gold bar would cost about $462,440. Customers can buy the gold through Harrods financial arm Harrods Bank, which is located in the central London's department store (didn't that used to be Lloyds? - Jesse)

"The financial environment has kindled a new demand for physical gold amongst private investors in Britain," said Chris Hall, head of Harrods Gold Bullion.

"Up until now, however, London has had no well-recognized name serving this market," he added.

Many investors believe it is currently safer to invest in gold than in stocks, property, or currencies.

"The fact that a company like Harrods is moving into the physical gold market is interesting ," said Adrian Ash, head of research at Bullionvault.com, the online gold trading company. "It shows gold is moving back into the mainstream, having spent two decades in the arena of cranks and gold bugs."

Mehdi Bakhordar, managing director of Produits Artistiques Metaux Precieux, said Harrods was the only location in London where investors could buy a 27.5 pound (12.5 kg) gold bar "off the shelf."


Sumitomo Forecasts Dollar to 50 Yen, End of Dollar as Reserve Currency


"We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness," said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo.

Nothing goes straight up or straight down. Look for corrections in the precious metals and the dollar, and the strengthening currencies such as the Aussie dollar, which seems headed to US dollar parity. However, the macro trend is apparent.

We get a chuckle over this dollar weakness when free market people like Steve Forbes come out and look for market intervention to stop it. The market is taking the dollar where it should be, where it needs to go. If only countries with obvious pegs and ongoing manipulation to support export mercantilism were also to allow their currencies to float more freely. It is going to kill off global trade. It is the great failure of the WTO and US trade policy to have allowed pegs and overt currency manipulation policies which are de facto tariffs and subsidies on trade.

A 'crash' in the US stock market, should one occur, will temporarily jar nearly everything. More likely is a long slow slide as in the second phase of the Great Depression, from 1931 to 1933.

Monetary inflation can make the nominal charts more palatable as it is doing today. The problem is that all Ponzi schemes come to bad ends.

The only way out, the only viable path, is for the US to embrace a serious reform of its markets and its financial system, and to change system that encourages the debilitating corruption of decision-making in Washington, which is under the influence of an army of well-heeled lobbyists.

To that extent, the "straight talking" pre-Palin version of John McCain had it right. Little serious reform can be done until campaign finance and influence peddling in Washington is addressed. McCain saw the danger of this conflict of interest in his own career as part of the Keating Five, and his own party and the rise of the neo-con statism and its assault on republican ideals.

The Democrats have shown themselves to be no better, having gone down the slippery slope of Clinton capitalism, the partnership of special interests and government. Obama failed when he embraced it. And now both parties are deep in the mire of corruption.

The banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.


Bloomberg
Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says
By Shigeki Nozawa

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.

The gauge is about five points away from its record low in March 2008, and the dollar is 2.5 percent away from a 14-year low against the yen.

We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness,” said Uno, who correctly predicted the dollar would fall under 100 yen and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink below 7,000 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. If the U.S. currency breaks through record levels, “there will be no downside limit, and even coordinated intervention won’t work,” he said.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency. Hossein Ghazavi, Iran’s deputy central bank chief, said on Sept. 13 the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main currency of Iran’s foreign reserves....